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The Arctic warms faster than anywhere else on Earth, and paleoclimate data are key to placing this amplified response in a long‐term context. But most past temperature proxies record growing season conditions, when their biological signal carriers are produced. This bias is important, as model simulations suggest that future Arctic warming will be strongest in winter. We help close this gap by presenting a 6.7 ka long record of Arctic cold season climate change. For this purpose, we characterize siderite mineral concretions in Svalbard Lake sediments that form under anoxic conditions, prompted by lingering lake ice coverage after severe winters. To do so with high micrometer‐scale precision, we integrate multiple core scanning characteristics. This novel approach finds non‐linear transitions in response to a complex interplay between abrupt (volcanic) and gradual (cyclic) paleoclimate forcings.

Sediment cores from Kløverbladvatna, a threshold lake in Wahlenbergfjorden, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard were used to reconstruct Holocene glacier fluctuations. Meltwater from Etonbreen spills over a threshold to the lake, only when the glacier is significantly larger than at present. Lithological logging, loss-on-ignition, ITRAX scanning and radiocarbon dating of the cores show that Kløverbladvatna became isolated from Wahlenbergfjorden c. 5.4 cal. kyr BP due to glacioisostatic rebound. During the Late Holocene, laminated clayey gyttja from lacustrine organic production and surface runoff from the catchment accumulated in the lake. The lacustrine sedimentary record suggests that meltwater only spilled over the threshold at the peak of the surge of Etonbreen in AD 1938. Hence, we suggest that this was the largest extent of Etonbreen in the (mid-late) Holocene. In Palanderbukta, a tributary fjord to Wahlenbergfjorden, raised beaches were surveyed and organic material collected to determine the age of the beaches and reconstruct postglacial relative sea level change. The age of the postglacial raised beaches ranges from 10.7 cal. kyr BP at 50 m a.s.l. to 3.13 cal. kyr BP at 2 m a.s.l. The reconstructed postglacial relative sea level curve adds valuable spatial and chronological data to the relative sea level record of Nordaustlandet.

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago 1 had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming 2 . Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11–19 °C above contemporary values 3 , 4 . The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare 5 . Here we report an ancient environmental DNA 6 (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA. Analysis of two-million-year-old ancient environmental DNA from the Kap København Formation in North Greenland shows there was an open boreal forest with diverse plant and animal species, of which several taxa have not previously been detected at the site, representing an ecosystem that has no present-day analogue.

Droughts are a recurrent and natural part of the Australian hydroclimate, with evidence of drought dating back thousands of years. However, our ability to monitor, attribute, forecast and manage drought is exposed as insufficient whenever a drought occurs. This paper summarises what is known about drought hazard, as opposed to the impacts of drought, in Australia and finds that, unlike other hydroclimatic hazards, we currently have very limited ability to tell when a drought will begin or end. Understanding, defining, monitoring, forecasting and managing drought is also complex due to the variety of temporal and spatial scales at which drought occurs and the diverse direct and indirect causes and consequences of drought. We argue that to improve understanding and management of drought, three key research challenges should be targeted: (1) defining and monitoring drought characteristics (i.e. frequency, start, duration, magnitude, and spatial extent) to remove confusion between drought causes, impacts and risks and better distinguish between drought, aridity, and water scarcity due to over-extractions; (2) documenting historical (instrumental and pre-instrumental) variation in drought to better understand baseline drought characteristics, enable more rigorous identification and attribution of drought events or trends, inform/evaluate hydrological and climate modelling activities and give insights into possible future drought scenarios; (3) improving the prediction and projection of drought characteristics with seasonal to multidecadal lead times and including more realistic modelling of the multiple factors that cause (or contribute to) drought so that the impacts of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change are accounted for and the reliability of long-term drought projections increases.

