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HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa. Fine-scale estimates of the prevalence of HIV in adults across sub-Saharan Africa reveal substantial within-country variation and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in the prevalence of HIV between 2000 and 2017.

Background The effect of the ongoing war in Yemen on maternal and child health (MCH) has not been comprehensively assessed. Providing a situational analysis at the governorate level is critical to assist in planning a response and allocating resources. Methods We used multiple national- and governorate-level data sources to provide estimates of 12 relevant MCH indicators in 2016 around child vaccination, and child and maternal nutritional status, and the change in these estimates for the period 2013–2016 based on shock variables including change in gross domestic product, burden of airstrikes per 1000 population, change in access to untreated water sources and unimproved toilets, and change in wheat flour prices. We also used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. Results Vaccine coverage decreased for all antigens between 2013 and 2016 among children 12–23 months. The largest decrease, 36·4% for first-dose measles vaccine, was in Aden. Among children under the age of five, incidence of diarrhea was at 7·0 (5·5–8·9) episodes per person-year. The prevalence of moderate and severe child anemia ranged from 50·9% (24·9–73·1) in Sana’a City to 97·8% (94·1–99·2) in Shabwah in 2016. Prevalence of underweight among women of reproductive age ranged from 15·3% (8·1–24·6) in Sana’a city to 32·1% (24·1–39·7) in Hajjah, with a national average of 24·6% (18·7–31·5). Conclusions The war and siege on Yemen has had a devastating impact on the health of women and children. Urgent efforts to secure food, essential medicines, antibiotics, deworming medicine, and hygiene kits, and cold chains for immunization are needed. Yemen is in dire need of clean water and proper sanitation to reduce the spread of disease, especially diarrhea.

Background HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50–60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15–49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence. Methods We analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15–49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results We found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas. Conclusions Despite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

More than 20 years have passed since the first publication of estimates of the extent of medical harm occurring in hospitals in the United States. Since then, considerable resources have been allocated to improve patient safety, yet policymakers lack a clear gauge of the progress made. To quantify the cause-specific mortality associated with adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) in the United States from 1990 to 2016 by age group, sex, and state of residence and to describe trends in types of harm and associations with other diseases and injuries. Cohort study using 1990-2016 data on mortality due to AEMT from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study, which assessed death certificates of US decedents. Death with International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded registration. Mortality associated with AEMT. Secondary analyses were performed on all ICD codes in the death certificate's causal chain to describe associations between AEMT and other diseases and injuries. From 1990 to 2016, there were an estimated 123 603 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 100 856-163 814 deaths) with AEMT as the underlying cause. Despite an overall increase in the number of deaths due to AEMT over time, the national age-standardized mortality rate due to AEMT decreased by 21.4% (95% UI, 1.3%-32.2%) from 1.46 (95% UI, 1.09-1.76) deaths per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1.15 (95% UI, 1.00-1.60) deaths per 100 000 population in 2016. Men and women had similar rates of AEMT mortality, and those 70 years or older had mortality rates nearly 20-fold greater compared with those aged 15 to 49 years (mortality rate in 2016 for both sexes, 7.93 [95% UI, 7.23-11.45] per 100 000 population for those aged ≥70 years vs 0.38 [95% UI, 0.34-0.43] per 100 000 population for those aged 15-49 years). Per 100 000 population, California had the lowest age-standardized AEMT mortality rate at 0.84 deaths (95% UI, 0.57-1.47 deaths), whereas Mississippi had the highest mortality rate at 1.67 deaths (95% UI, 1.19-2.03 deaths). Surgical and perioperative events were the most common subtype of AEMT, accounting for 63.6% of all deaths for which an AEMT was identified as the underlying cause. This study's findings suggest a modest reduction in the mortality rate associated with AEMT in the United States from 1990 to 2016 while also observing increased mortality associated with advancing age and noted geographic variability. The annual GBD releases may allow for tracking of the burden of AEMT in the United States.

