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With louder demands in public discourse for action on adaptation to climate change, efforts to improve the provision and use of climate information and services (CIS) are also gaining prominence. Drawing on literature about uptake of CIS for climate risk assessment and adaptation, plus our own practical experiences, this Essay examines modes of user-provider interaction in CIS. By employing a customer-tailor analogy, three overlapping types of CIS transaction are identified: ‘off-the-peg’, ‘outsourced’ and ‘bespoke’. Evident across all modes are ‘loyalty card’ customers who return to the same provider(s). We then offer a set of prompts to facilitate more meaningful engagement and dialogue between adaptation actors and providers. These questions could also be used to seed discussions within communities that research and provide training in CIS, as well as amongst stakeholders, funders and other institutions involved in the governance of CIS systems. Such searching and timely conversations could advance a more tailored approach to CIS delivery, regardless of the technical and financial starting point of users and providers.

In this paper, we assess the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information intended to support climate adaptation decision-making. We use the UK Climate Projections 2018 as an example of such information. Their probabilistic, global, and regional land projections exemplify some of the key methodologies that are at the forefront of constructing regional climate information for decision support in adapting to a changing climate. We assess the quality of the evidence and the methodology used to support their statements about future regional climate along six quality dimensions: transparency; theory; independence, number, and comprehensiveness of evidence; and historical empirical adequacy. The assessment produced two major insights. First, a major issue that taints the quality of UKCP18 is the lack of transparency, which is particularly problematic since the information is directed towards non-expert users who would need to develop technical skills to evaluate the quality and epistemic reliability of this information. Second, the probabilistic projections are of lower quality than the global projections because the former lack both transparency and a theory underpinning the method used to produce quantified uncertainty estimates about future climate. The assessment also shows how different dimensions are satisfied depending on the evidence used, the methodology chosen to analyze the evidence, and the type of statements that are constructed in the different strands of UKCP18. This research highlights the importance of knowledge quality assessment of regional climate information that intends to support climate change adaptation decisions.

Climate information is important for agricultural decision-makings. On the supply-side, provision of climate information is crucial as it enhances information availability. However, decisions from the demand-side are equally important. If farmers do not make use of available climate information, its benefits may be limited. In the extant literature, level of use of climate information has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we examine the impact of not only access but also level of use of climate information on adoption intensity of sustainable practices. Based on a large sample data, we used double-hurdle model to account for not only the hurdle farmers need to grapple with to access climate information but also decisions on the actual use (level) of information to probe into the determinants of adoption. Using dose–response function moreover, we consider both access and intensity of use of climate information to estimate the impact on adoption intensity of adaptation and CSA practices. We found the presence of significant differences in the determinants of adoption intensity when accounting for not only access but also actual use of climate information. Specifically, labor endowments such as education and physical labor and sources of information and learning (extension and community groups) were positively correlated with higher adoption. Dose–response function results indicate that intensity of use of climate information increased adoption of CSA practices. Results imply that while interventions to improve access are useful, those that enhance farmers’ level of use of climate information are vital for increasing adoption of sustainable practices.

Southern Africa is a region facing multiple stressors, including chronic, recurrent food insecurity and persistent threats of famine. Climate information, including seasonal climate forecasts, has been heralded as a promising tool for early-warning systems and agricultural risk management in southern Africa. Nevertheless, there is concern that climate information, for example climate forecasts, are not realizing their potential value in the region. The present study considers the actual and potential roles played by climate information in reducing food insecurity in southern Africa from 2 perspectives. The first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. Users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. The second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information. The first relates to improved understanding of the contextual environment in which end users operate and use information. Users, including farmers, usually operate in an environment of considerable uncertainty, reacting to and coping with multiple stressors whose impacts are not always clear or predictable. The second perspective relates to improving the current design and variety of mechanisms (e.g. climate outlook forums) for the dissemination and uptake of climate information. Climate information, it is argued, used in isolation (e.g. in 'stand alone' climate outlook forums) and undertaken in a traditional, linear fashion, where information is moved from producer to user, is divorced from the broader, complex social context in which such information is embedded. This current articulation of climate information flow represents an ineffective means of dealing with climate variability and food security. Alternative modes of interaction (e.g. using existing platforms to 'piggyback' information or seeking appropriate 'boundary organisations') should be found to sustainably manage climate risks in the region.