During the last glacial–interglacial cycle, Arctic biotas experienced substantial climatic changes, yet the nature, extent and rate of their responses are not fully understood1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Here we report a large-scale environmental DNA metagenomic study of ancient plant and mammal communities, analysing 535 permafrost and lake sediment samples from across the Arctic spanning the past 50,000 years. Furthermore, we present 1,541 contemporary plant genome assemblies that were generated as reference sequences. Our study provides several insights into the long-term dynamics of the Arctic biota at the circumpolar and regional scales. Our key findings include: (1) a relatively homogeneous steppe–tundra flora dominated the Arctic during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by regional divergence of vegetation during the Holocene epoch; (2) certain grazing animals consistently co-occurred in space and time; (3) humans appear to have been a minor factor in driving animal distributions; (4) higher effective precipitation, as well as an increase in the proportion of wetland plants, show negative effects on animal diversity; (5) the persistence of the steppe–tundra vegetation in northern Siberia enabled the late survival of several now-extinct megafauna species, including the woolly mammoth until 3.9 ± 0.2 thousand years ago (ka) and the woolly rhinoceros until 9.8 ± 0.2 ka; and (6) phylogenetic analysis of mammoth environmental DNA reveals a previously unsampled mitochondrial lineage. Our findings highlight the power of ancient environmental metagenomics analyses to advance understanding of population histories and long-term ecological dynamics.

Floods are caused by a number of interacting factors, making it remarkably difficult to explain changes in flood hazard. This paper reviews the current understanding of historical trends and variability in flood hazard across Australia. Links between flood and rainfall trends cannot be made due to the influence of climate processes over a number of spatial and temporal scales as well as landscape changes that affect the catchment response. There are also still considerable uncertainties in future rainfall projections, particularly for sub-daily extreme rainfall events. This is in addition to the inherent uncertainty in hydrological modelling such as antecedent conditions and feedback mechanisms. Research questions are posed based on the current state of knowledge. These include a need for high-resolution climate modelling studies and efforts in compiling and analysing databases of sub-daily rainfall and flood records. Finally there is a need to develop modelling frameworks that can deal with the interaction between climate processes at different spatio-temporal scales, so that historical flood trends can be better explained and future flood behaviour understood.

The use of lake sedimentary DNA to track the long-term changes in both terrestrial and aquatic biota is a rapidly advancing field in paleoecological research. Although largely applied nowadays, knowledge gaps remain in this field and there is therefore still research to be conducted to ensure the reliability of the sedimentary DNA signal. Building on the most recent literature and seven original case studies, we synthesize the state-of-the-art analytical procedures for effective sampling, extraction, amplification, quantification and/or generation of DNA inventories from sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) via high-throughput sequencing technologies. We provide recommendations based on current knowledge and best practises.

Long-term hydrologic records provide crucial reference baselines of natural variability that can be used to evaluate potential changes in hydrologic regimes and their impacts. However, there is a dearth of studies of the hydrologic regimes for tropical drylands where intraseasonal and interannual variability in magnitude and frequency of precipitation are extreme. Here, we sought to identify the main hydroclimatic determinants of the strongly episodic flood regime of a large catchment in the semi-arid, subtropical northwest of Australia and to establish the background of hydrologic variability for the region over the last century. We used a monthly sequence of satellite images to quantify surface water expression on the Fortescue Marsh, the largest water feature of inland northwest Australia, from 1988 to 2012. We used this sequence together with instrumental rainfall data to build a statistical model with multiple linear regression and reconstruct monthly history of floods and droughts since 1912. We found that severe and intense regional rainfall events, as well as the sequence of recharge events both within and between years, determine surface water expression on the floodplain (i.e. total rainfall, number of rain days and carried-over inundated area; R2adj = 0.79; p value < 0.001, ERMSP = 56 km2). The most severe reconstructed inundation over the last century was in March 2000 (1000 km2), which is less than the 1300 km2 area required to overflow to the adjacent catchment. The Fortescue Marsh was completely dry for 32% of all years, for periods of up to four consecutive years. Extremely wet years (seven of the 100 years) caused the Marsh to remain inundated for up to 12 months; only 25% of years (9% of all months) had floods of greater than 300 km2. The prolonged, severe and consecutive yearly inundations between 1999 and 2006 were unprecedented compared to the last century. While there is high inter-annual variability in the system, if the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events for the region were to increase (or be similar to 1999–2006), surface water on the Marsh will become more persistent, in turn impacting its structure and functioning as a wetland.