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A risk assessment framework shows that policymakers’ preferences affect carbon budget choices more than future uncertainties. Such preferences are as important as the much-discussed discount rate. Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks 1 . Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs  2 , 3 , 4 ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (CDR)-also known as 'negative emissions'-features prominently in most 2 °C scenarios and has been under increased scrutiny by scientists, citizens, and policymakers. Critics argue that 'negative emission technologies' (NETs) are insufficiently mature to rely on them for climate stabilization. Some even argue that 2 °C is no longer feasible or might have unacceptable social and environmental costs. Nonetheless, the Paris Agreement endorsed an aspirational goal of limiting global warming to even lower levels, arguing that climate impacts-especially for vulnerable nations such as small island states-will be unacceptably severe in a 2 °C world. While there are few pathways to 2 °C that do not rely on negative emissions, 1.5 °C scenarios are barely conceivable without them. Building on previous assessments of NETs, we identify some urgent research needs to provide a more complete picture for reaching ambitious climate targets, and the role that NETs can play in reaching them.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity 1 . Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits 2 , 3 . However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being 4 . Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is −1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses. Country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits show unequal impacts on the global values of natural capital resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover.

Socioeconomic scenarios of climate change contain a number of assumptions, which lead to uncertainty in projections. Emission estimates in the scenarios are found to be most sensitive for assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth. Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation 1 . Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO 2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm 2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO 2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Climate stabilization requires the mobilization of substantial investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies, especially in emerging and developing economies. However, access to stable and affordable finance varies dramatically across countries. Models used to evaluate the energy transition do not differentiate regional financing costs and therefore cannot study risk-sharing mechanisms for renewable electricity generation. In this study, we incorporated the empirically estimated cost of capital differentiated by country and technology into an ensemble of five climate–energy–economy models. We quantified the additional financing cost of decarbonization borne by developing regions and explored policies of risk premium convergence across countries. We found that alleviating financial constraints benefits both climate and equity as a result of more renewable and affordable energy in the developing world. This highlights the importance of fair finance for energy availability, affordability and sustainability, as well as the need to include financial considerations in model-based assessments. Fair finance in the energy sector is modelled in five climate–energy–economy models. The results show that convergence costs of capital could improve energy availability, affordability and sustainability in developing countries, thereby increasing the international equity of the energy transition.

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is associated with decreased incidence of cardiovascular events, and its functionality also influences prognosis. Exercise is an important tool to improve prognosis in the post-infarction (MI) population, but the role of exercise on HDL functionality is poorly understood. Sixty-two patients with acute MI were randomized in a supervised exercise program for 12–14 weeks (exercise group—EG) or a control group (CG). The main objective of the study was to analyze the role of exercise on esterified cholesterol (EC) and unesterified cholesterol (UC) transfer to HDL. For the total population, the baseline mean rate of EC transfer to HDL was 2.53 ± 0.83 and at the end of follow-up, it was 2.74 ± 0.64 (p = 0.03). The figures for UC were, respectively, 4.08 ± 1.2 and 4.4 ± 1.06 (p = 0.02). The difference (follow-up minus baseline) for EC was 0.15 ± 0.84 for the control group and 0.27 ± 0.69 for the exercise group (p = 0.53); for UC, the figures were 0.28 ± 1.14 and 0.35 ± 0.96 (p = 0.80), respectively, for the control and exercise groups. In post-MI patients, 12–14 weeks of supervised exercise did not improve HDL functionality.

Operationalizing a Global Carbon Observing and Analysis System (www.geocarbon.net) would provide a sound basis for monitoring actual carbon fluxes and thus getting quantities right when pricing carbon - be it in a cap-and-trade scheme or under a tax regime. However, such monitoring systems are expensive and-especially in times of economic weakness-budgets for science and environmental policy are under particular scrutiny. In this study, we attempt to demonstrate the magnitude of benefits of improved information about actual carbon fluxes. Such information enables better-informed policy-making and thus paves the way for a more secure investment environment when decarbonizing the energy sector. The numerical results provide a robust indication of a positive social value of improving carbon monitoring systems when compared to their cost, especially for the more ambitious climate policies.

The effects of regular physical activity on two important anti-atherosclerosis functions of high-density lipoprotein (HDL), namely its capacity to receive both forms of cholesterol and its anti-oxidant function, were investigated in this study comparing older adults with young individuals. One-hundred and eight healthy adult individuals were enrolled and separated into the following groups: active older (60–80 yrs, n = 24); inactive older (60–79 yrs, n = 21); active young (20–34 yrs, n = 39); and inactive young (20–35 yrs, n = 24). All performed cardiopulmonary tests. Blood samples were collected in order to assess the following measures: lipid profile, HDL anti-oxidant capacity, paraoxonase-1 activity, HDL subfractions, and lipid transfer to HDL. Comparing active older and active young groups with inactive older and inactive young groups, respectively, the active groups presented higher HDL-C levels (p < 0.01 for both comparisons), unesterified cholesterol transfer (p < 0.01, p < 0.05), and intermediate and larger HDL subfractions (p < 0.001, p < 0.01) than the respective inactive groups. In addition, the active young group showed higher esterified cholesterol transfer than the inactive young group (p < 0.05). As expected, the two active groups had higher VO2peak than the inactive groups; VO2peak was higher in the two younger than in the two older groups (p < 0.05). No differences in unesterified and esterified cholesterol transfers and HDL subfractions were found between active young and active older groups. HDL anti-oxidant capacity and paraoxonase-1 activity were equal in all four study groups. Our data highlight and strengthen the benefits of regular practice of physical activity on an important HDL function, the capacity of HDL to receive cholesterol, despite the age-dependent decrease in VO2peak.