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Background: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. Methods: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. Results: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4°C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3°C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1°C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. Conclusions: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

Background: During August 2003, record high temperatures were observed across Europe, and France was the country most affected. During this period, elevated ozone concentrations were measured all over the country. Questions were raised concerning the contribution of O3to the health impact of the summer 2003 heat wave. Methods: We used a time-series design to analyze short-term effects of temperature and O3pollution on mortality. Counts of deaths were regressed on temperatures and O3levels, controlling for possible confounders: long-term trends, season, influenza outbreaks, day of the week, and bank holiday effects. For comparison with previous results of the nine cities, we calculated pooled excess risk using a random effect approach and an empirical Bayes approach. Findings: For the nine cities, the excess risk of death is significant (1.01%; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.44) for an increase of$10 \\mu g/m^3$in O3level. For the 3-17 August 2003 period, the excess risk of deaths linked to O3and temperatures together ranged from 10.6% in Le Havre to 174.7% in Paris. When we compared the relative contributions of O3and temperature to this joint excess risk, the contribution of O3varied according to the city, ranging from 2.5% in Bordeaux to 85.3% in Toulouse. Interpretation: We observed heterogeneity among the nine cities not only for the joint effect of O3and temperatures, but also for the relative contribution of each factor. These results confirmed that in urban areas O3levels have a non-negligible impact in terms of public health.

We present an analysis of short-term associations between ambient NO2 and mortality according to cause, age-group, and period (cold and warm) in 18 areas in metropolitan France for the 2010–2014 period. Associations were estimated in each area using a generalized additive Poisson regression model, and effects were summarized in a meta-analysis. The percentage increase in mortality rate was estimated for a 10 µg m−3 increase in the NO2 level in each area for each complete calendar year and for cold (November to April) and warm periods (May to October) in each year. We found that the NO2 increase (lag of 0–1 days) was associated with a 0.75% increase of non-accidental mortality for all age-groups (95% confidence interval (CI): (0.4; 1.10)). During the warm period, this NO2 increase was associated with a 3.07% increase in non-accidental mortality in the ≥75 years old group (95% CI: 1.97; 4.18). This study supports the short-term effects of NO2 as a proxy of urban traffic pollution on mortality, even for concentrations below the maximum guideline of 40 µg m−3 set down by the European Air Quality Standards and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Apheis aims to provide European decision makers, environmental-health professionals and the general public with up-to-date and easy-to-use information on air pollution (AP) and public health (PH). In the Apheis-3 phase we quantified the PH impact of long-term exposure to PM(2.5) (particulate matter < 2.5 microm) in terms of attributable number of deaths and the potential gain in life expectancy in 23 European cities. We followed the World Health Organization (WHO) methodology for Health Impact Assessment (HIA) and the Apheis guidelines for data collection and analysis. We used the programme created by PSAS-9 for attributable-cases calculations and the WHO software AirQ to estimate the potential gain in life expectancy. For most cities, PM(2.5) levels were calculated from PM10 measurements using a local or European conversion factor. The HIA estimated that 16,926 premature deaths from all causes, including 11,612 cardiopulmonary deaths and 1901 lung-cancer deaths, could be prevented annually if long-term exposure to PM(2.5 )levels were reduced to 15 microg/m3 in each city. Equivalently, this reduction would increase life expectancy at age 30 by a range between one month and more than two years in the Apheis cities. In addition to the number of attributable cases, our HIA has estimated the potential gain in life expectancy for long-term exposure to fine particles, contributing to a better quantification of the impact of AP on PH in Europe.

Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.

This article illustrates how a health impact assessment (HIA) can be used to promote a collaborative discussion among stakeholders as part of a local action plan aimed at improving air quality. We performed a HIA of the mortality impacts of long-term exposure to fine particles PM2.5 in the Arve Valley in France. This narrow valley can experience high levels of pollution mostly during winter. However, local stakeholders expressed strong, contradictory opinions on the associated health impacts. Our HIA helped overcome existing silos and shifted the overriding question from “Is it true that air pollution kills people?” to “What can we do to improve air quality?” HIAs have proven to be an excellent decision-support tool in many contexts. In addition, they should continue to be useful provided that their scope, specific objectives, choices, calculation assumptions, and limitations are thoroughly explained to all stakeholders and made easily accessible.

Public decision-makers commonly use health impact assessments (HIA) to quantify the impacts of various regulation policies. However, standard HIAs do not consider that chronic diseases (CDs) can be both caused and exacerbated by a common factor, and generally focus on exacerbations. As an illustration, exposure to near road traffic-related pollution (NRTP) may affect the onset of CDs, and general ambient or urban background air pollution (BP) may exacerbate these CDs. We propose a comprehensive HIA that explicitly accounts for both the acute effects and the long-term effects, making it possible to compute the overall burden of disease attributable to air pollution. A case study applies the two HIA methods to two CDs—asthma in children and coronary heart disease (CHD) in adults over 65—for ten European cities, totaling 1.89 million 0-17-year-old children and 1.85 million adults aged 65 and over. We compare the current health effects with those that might, hypothetically, be obtained if exposure to NRTP was equally low for those living close to busy roads as it is for those living farther away, and if annual mean concentrations of both PM₁₀ and NO₂—taken as markers of general urban air pollution—were no higher than 20 µg/m³. Returning an assessment of € 0.55 million (95 % CI 0-0.95), the HIA based on acute effects alone accounts for only about 6.2 % of the annual hospitalization burden computed with the comprehensive method [€ 8.81 million (95 % CI 3-14.4)], and for about 0.15 % of the overall economic burden of air pollution-related CDs [€ 370 million (95 % CI 106-592)]. Morbidity effects thus impact the health system more directly and strongly than previously believed. These findings may clarify the full extent of benefits from any public health or environmental policy involving CDs due to and exacerbated by a common factor.

Purpose of Review Loss of biodiversity and globalized environmental degradation result in planetary-scale changes which impact human societies. Recent Findings This paper highlights the urgency for public health researchers to integrate a global change perspective into their daily work. The public health community needs to answer several questions, e.g., how to weight the health of present and future generations; how to balance between the possible immediate adverse impacts of mitigating climate change vs long-term adverse impacts of global change; how to limit the environmental impacts of public health intervention; and how to allocate resources. Public health practitioners are faced with a moral responsibility to address these challenges. Summary Key elements to ensure long-lasting, innovative global change and health solutions include (i) empowering the population; (ii) tailoring the framing of global change and health impacts for different stakeholders; (iii) adopting less conservative approaches on reporting future scenarios; (iv) increasing accountability about the health impacts of mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (v) recognizing the limits of science.