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BACKGROUND : The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS : We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration–response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS : On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration–response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS : Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies.

We studied the potential synergy between air pollution and meteorology and their impact on mortality in nine European cities with data from 2004 to 2010. We used daily series of Apparent Temperature (AT), measurements of particulate matter (PM10), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. We applied Poisson regression for city-specific analysis and random effects meta-analysis to combine city-specific results, separately for the warm and cold seasons. In the warm season, the percentage increase in all deaths from natural causes per °C increase in AT tended to be greater during high ozone days, although this was only significant for all ages when all causes were considered. On low ozone days, the increase in the total daily number of deaths was 1.84% (95% CI 0.87, 2.82), whilst it was 2.20% (95% CI 1.28, 3.13) in the high ozone days per 1 °C increase in AT. Interaction with PM10 was significant for cardiovascular (CVD) causes of death for all ages (2.24% on low PM10 days (95% CI 1.01, 3.47) whilst it is 2.63% (95% CI 1.57, 3.71) on high PM10 days) and for ages 75+. In days with heat waves, no consistent pattern of interaction was observed. For the cold period, no evidence for synergy was found. In conclusion, some evidence of interactive effects between hot temperature and the levels of ozone and PM10 was found, but no consistent synergy could be identified during the cold season.

Background The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Methods Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. Results The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Conclusions Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

Background: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. Methods: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. Results: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4°C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3°C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Epidemiological studies have linked daily concentrations of urban air pollution to mortality, but few have investigated specific traffic sources that can inform abatement policies. We assembled a database of >100 daily, measured and modelled pollutant concentrations characterizing air pollution in London between 2011 and 2012. Based on the analyses of temporal patterns and correlations between the metrics, knowledge of local emission sources and reference to the existing literature, we selected, a priori , markers of traffic pollution: oxides of nitrogen (general traffic); elemental and black carbon (EC/BC) (diesel exhaust); carbon monoxide (petrol exhaust); copper (tyre), zinc (brake) and aluminium (mineral dust). Poisson regression accounting for seasonality and meteorology was used to estimate the percentage change in risk of death associated with an interquartile increment of each pollutant. Associations were generally small with confidence intervals that spanned 0% and tended to be negative for cardiovascular mortality and positive for respiratory mortality. The strongest positive associations were for EC and BC adjusted for particle mass and respiratory mortality, 2.66% (95% confidence interval: 0.11, 5.28) and 2.72% (0.09, 5.42) per 0.8 and 1.0  μ g/m 3 , respectively. These associations were robust to adjustment for other traffic metrics and regional pollutants, suggesting a degree of specificity with respiratory mortality and diesel exhaust containing EC/BC.

Introduction Epidemiological studies have documented the health effects of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, while there is a growing number of studies looking into associations with one of its main components elemental carbon (EC) and its related metrics such as black carbon (BC), black smoke (BS) or aerosol light absorption coefficient often referred as “PM absorbance”. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on the associations between long-term exposure to elemental carbon (EC) and disease incidence. Methods We searched for studies published up to April 2025, assessing long-term to EC-related exposure (also including BC, BS, PM absorbance) and incidence of ischemic heart disease (IHD), asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer in adults, and asthma and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children. We pooled effect estimates by random-effects models and investigated heterogeneity by region and risk of bias assessments. The certainty of the evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment Development approach. Results We included 51 studies assessing long-term exposure to EC and disease incidence. The pooled relative risk (RR) for a 1 µg/m 3 increase in EC was 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.17), 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.05), for incidence of lung cancer and IHD in adults, while a null association was observed for COPD risk. We estimated RR 1.06 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.21) and 1.37 (95% CI: 0.89, 2.04) for asthma and ALRI in children respectively. There was moderate to high heterogeneity in all associations, with the exception of lung cancer incidence for which the certainty of evidence was rated high. Conclusions Our meta-analysis supports an increased risk of lung cancer following long term exposure to EC and indicates associations for IHD in adults and respiratory outcomes in children. Although the evidence base on the effects of EC on diseases incidence has been increasing, further research is needed in the associations between long- term exposure to EC and various diseases’ incidence.

The independent effects of short-term exposure to increased air temperature and air pollution on mortality are well-documented. There is some evidence indicating that elevated concentrations of air pollutants may lead to increased heat-related mortality, but this evidence is not consistent. Most of these effects have been documented through time-series studies using city-wide data, rather than at a finer spatial level. In our study, we examined the possible modification of the heat effects on total and cause-specific mortality by air pollution at municipality level in the Attica region, Greece, during the warm period of the years 2000 to 2016.

