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Background Insufficient physical activity (IPA) is one of the leading causes of premature mortality through the increased burden of non-communicable diseases. From 1990 to 2017, the percentage of low physical activity attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALY) increased globally by 1.5 times and 2-fold in Iran, causing more than 1.2 million deaths worldwide and 18,000 deaths in Iran in 2017. Reports suggest that Iran, a developing middle-income country, suffers from a high level of IPA. Socioeconomic and cultural alterations along with the country’s developments expose the population to IPA risk. We aimed to describe IPA prevalence in Iran’s adult population, categorized by demographics, geographical region, and activity domains to assess the present pattern of physical inactivity and its domains in the country. Methods In 2016, in order to represent Iran’s adult population, adult participants (n: 30541) from 30 provinces were selected using systematic proportional to size cluster sampling. Physical activity (PA) was assessed via the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire, calculating the Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) value in minutes per week for work, recreation, and transport domains. Insufficient physical activity (IPA) was defined according to WHO’s recommendation (less than 600 METs per week). Adjusted odds ratios of IPA associates for sociodemographic, lifestyle related variables, and metabolic risk factors were reported. Results A high prevalence of IPA was seen in the total population (54.7%, 95%CI: 54.0–55.3) with a considerable difference between the two genders (males: 45.3% (95%CI: 44.3–46.3); females: 61.9% (95%CI: 61.0–62.7)). Work-related activity was the domain with the greatest percentage of total PA, whereas, both genders lacked recreational activities. In our findings, being female, a housekeeper, younger and living in urban areas were significantly associated with higher levels of IPA. Moreover, insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption, lack of alcohol consumption, having a personal vehicle, and finally, having a medical history of diabetes were significantly associated with the presence of IPA in our population. Among the study population, 33.6% (95%CI: 33.0–34.2) had at least 4 h of sedentary behavior in a typical day. Conclusions Widespread IPA among the Iranian adult population is of major concern. In our findings, we observed a considerable gap in the prevalence and pattern of IPA between the two genders. Additionally, IPA was associated with living in urban areas, unhealthy lifestyle habits and a history of other metabolic risk factors. Thus, a prompt initiative for population-specific actions should be taken.

Insufficient physical activity (IPA) caused approximately 5% of mortalities in 2017 in Iran, almost double its global average. Despite the relatively considerable burden, a knowledge gap exists regarding the trend of IPA in recent years. We described the trend of IPA prevalence utilizing the data from six rounds of STEPwise approach to risk factor Surveillance (STEPS) in Iran. We estimated the physical activity status of Iranian adults from 2006 to 2016 after adjusting for years of schooling, urbanization percentage, and wealth index. We used the spatiotemporal model to interpolate and extrapolate the IPA prevalence for the years in-between the series and from 2001 to 2006, respectively. We used the data of 177,910 participants from six STEPS surveys and found that the national prevalence of IPA had steadily increased over the course of 16 years and had almost doubled in this time period (23.1% in 2001 to 55.4% in 2016). The increase was persistent across all age and gender strata and in every province. Moreover, IPA was more prevalent among women than their male peers regardless of their age category or province of residence. The prevalence of IPA in Khuzestan (highest prevalence) was almost double compared to that in Lorestan (lowest prevalence) in 2016. The IPA prevalence increased considerably and almost doubled in 16 years among Iranian adults, particularly women. Policies need to target IPA as a high priority contributing to the burden of Non-communicable diseases.

Background Road-Traffic-Injuries (RTIs) are predicted to rise up to the fifth leading cause of worldwide death by 2030 and Iran has the third highest RTIs mortality among higher-middle income countries. Although the high mortality of RTI in Iran is a warning, it provides the opportunity to indirectly assess the implemented RTI-related regulations’ effectiveness via high-resolution relevant statistics and, hence, Iran could serve as a guide for countries with similar context. In order to do so, we utilized this study to report the time and spatial trends of RTIs-related mortality in different age and sex groups and road user classes in Iran. Methods Based on the national death-registration-system (DRS), cemeteries data, and the demographic characteristics, and after addressing incompleteness, we estimated mortality rates using spatiotemporal and Gaussian process regression models. We assessed Pearson seatbelt and helmet use and RTIs-attributable Age-Standardized-Morality-Rate (ASMR) associations. We also predicted RTIs-death-numbers, 2012–2020, by fitting a Generalized Additive Model to assess the status of achieving relevant sustainable development goal (SDG), namely reducing the number of RTIs-related deaths by half. Results Overall RTIs-attributable death and ASMR at the national level increased from 12.64 [95% UI, 9.52–16.86] to 29.1 [22.76–37.14] per 100,000 people in the time period of 1990–2015. The trend consisted of an increasing segment in 1990–2003 followed by a decreasing part till 2015. The highest percentage of death belonged to the three-or-more-wheels motorized vehicles. Pedestrian injuries percentage increased significantly and the highest mortality rate occurred in 85 years and older individuals. Low prevalence of seatbelt and helmet use were observed in provinces with higher than the median ASMR due to the relevant cause of each. RTIs-attributable death number is expected to reduce by 15.99% till 2020 which is lower than the established SDG goal. Conclusions Despite the observed substantial moderation in the RTI-ASMR, Iran is till among the leading countries in terms of the highest mortality rates in the world. The enforced regulations including speed limitations (particularly for elder pedestrians) and mandatory use of seatbelt and helmet (for young adult and male drivers) had a considerable effect on ASMR, nevertheless, the RTI burden reduction needs to be sustained and enhanced.

