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Earth’s climate history is often understood by breaking it down into constituent climatic epochs 1 . Over the Common Era (the past 2,000 years) these epochs, such as the Little Ice Age 2 – 4 , have been characterized as having occurred at the same time across extensive spatial scales 5 . Although the rapid global warming seen in observations over the past 150 years does show nearly global coherence 6 , the spatiotemporal coherence of climate epochs earlier in the Common Era has yet to be robustly tested. Here we use global palaeoclimate reconstructions for the past 2,000 years, and find no evidence for preindustrial globally coherent cold and warm epochs. In particular, we find that the coldest epoch of the last millennium—the putative Little Ice Age—is most likely to have experienced the coldest temperatures during the fifteenth century in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, during the seventeenth century in northwestern Europe and southeastern North America, and during the mid-nineteenth century over most of the remaining regions. Furthermore, the spatial coherence that does exist over the preindustrial Common Era is consistent with the spatial coherence of stochastic climatic variability. This lack of spatiotemporal coherence indicates that preindustrial forcing was not sufficient to produce globally synchronous extreme temperatures at multidecadal and centennial timescales. By contrast, we find that the warmest period of the past two millennia occurred during the twentieth century for more than 98 per cent of the globe. This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures 5 , but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years. Warm and cold periods over the past 2,000 years have not occurred at the same time in all geographical locations, with the exception of the twentieth century, during which warming has occurred almost everywhere.

The rapid Arctic warming in the early 2000s triggered a tremendous loss of multi‐year sea ice. Since then, sea ice age has been largely overlooked, despite its value in evaluating climate model skill in capturing sea ice dynamics. Comparing modeled sea‐ice age with observations is limited by differing methods for determining age, making fair comparison difficult. Here, we apply an ice‐tracking algorithm to diagnose sea ice age from daily concentration and drift data in a climate model and compare it to satellite‐derived estimates using the same method. We show that the derived sea ice age retains the spatial pattern and long‐term trends of the reported model age, but with less than half the bias. Changes in sea‐ice age highlight shifts in sea‐ice dynamics more clearly than thickness or volume. This shows that using a common algorithm enables both a fair model validation and improves insight into sea‐ice dynamics.

Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures over the past 8000 years have been paced by the slow decrease in summer insolation resulting from the precession of the equinoxes. However, the causes of superposed century‐scale cold summer anomalies, of which the Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most extreme, remain debated, largely because the natural forcings are either weak or, in the case of volcanism, short lived. Here we present precisely dated records of ice‐cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430–1455 AD. Intervals of sudden ice growth coincide with two of the most volcanically perturbed half centuries of the past millennium. A transient climate model simulation shows that explosive volcanism produces abrupt summer cooling at these times, and that cold summers can be maintained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed. Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50‐year‐long episode with four large sulfur‐rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg. The persistence of cold summers is best explained by consequent sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks during a hemispheric summer insolation minimum; large changes in solar irradiance are not required. Key Points Little Ice Age began abruptly in two steps Decadally paced explosive volcanism can explain the onset A sea‐ice/ocean feedback can sustain the abrupt cooling

Andean glaciers are losing mass rapidly but a centennial‐scale context to those rates is lacking. Here we show the extent of >5,500 glaciers during the Little Ice Age chronozone (LIA; c. 1,400 to c. 1,850) and compute an overall area change of −25% from then to year 2000 at an average rate of −36.5 km 2 yr −1 or −0.11% yr −1 . Glaciers in the Tropical Andes (Peru, Bolivia) have depleted the most; median −56% of LIA area, and the fastest; median −0.16% yr −1 . Up to 10 × acceleration in glacier area loss has occurred in Tropical mountain sub‐regions comparing LIA to 2,000 rates to post‐2000 rates. Regional climate controls inter‐regional variability, whereas local factors affect intra‐region glacier response time. Analyzing glacier area change by river basins and by protected areas leads us to suggest that conservation and environmental management strategies should be re‐visited as proglacial areas expand.

