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Background HPV16/18 detection may improve cervical cancer risk stratification and better guide which HPV-positive women warrant immediate colposcopy/biopsy. We estimated risks of cervical precancer and cancer by HPV genotype and cytology during the implementation phase of primary HPV testing in Norway. Methods A total of 3111 women, aged 34–69 years, testing HPV-positive at baseline and undergoing cytology testing from February 2015 to April 2018 had data available for analysis. Risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or more severe (CIN3+) were estimated for cytology results and HPV genotypes (HPV16, HPV18, and other high-risk HPV). Results CIN3+ risks were higher for HPV16/18 than other high-risk HPV genotypes. Among women with any cytologic abnormality [atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse], immediate risks were 57.8% (95%CI = 53.0–62.6%) for HPV16, 40.2% (95%CI = 32.3–49.2%) for HPV18, and 31.4% (95%CI = 28.7–34.3%) for other high-risk HPV. Among those with normal cytology, CIN3+ risks were 19.9% (95%CI = 15.0–26.1%) for HPV16 positives, 10.8% (95%CI = 5.6–20.5%) for HPV18 positives, and 5.5% (95%CI = 4.2–7.1%) for other high-risk HPV. Conclusions The benefits and harms of managing women based on HPV positivity and cytology results can be better balanced by inclusion of HPV genotyping in screening and choosing more conservative management for other high-risk HPV compared to HPV16/18.

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 (CIN1) is often managed by active surveillance, as the risk of progression to high grade lesions is reported to be low, but long-term data is sparse. To inform management of CIN1, we estimated risk of progression and occurrence of treatment in women attending a cervical cancer screening program. We used nationwide, registry data on all women aged 25-69 years attending the Norwegian Cervical Cancer Screening Program in 2002-2019. The eligible source population was women with at least one cytology registration (n = 1,771,876). Women with a histologically confirmed, first CIN1 diagnosis were included (n = 26,130) and followed for detection of CIN2+, defined as histologically confirmed CIN2, CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), or cervical cancer. CIN3+ was defined as CIN3, AIS, or cervical cancer. Treatment included both excision and ablation. Overall, the cumulative incidence of CIN2+ increased to 9.5% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.8 to 9.5) during the first year and to 19.0% (95% CI, 18.4-19.5) during the first five years. For women with high-grade cytology, 5-year cumulative incidence reached 26.0% (95% CI, 25.0-27.0), whereas for women with normal or low-grade cytology, but HPV16 and/or HPV18 positive status, the corresponding estimate was 25.0% (95% CI, 23.3-26.8). Other high-risk HPV genotypes and HPV negative status were associated with lower risks (5-year cumulative incidence 15.5% (95% CI, 14.5-16.6) and 8.2% (95% CI, 7.1-9.5), respectively). Detection of CIN3+ was substantial (cumulative incidence 5.7% (95% CI, 5.4-6.0) and 12.7% (95% CI, 12.2-13.1) after 1 and 5 years, respectively), and overall, cumulative incidence of treatment was 15.2% (95% CI, 14.7-15.7) after 5 years, following similar patterns as observed for CIN2+. A differentiation of follow-up guidelines by index cytology and HPV16/18 status for women diagnosed with CIN1, might be warranted.

The association between folic acid supplementation and birth defects other than neural tube defects (NTD) remains unclear. We used a log-binomial regression model to investigate if periconceptional folic acid and/or multivitamin use was associated with birth defects in Norway with prospectively collected data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (MBRN) during 1999–2013. We used the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) classification system to define eleven organ-specific major birth defect groups (nervous system, eye, ear–face–neck, cardiovascular system, respiratory system, oral clefts, digestive system, abdominal wall, urinary system, genital organs and limb), with additional subgroups. Fetuses or infants whose mothers used folic acid and/or multivitamin supplements before and during pregnancy were classified as exposed. During the years 1999–2013, 888 294 (99·0 %) live-born infants, 6633 (0·7 %) stillborn infants and 2135 (0·2 %) fetuses from terminated pregnancies due to fetal anomalies were registered in the MBRN. Among the live- and stillborn infants of women who used vitamin supplements compared with infants of non-users, the adjusted relative risk (aRR) was 0·94 (95 % CI 0·91, 0·98) for total birth defects (n 18 382). Supplement use was associated with reduced risk of abdominal wall defects (aRR 0·58; 95 % CI 0·42, 0·80, n 377), genital organ defects (aRR 0·81; 95 % CI 0·72, 0·91, n 2299) and limb defects (aRR 0·81; 95 % CI 0·74, 0·90, n 3409). Protective associations were also suggested for NTD, respiratory system defects and digestive system defects although CI included the null value of 1. During the full study period, statistically significant associations between supplement use and defects in the eye, ear–face–neck, heart or oral clefts were not observed.