Background Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a burdensome, chronic and autoimmune disease of the central nervous system. We aimed to report the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of MS in Iran at a national level for different age and sex groups over a period of 28 years (1990–2017). Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) from 1990 to 2017, published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The incidence of DALYs and prevalence of MS were estimated to report the burden of MS based on sex and age in Iran from 1990 to 2017. Results At the national level, the Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR), Age-Standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), Age-Standardized DALYs Rate (ASDR) and the Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) in Iran in 2017 were 2.4 (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 2.1 to 2.7), 69.5 (62.1 to 77.8), 29.1 (23.6 to 34.7), and 0.4 (0.3 to 0.4) per 100,000 population, respectively. During the period of 1990 to 2017, all measures increased, and were higher among females. The incidence rate began upward trend at the age of 20 and attained its highest level at the age of 25. Conclusion In Iran, all of the age-standardized MS rates have been increasing during the 28 years from 1990 to 2017. Our findings can help policy makers and health planners to design and communicate their plans and to have a better resource allocation, depending on the incidence and prevalence of the growing numbers of MS patients in Iran.

Objectives Acantholysis is the main pathologic finding in pemphigus, and its location has been historically used to distinguish the major subtypes of pemphigus vulgaris (PV) and pemphigus foliaceus (PF). While suprabasal clefts are present in PV, PF includes intragranular or subcorneal clefts. After the introduction of anti‐desmoglein ELISA, PF is characterized by anti‐Dsg 1 and PV by anti‐Dsg 3 autoantibodies. However, pathological and serological findings are not consistent in all patients. In this study, we tried to investigate the agreement between serological and pathological findings for the diagnosis of pemphigus. Methods We restudied the acantholysis location in skin biopsy samples of 168 pemphigus patients and compared the subtypes of pemphigus based on anti‐Dsg1/3 ELISA and acantholysis locations. Results In 33 (19.6%), 100 (59.5%), and 35 (20.8%) of patients, acantholysis was observed in the upper half, the lower half, and throughout the epidermis, respectively. The mean anti‐Dsg1 and anti‐Dsg3 values were 169.76 and 43.45 U/mL in upper clefts and 120.53 and 157.88 U/mL in lower clefts, respectively. By assuming anti‐Dsg1/3 as the gold standard of diagnosis of pemphigus, the sensitivity and specificity of cleft location‐based diagnosis were calculated as 90.2% and 80% for PV and 80% and 90.2% for PF, respectively. There was an overall agreement of 87.97% between histological and serological diagnosis. Conclusions The histological findings in PV and PF are not necessarily correlated with sera antibodies' profile. Clinical manifestations, histopathological findings, direct immunofluorescence, and serologic study are all required to accurate diagnosis of the pemphigus and differentiate its subtypes. Acantholysis is the main pathologic finding in pemphigus, and its location has been historically used to distinguish the major subtypes of pemphigus vulgaris (PV) and pemphigus foliaceus (PF). After the introduction of anti‐desmoglein ELISA, PF is characterized by anti‐Dsg 1 and PV by anti‐Dsg 3 autoantibodies. We investigated that the histological findings in PV and PF are not necessarily correlated with sera antibodies' profile.

Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89–4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61–2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18–5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10–4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8–8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4–8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1–10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184–5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461–524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74–89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38–43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3–0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0–16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6–11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8–23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68–2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6–0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9–136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7–138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (−39·3 to −33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (−37·2 to −31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (−10·7 to −5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men. Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated. Since the development and implementation of the SDGs in 2015, global health spending has increased, reaching $7·9 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 7·8–8·0) in 2017 and is expected to increase to $11·0 trillion (10·7–11·2) by 2030. In 2017, in low-income and middle-income countries spending on HIV/AIDS was $20·2 billion (17·0–25·0) and on tuberculosis it was $10·9 billion (10·3–11·8), and in malaria-endemic countries spending on malaria was $5·1 billion (4·9–5·4). Development assistance for health was $40·6 billion in 2019 and HIV/AIDS has been the health focus area to receive the highest contribution since 2004. In 2019, $374 million of DAH was provided for pandemic preparedness, less than 1% of DAH. Although spending has increased across HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria since 2015, spending has not increased in all countries, and outcomes in terms of prevalence, incidence, and per-capita spending have been mixed. The proportion of health spending from pooled sources is expected to increase from 81·6% (81·6–81·7) in 2015 to 83·1% (82·8–83·3) in 2030. Health spending on SDG3 priority areas has increased, but not in all countries, and progress towards meeting the SDG3 targets has been mixed and has varied by country and by target. The evidence on the scale-up of spending and improvements in health outcomes suggest a nuanced relationship, such that increases in spending do not always results in improvements in outcomes. Although countries will probably need more resources to achieve SDG3, other constraints in the broader health system such as inefficient allocation of resources across interventions and populations, weak governance systems, human resource shortages, and drug shortages, will also need to be addressed. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundDrowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.MethodsUnintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning.ResultsGlobally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes.ConclusionsThere has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.