Climate change is a significant threat to agriculture-related livelihoods, and its impacts amplify prevailing gender inequalities. Climate information services (CIS) are crucial enablers in adapting to climate change and managing climate-related risks by smallholder farmers. Even though various gender groups have distinct preferences, understandings, and uses of CIS, which affect adaptation decisions differently, there is little research on gender perspectives of CIS. This study employs a novel intra-household survey of 156 married couples to evaluate the gender-differentiated effects of CIS access on the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies in Kenya. The findings reveal gender differences in access to CIS, with husbands having significantly more access to early warning systems and advisory services on adaptation. In contrast, wives had better access to weather forecasts. About 38% of wives perceived that CIS meets their needs, compared to 30% of husbands. As for CIS dissemination pathways, husbands preferred extension officers, print media, television, and local leaders, whereas wives preferred radio and social groups. Recursive bivariate probit analysis shows that trust in CIS, a bundle of CIS dissemination pathways, access to credit, and membership in a mixed-gender social group, affected access to CIS for both genders. Access to early warning systems and advisory services positively affected decisions to adopt CSA by both genders. Still, access to seasonal forecasts influenced husbands’ decisions to adopt CSA but not wives. Besides, there were gender differences in how CIS affected each CSA technology based on gendered access to resources and roles and responsibilities in a household. It is necessary to disseminate CIS through gender-sensitive channels that can satisfy the needs and preferences of different gender groups to encourage the adoption of climate-smart technologies.

The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities. Plain Language Summary Climatic impact‐drivers (CIDs) are climate conditions that affect the things we care about in nature and society. We deepen the motivation and definitions that allowed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to identify 33 distinct CID categories including extreme heat, hydrological drought, severe wind storm, permafrost, relative sea level, marine heatwaves, and air pollution weather. Each CID category may be analyzed with specific indices that inform adaptation, mitigation and risk management. The CID Framework allows us to avoid universally labeling a climate condition as a “hazard,” recognizing that the same physical condition may be detrimental for some and beneficial or inconsequential for others. This approach allows climate scientists to engage with impacts and risk experts to target specific tolerance thresholds that are system‐ and sector‐dependent. This more comprehensive description of the CID Framework provides a practical foundation for climate research, climate and impact model development, risk assessments and climate service product creation. Key Points Deepens explanation of Climatic Impact‐Driver (CID) Framework utilized in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Reports Distinguishes practical CID types and categories that allows climate information to target conditions that affect the things we care about Neutral Framework does not pre‐judge beneficial, detrimental or neutral outcomes which are system‐ and sector‐dependent

We summarise the contributions to the Topical Collection on quality of climate information for adaptation decision support. Based on these contributions, we draw some further lessons for the development of high-quality climate information and services, bridging between a “credibility-first” paradigm (exemplified by top-down information provision from systematic downscaling or impact projections) and a “salience-first” paradigm (exemplified by user-led tailored information products or storylines) by looking to identify their respective strengths and use cases. We emphasise that a more nuanced collective understanding of the dimensions of information quality in climate information and services would be beneficial to users and providers and ultimately support more confident and effective climate adaptation decisions and policy-making.

The treatment of uncertainty in climate-change science is dominated by the far-reaching influence of the ‘frequentist’ tradition in statistics, which interprets uncertainty in terms of sampling statistics and emphasizes p -values and statistical significance. This is the normative standard in the journals where most climate-change science is published. Yet a sampling distribution is not always meaningful (there is only one planet Earth). Moreover, scientific statements about climate change are hypotheses, and the frequentist tradition has no way of expressing the uncertainty of a hypothesis. As a result, in climate-change science, there is generally a disconnect between physical reasoning and statistical practice. This paper explores how the frequentist statistical methods used in climate-change science can be embedded within the more general framework of probability theory, which is based on very simple logical principles. In this way, the physical reasoning represented in scientific hypotheses, which underpins climate-change science, can be brought into statistical practice in a transparent and logically rigorous way. The principles are illustrated through three examples of controversial scientific topics: the alleged global warming hiatus, Arctic-midlatitude linkages, and extreme event attribution. These examples show how the principles can be applied, in order to develop better scientific practice. “La théorie des probabilités n’est que le bon sens reduit au calcul.” (Pierre-Simon Laplace, Essai Philosophiques sur les Probabilités , 1819). “It is sometimes considered a paradox that the answer depends not only on the observations but on the question; it should be a platitude.” (Harold Jeffreys, Theory of Probability , 1st edition, 1939).

The expectation of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by mid-century has sparked economic and geopolitical interest in potential Arctic opportunities and risks. But substantial sea ice variability across timescales suggests an uncertain future for forecasts of marine accessibility, especially over operational (< 2 years) and infrastructural (> 5 years) time spans that significantly influence decision-makers planning ship routing, emergency management, port investment, and more. Here, we use three marine accessibility schemes applied to CMIP6 scenarios to quantify Arctic shipping season variability and uncertainty across these decision-relevant timescales. We compare route projections across climate models and accessibility schemes to show that the choice of methodology significantly affects information important for decision-making. We find high variability and uncertainty in voyage time notably in the critical “shoulder” seasons on both timescales. This leads to increased risk over the next several decades, with high short-term uncertainty particularly at the end of the shipping season for the next 25 years. Navigation risk is expected to decline from 2045 onward. Knowledge that accounts for sea ice variability, simulation quality, and accessibility algorithm allows for better investment decisions and the minimization of unforeseen costs due to delayed and canceled voyages. Here we develop and demonstrate a framework for developing more timely and salient information to guide decisions on Arctic shipping relevant to both operational and infrastructural horizons as climate projections become spatially and physically better resolved.