Prospective studies have indicated that elevated blood glucose levels may be linked with increased cancer risk, but the strength of the association is unclear. We examined the association between blood glucose and cancer risk in a prospective study of six European cohorts. The Metabolic syndrome and Cancer project (Me-Can) includes cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden; the current study included 274,126 men and 275,818 women. Mean age at baseline was 44.8 years and mean follow-up time was 10.4 years. Excluding the first year of follow-up, 18,621 men and 11,664 women were diagnosed with cancer, and 6,973 men and 3,088 women died of cancer. We used Cox regression models to calculate relative risk (RR) for glucose levels, and included adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and smoking status in the analyses. RRs were corrected for regression dilution ratio of glucose. RR (95% confidence interval) per 1 mmol/l increment of glucose for overall incident cancer was 1.05 (1.01-1.10) in men and 1.11 (1.05-1.16) in women, and corresponding RRs for fatal cancer were 1.15 (1.07-1.22) and 1.21 (1.11-1.33), respectively. Significant increases in risk among men were found for incident and fatal cancer of the liver, gallbladder, and respiratory tract, for incident thyroid cancer and multiple myeloma, and for fatal rectal cancer. In women, significant associations were found for incident and fatal cancer of the pancreas, for incident urinary bladder cancer, and for fatal cancer of the uterine corpus, cervix uteri, and stomach. Data from our study indicate that abnormal glucose metabolism, independent of BMI, is associated with an increased risk of cancer overall and at several cancer sites. Our data showed stronger associations among women than among men, and for fatal cancer compared to incident cancer. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

To investigate the association between total serum cholesterol (TSC) and cancer incidence in the Metabolic syndrome and Cancer project (Me-Can). Me-Can consists of seven cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden including 289,273 male and 288,057 female participants prospectively followed up for cancer incidence (n = 38,978) with a mean follow-up of 11.7 years. Cox regression models with age as the underlying time metric were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for quintiles of cholesterol levels and per 1 mmol/l, adjusting for age at first measurement, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status. Estimates were corrected for regression dilution bias. Furthermore, we performed lag time analyses, excluding different times of follow-up, in order to check for reverse causation. In men, compared with the 1st quintile, TSC concentrations in the 5th quintile were borderline significantly associated with decreasing risk of total cancer (HR = 0.94; 95%CI: 0.88, 1.00). Significant inverse associations were observed for cancers of the liver/intrahepatic bile duct (HR = 0.14; 95%CI: 0.07, 0.29), pancreas cancer (HR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.81), non-melanoma of skin (HR = 0.67; 95%CI: 0.46, 0.95), and cancers of the lymph-/hematopoietic tissue (HR = 0.68, 95%CI: 0.54, 0.87). In women, hazard ratios for the 5th quintile were associated with decreasing risk of total cancer (HR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.79, 0.93) and for cancers of the gallbladder (HR = 0.23, 95%CI: 0.08, 0.62), breast (HR = 0.70, 95%CI: 0.61, 0.81), melanoma of skin (HR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.42, 0.88), and cancers of the lymph-/hematopoietic tissue (HR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.44, 0.83). TSC was negatively associated with risk of cancer overall in females and risk of cancer at several sites in both males and females. In lag time analyses some associations persisted, suggesting that for these cancer sites reverse causation did not apply.

BackgroundCervical cancer screening participation is suboptimal in most settings. We assessed whether human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling may increase screening participation among long-term non-attenders in Norway.MethodsA pragmatic randomised controlled trial with participation as the primary outcome was initiated in the national cervical screening programme in March 2019. A random sample of 6000 women aged 35–69 years who had not attended screening for at least 10 years were randomised 1:1:1 to receive either (i) a reminder to attend regular screening (control), (ii) an offer to order a self-sampling kit (opt-in) for HPV testing or (iii) a self-sampling kit unsolicited (send-to-all) for HPV testing.ResultsTotal participation was 4.8%, 17.0% and 27.7% among control, opt-in and send-to-all (P < 0.0001; participation difference (%) send-to-all vs. control: 22.9 (95%CI: 20.7, 25.2); opt-in vs. control: 12.3 (95%CI: 10.3, 14.2); send-to-all vs. opt-in: 10.7 (95% CI: 8.0, 13.3)). High-risk HPV was detected in 11.5% of self-samples and 9.2% of clinician-collected samples (P = 0.40). Most women (92.5%) who returned a positive self-sample attended the clinic for triage testing. Of the 933 women screened, 33 (3.5%) had CIN2 + (1.1%, 3.7%, 3.8% among control, opt-in, and send-to-all, respectively), and 11 (1.2%) had cervical cancer (0%, 1.2%, 1.3% among control, opt-in, send-to-all, respectively).ConclusionOpt-in and send-to-all self-sampling increased screening participation among long-term, higher-risk non-attenders.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03873376.

