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result(s) for
"Benduhn, Francois"
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Impacts of aviation fuel sulfur content on climate and human health
by
Pringle, Kirsty J.
,
Kapadia, Zarashpe Z.
,
Butt, Edward W.
in
Aerosol clouds
,
Aerosol effects
,
Aerosols
2016
Aviation emissions impact both air quality and climate. Using a coupled tropospheric chemistry-aerosol microphysics model we investigate the effects of varying aviation fuel sulfur content (FSC) on premature mortality from long-term exposure to aviation-sourced PM2.5 (particulate matter with a dry diameter of < 2.5 µm) and on the global radiation budget due to changes in aerosol and tropospheric ozone. We estimate that present-day non-CO2 aviation emissions with a typical FSC of 600 ppm result in ∼ 3600 [95 % CI: 1310–5890] annual premature mortalities globally due to increases in cases of cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer, resulting from increased surface PM2.5 concentrations. We quantify the global annual mean combined radiative effect (REcomb) of non-CO2 aviation emissions as −13.3 mW m−2; from increases in aerosols (direct radiative effect and cloud albedo effect) and tropospheric ozone. Ultra-low sulfur jet fuel (ULSJ; FSC = 15 ppm) has been proposed as an option to reduce the adverse health impacts of aviation-induced PM2.5. We calculate that swapping the global aviation fleet to ULSJ fuel would reduce the global aviation-induced mortality rate by ∼ 620 [95 % CI: 230–1020] mortalities a−1 and increase REcomb by +7.0 mW m−2. We explore the impact of varying aviation FSC between 0 and 6000 ppm. Increasing FSC increases aviation-induced mortality, while enhancing climate cooling through increasing the aerosol cloud albedo effect (CAE). We explore the relationship between the injection altitude of aviation emissions and the resulting climate and air quality impacts. Compared to the standard aviation emissions distribution, releasing aviation emissions at the ground increases global aviation-induced mortality and produces a net warming effect, primarily through a reduced CAE. Aviation emissions injected at the surface are 5 times less effective at forming cloud condensation nuclei, reducing the aviation-induced CAE by a factor of 10. Applying high FSCs at aviation cruise altitudes combined with ULSJ fuel at lower altitudes results in reduced aviation-induced mortality and increased negative RE compared to the baseline aviation scenario.
Journal Article
Climate emergencies do not justify engineering the climate
by
Lenton, Timothy M.
,
Horton, Joshua B.
,
Hulme, Mike
in
704/106/694/682
,
704/844/2175
,
706/648/179
2015
Current climate engineering proposals do not come close to addressing the complex and contested nature of conceivable 'climate emergencies' resulting from unabated greenhouse-gas emissions.
Journal Article
Size-resolved simulations of the aerosol inorganic composition with the new hybrid dissolution solver HyDiS-1.0: description, evaluation and first global modelling results
by
Carslaw, Kenneth S
,
Benduhn, François
,
Pringle, Kirsty J
in
Accuracy
,
Acids
,
Aerosol particles
2016
The dissolution of semi-volatile inorganic gases such as ammonia and nitric acid into the aerosol aqueous phase has an important influence on the composition, hygroscopic properties, and size distribution of atmospheric aerosol particles. The representation of dissolution in global models is challenging due to inherent issues of numerical stability and computational expense. For this reason, simplified approaches are often taken, with many models treating dissolution as an equilibrium process. In this paper we describe the new dissolution solver HyDiS-1.0, which was developed for the global size-resolved simulation of aerosol inorganic composition. The solver applies a hybrid approach, which allows for some particle size classes to establish instantaneous gas-particle equilibrium, whereas others are treated time dependently (or dynamically). Numerical accuracy at a competitive computational expense is achieved by using several tailored numerical formalisms and decision criteria, such as for the time- and size-dependent choice between the equilibrium and dynamic approaches. The new hybrid solver is shown to have numerical stability across a wide range of numerical stiffness conditions encountered within the atmosphere. For ammonia and nitric acid, HyDiS-1.0 is found to be in excellent agreement with a fully dynamic benchmark solver. In the presence of sea salt aerosol, a somewhat larger bias is found under highly polluted conditions if hydrochloric acid is represented as a third semi-volatile species. We present first results of the solver's implementation into a global aerosol microphysics and chemistry transport model. We find that (1) the new solver predicts surface concentrations of nitrate and ammonium in reasonable agreement with observations over Europe, the USA, and East Asia, (2) models that assume gas-particle equilibrium will not capture the partitioning of nitric acid and ammonia into Aitken-mode-sized particles, and thus may be missing an important pathway through which secondary particles may grow to radiation- and cloud-interacting size, and (3) the new hybrid solver's computational expense is modest, at around 10% of total computation time in these simulations.
Journal Article