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This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle—the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate and consist of economic tendency surveys results from many countries around the world. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection procedure, in which a pre-set correlation threshold and the targeted leads to the reference series are used as selection criteria. In the second stage, the selected variables are combined and transformed into the respective composite indicators, computed as the first partial least squares factor with the reference series as response variable. We analyse the characteristics of the two new indicators in a pseudo real-time setting and demonstrate that both are useful additions to the small number of indicators for the global business cycle published so far. Finally, yet importantly, the Barometers were quick to plunge in the beginning of March 2020 and have since then given a reliable real-time reflection of the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.

This paper compares algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey data at monthly and quarterly frequency. There is a wide range of imputation algorithms. To evaluate the different approaches, we apply them to series that are de facto monthly, from which we create quarterly data by deleting two out of three data points from each quarter. At the same time, the monthly series are ideal to deliver higher frequency information for multivariate imputation algorithms. With this set of indicators, we conduct imputations of monthly values, resorting to two univariate and four multivariate algorithms. We then run tests of forecasting accuracy by comparing the imputed monthly data with the actual values. Finally, we take a look at the congruence of an imputed monthly series from the quarterly survey question on firms’ capacity utilisation with other monthly data reflecting the Swiss business cycle. The results show that an algorithm based on the Chow and Lin approach, amended with a variable pre-selection procedure, delivers the most precise imputations, closely followed by the standard Chow-Lin algorithm and then multiple regression. The cubic spline and the EM algorithm do not prove useful.

Der Preisindex der Bruttowertschöpfung – Deflator der BWS – ist ein impliziter Inflationsindikator im Rahmen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR). Im vergangenen Jahr hat er sich um 5,5 % erhöht, das ist der höchste Anstieg seit der Deutschen Einheit. Klaus Abberger und Wolfgang Nierhaus diskutieren, wie das Ergebnis im VGR-Zusammenhang zu interpretieren ist. Dabei betrachten sie auch die von Preisschüben geprägten Jahre zwischen 1971 und 1981 sowie die nahezu preisstabile Schweiz.

Ein zentrales Problem in den Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR) bei der heutigen Volumenmessung in Vorjahrespreisen ist die Nicht-Additivität von verketteten Volumenwerten, d. h., eine Summe von Teilaggregaten weicht in aller Regel vom Wert des Gesamtaggregats ab. Im Allgemeinen entstehen Verkettungsdifferenzen (Residuen). Der vorliegende Beitrag geht auf die damit verbundenen Besonderheiten hinsichtlich der Berechnung von Quoten ein. In der Praxis spielen Quoten sowohl von verwendungsseitigen Aggregaten, etwa die Investitions- oder die Konsumquote, als auch von entstehungsseitigen, etwa Sektor- oder Branchenquoten, eine Rolle.

Monthly changes in the Ifo Business Climate can be converted into probabilities for both the 'expansion' and/or 'contraction' phase of the economic cycle using a Markov switching model. These probabilities - presented in the ifo Konjunkturampel - offer key information for the early detection of economic turning points. The changeover of the seasonal adjustment process used in the Ifo Business Climate to the census X-13ARIMA-SEATS procedure called for a recalculation of the ifo Konjunkturampel. This article presents the methods used and their results.

Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a scarce data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal disaggregation, which is often used by statistical offices. The discussed tools are applied in a case study for Abu Dhabi. Because the economy of Abu Dhabi is very dependent on oil, real income reflects the economic situation better than real gross domestic product (GDP). For this reason a measure of real gross domestic income (GDI) was chosen as reference series.Keywords: Business cycle indicators, temporal disaggregation, terms of trade, oilproducing countries JEL code: E01, E32, C22

The Ifo Business climate for trade and industry in Germany brightened for the third time in succession in January. The improvement was primarily driven by participants' expectations, which are less cautious than previously. According to reports by survey participants, however, the current business situation is worse than in December. Overall, the German economy started the year positively. [PUB ABSTRACT]

The Ifo Business climate for trade and industry in Germany brightened for the third time in succession in January. The improvement was primarily driven by participants' expectations, which are less cautious than previously. According to reports by survey participants, however, the current business situation is worse than in December. Overall, the German economy started the year positively. [PUB ABSTRACT]

The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in Germany continued to improve in December after stabilising in the previous month. Survey participants' responses showed that their assessment of the current business situation continues to remain favourable. The German economy seems to be successfully countering the downturn in Western Europe. [PUB ABSTRACT]