India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality. We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level. U5MR in India decreased from 83·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·7–90·1) in 2000 to 42·4 (36·5–50·0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38·0 (34·2–41·6) to 23·5 (20·1–27·8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5·7 times between the states of India and 10·5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4·5 times and 8·0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9·02% (95% UI 6·30–11·63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8·05% (95% UI 5·34–10·74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neonatal disorders, and the smallest decline for congenital birth defects, although the magnitude of decline varied widely between the states. Child and maternal malnutrition was the predominant risk factor, to which 68·2% (65·8–70·7) of under-5 deaths and 83·0% (80·6–85·0) of neonatal deaths in India could be attributed in 2017; 10·8% (9·1–12·4) of under-5 deaths could be attributed to unsafe water and sanitation and 8·8% (7·0–10·3) to air pollution. India has made gains in child survival, but there are substantial variations between the states in the magnitude and rate of decline in mortality, and even higher variations between the districts of India. Inequality between districts within states has increased for the majority of the states. The district-level trends presented here can provide crucial guidance for targeted efforts needed in India to reduce child mortality to meet the Indian and global child survival targets. District-level mortality trends along with state-level trends in causes of under-5 and neonatal death and the risk factors in this Article provide a comprehensive reference for further planning of child mortality reduction in India. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Objectives Mental disorders are among the leading causes of nonfatal burden of disease globally. Methods We used the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2015 to examine the burden of mental disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). We defined mental disorders according to criteria proposed in the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders IV and the 10th International Classification of Diseases. Results Mental disorders contributed to 4.7% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.7–5.6%) of total disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), ranking as the ninth leading cause of disease burden. Depressive disorders and anxiety disorders were the third and ninth leading causes of nonfatal burden, respectively. Almost all countries in the EMR had higher age-standardized mental disorder DALYs rates compared to the global level, and in half of the EMR countries, observed mental disorder rates exceeded the expected values. Conclusions The burden of mental disorders in the EMR is higher than global levels, particularly for women. To properly address this burden, EMR governments should implement nationwide quality epidemiological surveillance of mental disorders and provide adequate prevention and treatment services.

Objectives We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study results to explore the burden of high body mass index (BMI) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Methods We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children (2–19 years) and adults (≥20 years) in 1980 and 2015. The burden of disease related to high BMI was calculated using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Results The prevalence of obesity increased for adults from 15.1% (95% UI 13.4–16.9) in 1980 to 20.7% (95% UI 18.8–22.8) in 2015. It increased from 4.1% (95% UI 2.9–5.5) to 4.9% (95% UI 3.6–6.4) for the same period among children. In 2015, there were 417,115 deaths and 14,448,548 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI in EMR, which constitute about 10 and 6.3% of total deaths and DALYs, respectively, for all ages. Conclusions This is the first study to estimate trends in obesity burden for the EMR from 1980 to 2015. We call for EMR countries to invest more resources in prevention and health promotion efforts to reduce this burden.

Objectives To report the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) during 1990–2015. Methods We used the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study for estimates of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of different CVD in 22 countries of EMR. Results A total of 1.4 million CVD deaths (95% UI: 1.3–1.5) occurred in 2015 in the EMR, with the highest number of deaths in Pakistan (465,116) and the lowest number of deaths in Qatar (723). The age-standardized DALY rate per 100,000 decreased from 10,080 in 1990 to 8606 in 2015 (14.6% decrease). Afghanistan had the highest age-standardized DALY rate of CVD in both 1990 and 2015. Kuwait and Qatar had the lowest age-standardized DALY rates of CVD in 1990 and 2015, respectively. High blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high body mass index were the leading risk factors for CVD. Conclusions The age-standardized DALY rates in the EMR are considerably higher than the global average. These findings call for a comprehensive approach to prevent and control the burden of CVD in the region.

Objectives To estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 2005 and 2015. Methods Vital registration system and cancer registry data from the EMR region were analyzed for 29 cancer groups in 22 EMR countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 methodology. Results In 2015, cancer was responsible for 9.4% of all deaths and 5.1% of all DALYs. It accounted for 722,646 new cases, 379,093 deaths, and 11.7 million DALYs. Between 2005 and 2015, incident cases increased by 46%, deaths by 33%, and DALYs by 31%. The increase in cancer incidence was largely driven by population growth and population aging. Breast cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia were the most common cancers, while lung, breast, and stomach cancers caused most cancer deaths. Conclusions Cancer is responsible for a substantial disease burden in the EMR, which is increasing. There is an urgent need to expand cancer prevention, screening, and awareness programs in EMR countries as well as to improve diagnosis, treatment, and palliative care services.

Objectives We used data from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study (GBD) to calculate the burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) in the 22 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2015. Methods We conducted a systematic analysis of mortality and morbidity data for LRI and its specific etiologic factors, including pneumococcus, Haemophilus influenzae type b, Respiratory syncytial virus, and influenza virus. We used modeling methods to estimate incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated burden attributable to known risk factors for LRI. Results In 2015, LRIs were the fourth-leading cause of DALYs, causing 11,098,243 (95% UI 9,857,095–12,396,566) DALYs and 191,114 (95% UI 170,934–210,705) deaths. The LRI DALY rates were higher than global estimates in 2015. The highest and lowest age-standardized rates of DALYs were observed in Somalia and Lebanon, respectively. Undernutrition in childhood and ambient particulate matter air pollution in the elderly were the main risk factors. Conclusions Our findings call for public health strategies to reduce the level of risk factors in each age group, especially vulnerable child and elderly populations.