Background Although the associations of outdoor air pollution exposure with mortality and hospital admissions are well established, few previous studies have reported on primary care clinical and prescribing data. We assessed the associations of short and long-term pollutant exposures with General Practitioner respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions. Methods Daily primary care data, for 2009–2013, were obtained from Lambeth DataNet (LDN), an anonymised dataset containing coded data from all patients (1.2 million) registered at general practices in Lambeth, an inner-city south London borough. Counts of respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions by day and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence were constructed. We developed models for predicting daily PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 and O 3 per LSOA. We used spatio-temporal mixed effects zero inflated negative binomial models to investigate the simultaneous short- and long-term effects of exposure to pollutants on the number of events. Results The mean concentrations of NO 2 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 and O 3 over the study period were 50.7, 21.2, 15.6, and 49.9 μg/m 3 respectively, with all pollutants except NO 2 having much larger temporal rather than spatial variability. Following short-term exposure increases to PM 10 , NO 2 and PM 2.5 the number of consultations and inhaler prescriptions were found to increase, especially for PM 10 exposure in children which was associated with increases in daily respiratory consultations of 3.4% and inhaler prescriptions of 0.8%, per PM 10 interquartile range (IQR) increase. Associations further increased after adjustment for weekly average exposures, rising to 6.1 and 1.2%, respectively, for weekly average PM 10 exposure. In contrast, a short-term increase in O 3 exposure was associated with decreased number of respiratory consultations. No association was found between long-term exposures to PM 10 , PM 2.5 and NO 2 and number of respiratory consultations. Long-term exposure to NO 2 was associated with an increase (8%) in preventer inhaler prescriptions only. Conclusions We found increases in the daily number of GP respiratory consultations and inhaler prescriptions following short-term increases in exposure to NO 2 , PM 10 and PM 2.5 . These associations are more pronounced in children and persist for at least a week. The association with long term exposure to NO 2 and preventer inhaler prescriptions indicates likely increased chronic respiratory morbidity.

Background Particulate matter air pollution has been associated with adverse health effects. The fraction of ambient particles that are mainly responsible for the observed health effects is still a matter of controversy. Better characterization of the health relevant particle fraction will have major implications for air quality policy since it will determine which sources should be controlled. The RUPIOH study, an EU-funded multicentre study, was designed to examine the distribution of various ambient particle metrics in four European cities (Amsterdam, Athens, Birmingham, Helsinki) and assess their health effects in participants with asthma or COPD, based on a detailed exposure assessment. In this paper the association of central site measurements with respiratory symptoms and restriction of activities is examined. Methods At each centre a panel of participants with either asthma or COPD recorded respiratory symptoms and restriction of activities in a diary for six months. Exposure assessment included simultaneous measurements of coarse, fine and ultrafine particles at a central site. Data on gaseous pollutants were also collected. The associations of the 24-hour average concentrations of air pollution indices with the health outcomes were assessed in a hierarchical modelling approach. A city specific analysis controlling for potential confounders was followed by a meta-analysis to provide overall effect estimates. Results A 10 μg/m 3 increase in previous day coarse particles concentrations was positively associated with most symptoms (an increase of 0.6 to 0.7% in average) and limitation in walking (OR= 1.076, 95% CI: 1.026-1.128). Same day, previous day and previous two days ozone concentrations were positively associated with cough (OR= 1.061, 95% CI: 1.013-1.111; OR= 1.049, 95% CI: 1.016-1.083 and OR= 1.059, 95% CI: 1.027-1.091, respectively). No consistent associations were observed between fine particle concentrations, nitrogen dioxide and respiratory health effects. As for particle number concentrations negative association (mostly non-significant at the nominal level) was observed with most symptoms whilst the positive association with limitation of activities did not reach the nominal level of significance. Conclusions The observed associations with coarse particles are in agreement with the findings of toxicological studies. Together they suggest it is prudent to regulate also coarse particles in addition to fine particles.

ObjectiveTo study trends of infant mortality rate (IMR) and neonatal mortality rate in Greece during the period 2004–2016 and explore the role of sociodemographic factors in the years of crisis.DesignNationwide individual data for live births and infant (0–11 months) deaths provided by the Hellenic Statistical Authority were examined using Poisson, joinpoint regression and interrupted time series (ITS) analyses.SettingGreece.ParticipantsAll infant deaths (n=4862) over the 13-year period, of which 87.2% were born to Greek mothers, and respective live births.Main outcome measuresEvolution of IMR (0–364 days), early (<7 days) neonatal mortality rate (ENMR), late (7–27 days) neonatal mortality rate (LNMR) and post neonatal (28–364 days) mortality rate (PNMR) trends, by maternal nationality, place of residence and Human Development Index (HDI).ResultsBy Poisson regression, overall, during the study period, among infants of Greek mothers, IMR and PNMR declined significantly (−0.9%; 95% CI −1.7% to −0.1% and −1.6%; −3.0% to −0.2% annually, respectively), although differentially by place of residence (IMRurban: −2.1%; −2.9% to −1.3%, IMRrural: +10.6%; 7.6% to 13.6%). By contrast, among infants of non-Greek mothers, the low starting IMR/ENMR/LNMR/PNMR increased significantly (max ENMR:+12.5%; 8.6% to 16.5%) leading to a non-significant time–trend pattern overall in Greece. The inverse associations of HDI with IMR, ENMR and PNMR were restricted to Greek mothers’ infants. Joinpoint regression analyses among Greek mothers’ infants indicated non-significant increasing trends of IMR and ENMR following the crisis (+9.3%, 2012–2016, p=0.07 and +10.2%, 2011–2016, p=0.06, respectively). By contrast, the high (+17.1%; 8.1% to 26.9%, p=0.002) IMR increases among non-Greek infants were restricted to 2004–2011 and equalised to those of Greek mothers’ infants thereafter. ITS analyses in preset years (2008, 2010, 2012) identified significantly increasing trends in IMR, LNMR and PNMR after 2012, and in ENMR after 2010, among Greek mothers’ infants.ConclusionsHDI and rural residence were significantly associated with IMR. The strongly decreasing IMR trends among Greek-mothers’ infants were stagnated after a lag time of ~4 years of crisis approximating the previously sharply increasing trends among non-Greeks.