Background Insulin resistance is a hypothesised biological mechanism linking obesity with prostate cancer (PCa) death. Data in support of this hypothesis is limited. Methods We included 259,884 men from eight European cohorts, with 11,760 incident PCa’s and 1784 PCa deaths during follow-up. We used the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index as indicator of insulin resistance. We analysed PCa cases with follow-up from PCa diagnosis, and the full cohort with follow-up from the baseline cancer-free state, thus incorporating both PCa incidence and death. We calculated hazard ratios (HR) and the proportion of the total effect of body mass index (BMI) on PCa death mediated through TyG index. Results In the PCa-case-only analysis, baseline TyG index was positively associated with PCa death (HR per 1-standard deviation: 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI); 1.01–1.22), and mediated a substantial proportion of the baseline BMI effect on PCa death (HR total effect per 5-kg/m 2 BMI: 1.24; 1.14–1.35, of which 28%; 4%–52%, mediated). In contrast, in the full cohort, the TyG index was not associated with PCa death (HR: 1.03; 0.94-1.13), hence did not substantially mediate the effect of BMI on PCa death. Conclusions Insulin resistance could be an important pathway through which obesity accelerates PCa progression to death.

Purpose: To assess the association between height and risk of cancer and cancer death. Methods: The metabolic syndrome and cancer project is a prospective pooled cohort study of 585,928 participants from seven cohorts in Austria, Norway, and Sweden. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer incidence and death were estimated in height categories and per 5-cm increment for each cancer site using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: During a mean follow-up of 12.7 years (SD = 7.2), 38,862 participants were diagnosed with cancer and 13,547 participants died of cancer. Increased height (per 5-cm increment) was associated with an increased overall cancer risk in women, HR 1.07 (95 % CI 1.06–1.09), and in men, HR 1.04 (95 % CI 1.03–1.06). The highest HR was seen for malignant melanoma in women, HR 1.17 (95 % CI 1.11–1.24), and in men HR 1.12 (95 % CI 1.08–1.19). Height was also associated with increased risk of cancer death in women, HR 1.03 (95 % CI 1.01–1.16), and in men, HR 1.03 (95 % CI 1.01–1.05). The highest HR was observed for breast cancer death in postmenopausal women (>60 years), HR 1.10 (95 % CI 1.00–1.21), and death from renal cell carcinoma in men, HR 1.18 (95 % CI 1.07–1.30). All these associations were independent of body mass index. Conclusion: Height was associated with risk of cancer and cancer death indicating that factors related to height such as hormonal and genetic factors stimulate both cancer development and progression.

Background We compared women with incident cervical cancer under the age of 30 with older women with regard to stage, morphology, screening history and cervical cancer mortality in a population-based cohort study. Methods We included data from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Incidence rates (per 100,000 women-years) were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to analyse trends. The Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazard function for risk of cervical cancer death during a 15-year follow-up was displayed. The hazard ratios (HRs) of cervical cancer mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived from Cox regression models. Results The incidence of cervical cancer in women under the age of 30 has almost tripled since the 1950s, with the steepest increase during 1955–80 (with an annual percentage change (APC) of 7.1% (95%CI 4.4–9.8)) and also an increase after 2004 (3.8% (95%CI -1.3–9.2)). Out of 21,160 women with cervical cancer (1953–2013), 5.3% were younger than 30 years. A lower proportion of younger women were diagnosed at more advanced stages and a slightly higher proportion were diagnosed with adenocarcinoma and adenosquamous carcinoma comparing women above 30 years. The cumulative risk of cervical cancer death was lower for patients under the age of 30. However, the difference between the age groups decreased over time. The overall adjusted HR of cervical cancer mortality was 0.69 (95% CI 0.58–0.82) in women diagnosed under the age of 30 compared to older women. Conclusion There has been an increase in cervical cancer incidence in women under the age of 30. Cervical cancer in younger women was not more advanced at diagnosis compared to older women, and the cervical cancer mortality was lower.

Background Obesity is associated with an increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and a decreased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, little is known about the risk of EAC and ESCC related to other metabolic risk factors. We aimed to examine the risk of EAC and ESCC in relation to metabolic risk factors, separately and combined in a prospective cohort study. Methods The Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer cohort includes prospective cohorts in Austria, Norway and Sweden, with blood pressure, lipids, glucose and BMI available from 578 700 individuals. Relative risk (RR) for EAC and ESCC was calculated using Cox’s proportional hazards analysis for metabolic risk factors categorized into quintiles and transformed into z-scores. The standardized sum of all z-scores was used as a composite score for the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Results In total, 324 histologically verified cases of esophageal cancer were identified (114 EAC, 184 ESCC and 26 with other histology). BMI was associated with an increased risk of EAC (RR 7.34 (95% confidence interval, 2.88-18.7) top versus bottom quintile) and negatively associated with the risk of ESCC (RR 0.38 (0.23-0.62)). The mean value of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (mid blood pressure) was associated with the risk of ESCC (RR 1.77 (1.37-2.29)). The composite MetS score was associated with the risk of EAC (RR 1.56 (1.19-2.05) per one unit increase of z-score) but not ESCC. Conclusions In accordance with previous studies, high BMI was associated with an increased risk of EAC and a decreased risk of ESCC. An association between high blood pressure and risk of ESCC was observed but alcohol consumption is a potential confounding factor that we were not able to adjust for in the analysis. The MetS was associated with EAC but not ESCC. However this association was largely driven by the strong association between BMI and EAC. We hypothesize that this association is more likely to be explained by factors directly related to obesity than the metabolic state of the MetS, considering that no other metabolic factor than BMI was associated with EAC.