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Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas
Variability of Sea-Surface Height (SSH) from ocean dynamic processes is an important component of sea-level change. In this study we dynamically downscale a present-day control simulation of a climate model to replicate sea-level variability in the Northwest European shelf seas. The simulation can reproduce many characteristics of sea-level variability exhibited in tide gauge and satellite altimeter observations. We examine the roles of lateral ocean boundary conditions and surface atmospheric forcings in determining the sea-level variability in the model interior using sensitivity experiments. Variability in the oceanic boundary conditions leads to uniform sea-level variations across the shelf. Atmospheric variability leads to spatial SSH variability with a greater mean amplitude. We separate the SSH variability into a uniform loading term (change in shelf volume with no change in distribution), and a spatial redistribution term (with no volume change). The shelf loading variance accounted for 80% of the shelf mean total variance, but this drops to ~ 60% around Scotland and in the southeast North Sea. We analyse our modelled variability to provide a useful context to coastal planners and managers. Our 200-year simulation allows the distribution of the unforced trends (over 4–21 year) of sea-level changes to be quantified. We found that the 95th percentile change over a 4-year period can lead to coastal sea-level changes of ~ 58 mm, which must be considered when using smooth sea level projections. We also found that simulated coastal SSH variations have long correlation length-scales, suggesting that observations of interannual sea-level variability from tide gauges are typically representative of > 200 km of the adjacent coast. This helps guide the use of tide gauge variability estimates.
Journal Article
Flight mechanics modeling and analysis
\"Flight Mechanics Modelling and Analysis comprehensively covers flight mechanics and flight dynamics using a systems approach. The book focuses on applied mathematics and control theory in its discussion of flight mechanics to build a strong foundation for solving design and control problems in the areas of flight simulation and flight data analysis. The second edition has been expanded to include two new chapters and coverage of aeroservoelastic topics and engineering mechanics, presenting more concepts of flight control and aircraft parameter estimation. The book is intended for senior undergraduate aerospace students taking Aircraft Mechanics, Flight Dynamics & Controls, and Flight Mechanics courses. It will also be of interest to research students and R&D project-scientists of the same disciplines. Including end-of-chapter exercises and illustrative examples with a MATLAB® based approach, the book also includes a Solutions Manual and Figure Slides for adopting instructors. Features : covers flight mechanics, flight simulation, flight testing, flight control, and aeroservoelasticity. Features artificial neural network- and fuzzy logic-based aspects in modelling and analysis of flight mechanics systems : aircraft parameter estimation, and reconfiguration of control. Focuses on a systems-based approach. Includes two new chapters, numerical simulation examples with MATLAB® based implementations, and end-of-chapter exercises. Includes a Solutions Manual and Figure Slides for adopting instructors\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
A Motion Control Simulation Based on Predictive Model
How to improve target tracking efficiency, how to track targets with different motion forms, and establish target motion models are the main research directions. This paper expounds a motion control algorithm based on the prediction model. By establishing the motion equation and prediction model of the target, setting the estimated parameters, optimizing the initial value setting, and predicting the motion state of the target, the simulation analysis based on MATLAB is completed. The simulation results show that the motion control algorithm based on the prediction model has good robustness and real-time performance, realizes the feedback control closed-loop of “prediction-error-correction-prediction”, and can effectively reduce the real-time calculation amount of target tracking. Good target tracking accuracy.
Journal Article
Aircraft control and simulation : dynamics, controls design, and autonomous systems
This third edition is a comprehensive guide to aircraft control and simulation. The updated text covers flight control systems, flight dynamics, aircraft modelling, and flight simulation from both classical design and modern perspectives, as well as two new chapters on the modelling, simulation, and adaptive control of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Book
The MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis, 1980 Onward. Part I
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), updates NASA’s previous satellite-era (1980 onward) reanalysis system to include additional observations and improvements to the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), Earth system model. As a major step toward a full Integrated Earth Systems Analysis (IESA), in addition to meteorological observations, MERRA-2 now includes assimilation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from various ground-and space-based remote sensing platforms. Here, in the first of a pair of studies, the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation is documented, including a description of the prognostic model (GEOS-5 coupled to the GOCART aerosol module), aerosol emissions, and the quality control of ingested observations. Initial validation and evaluation of the analyzed AOD fields are provided using independent observations from ground, aircraft, and shipborne instruments. The positive impact of the AOD assimilation on simulated aerosols is demonstrated by comparing MERRA-2 aerosol fields to an identical control simulation that does not include AOD assimilation. After showing the AOD evaluation, this paper takes a first look at aerosol–climate interactions by examining the shortwave, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect. The companion paper (Part II) evaluates and validates available MERRA-2 aerosol properties not directly impacted by the AOD assimilation (e.g., aerosol vertical distribution and absorption). Importantly, while highlighting the skill of the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation products, both studies point out caveats that must be considered when using this new reanalysis product for future studies of aerosols and their interactions with weather and climate.
Journal Article
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3)
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and their coupling, as well as various aspects of model development, including tuning, optimization, and a reproducibility strategy. We also document the stability of the model using a long control simulation, quantify the model's ability to reproduce large-scale features of the historical climate, and evaluate the response of the model to external forcing. CanESM5 is comprised of three-dimensional atmosphere (T63 spectral resolution equivalent roughly to 2.8∘) and ocean (nominally 1∘) general circulation models, a sea-ice model, a land surface scheme, and explicit land and ocean carbon cycle models. The model features relatively coarse resolution and high throughput, which facilitates the production of large ensembles. CanESM5 has a notably higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.6 K) than its predecessor, CanESM2 (3.7 K), which we briefly discuss, along with simulated changes over the historical period. CanESM5 simulations contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and will be employed for climate science and service applications in Canada.
Journal Article
LongRunMIP
We present a model intercomparison project, LongRunMIP, the first collection of millennial-length (1,000+ years) simulations of complex coupled climate models with a representation of ocean, atmosphere, sea ice, and land surface, and their interactions. Standard model simulations are generally only a few hundred years long. However, modeling the long-term equilibration in response to radiative forcing perturbation is important for understanding many climate phenomena, such as the evolution of ocean circulation, time- and temperature-dependent feedbacks, and the differentiation of forced signal and internal variability. The aim of LongRunMIP is to facilitate research into these questions by serving as an archive for simulations that capture as much of this equilibration as possible. The only requirement to participate in LongRunMIP is to contribute a simulation with elevated, constant CO₂ forcing that lasts at least 1,000 years. LongRunMIP is an MIP of opportunity in that the simulations were mostly performed prior to the conception of the archive without an agreed-upon set of experiments. For most models, the archive contains a preindustrial control simulation and simulations with an idealized (typically abrupt) CO₂ forcing. We collect 2D surface and top-of-atmosphere fields and 3D ocean temperature and salinity fields. Here, we document the collection of simulations and discuss initial results, including the evolution of surface and deep ocean temperature and cloud radiative effects. As of October 2019, the collection includes 50 simulations of 15 models by 10 modeling centers. The data of LongRunMIP are publicly available. We encourage submissions of more simulations in the future.
Journal Article