Societal upheaval occurred across Eurasia in the sixth and seventh centuries. Tree-ring reconstructions suggest a period of pronounced cooling during this time associated with several volcanic eruptions. Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe 1 , 2 and Asia 3 , 4 . In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , pandemics 7 , 8 , human migration and political turmoil 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 . Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring chronologies from the Russian Altai and European Alps to reconstruct summer temperatures over the past two millennia. We find an unprecedented, long-lasting and spatially synchronized cooling following a cluster of large volcanic eruptions in 536, 540 and 547  AD (ref.  14 ), which was probably sustained by ocean and sea-ice feedbacks 15 , 16 , as well as a solar minimum 17 . We thus identify the interval from 536 to about 660  AD as the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Spanning most of the Northern Hemisphere, we suggest that this cold phase be considered as an additional environmental factor contributing to the establishment of the Justinian plague 7 , 8 , transformation of the eastern Roman Empire and collapse of the Sasanian Empire 1 , 2 , 5 , movements out of the Asian steppe and Arabian Peninsula 8 , 11 , 12 , spread of Slavic-speaking peoples 9 , 10 and political upheavals in China 13 .

Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors of meltwater runoff and to global sea level rise. However, knowledge of GIC mass changes is largely restricted to the last few decades. Here we show the extent of 5327 Greenland GICs during Little Ice Age (LIA) termination (1900) and reveal that they have fragmented into 5467 glaciers in 2001, losing at least 587 km3 from their ablation areas, equating to 499 Gt at a rate of 4.34 Gt yr−1. We estimate that the long‐term mean mass balance in glacier ablation areas has been at least −0.18 to −0.22 m w.e. yr−1 and note the rate between 2000 and 2019 has been three times that. Glaciers with ice‐marginal lakes formed since the LIA termination have had the fastest changing mass balance. Considerable spatial variability in glacier changes suggest compounding regional and local factors present challenges for understanding glacier evolution. Plain Language Summary Glaciers and ice caps of Greenland peripheral to the ice sheet are important contributors of meltwater to the oceans and to global sea‐level rise. In this study we map the extent of 5467 glaciers during the Little Ice Age (LIA) termination c. 1900 and calculate that they have lost at least 587 km3. The rate of mass change of these glaciers between 2000 and 2019 was three times more negative than the long‐term average (of 4.34 Gt yr−1) since the LIA. Lake‐terminating glaciers now lose mass the fastest compared with land‐ or marine‐terminating glaciers. Considerable spatial variability in glacier responses suggests local factors are important and makes glacier evolution complex. Key Points Total volume loss of at least 587 km3 since the Little Ice Age (LIA) termination, equating to 499 Gt and to 1.38 mm sea level equivalent Glacier mass balance from 2000 to 2019 is three times more negative than since the LIA but five times more negative in the North region Lake‐terminating glaciers have experienced the greatest change in rate of mass loss

Meteorological station records, ice cores, and regional climate model output are combined to develop a continuous 171-yr (1840–2010) reconstruction of Greenland ice sheet climatic surface mass balance (Bclim) and its subcomponents including near-surface air temperature (SAT) since the end of the Little Ice Age. Independent observations are used to assess and compensate errors. Melt water production is computed using separate degree-day factors for snow and bare ice surfaces. A simple meltwater retention scheme yields the time variation of internal accumulation, runoff, and bare ice area. At decadal time scales over the 1840–2010 time span, summer (June–August) SAT increased by 1.64°C, driving a 59% surface meltwater production increase. Winter warming was +2.0°C. Substantial interdecadal variability linked with episodic volcanism and atmospheric circulation anomalies is also evident. Increasing accumulation and melt rates, bare ice area, and meltwater retention are driven by increasing SAT. As a consequence of increasing accumulation and melt rates, calculated meltwater retention by firn increased 51% over the period, nearly compensating a 63% runoff increase. Calculated ice sheet end of melt season bare ice area increased more than 5%. Multiple regression of interannual SAT and precipitation anomalies suggests a dominance of melting on Bclimand a positive SAT precipitation sensitivity (+32 Gt yr−1K−1or 6.8% K−1). The Bclimcomponent magnitudes from this study are compared with results from Hanna et al. Periods of shared interannual variability are evident. However, the long-term trend in accumulation differs in sign.

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Earth experienced a long‐term cooling trend during the middle‐late Devonian, culminating in the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA)—the longest icehouse in Earth's history. The onset of glaciation has been attributed to CO2 removal through silicate weathering, however previous carbon cycle models have failed to reproduce its timing. Here, we build a high‐resolution climate emulator using the Community Earth System Model and couple it with the SCION Earth Evolution model to better simulate continental weathering. This new framework successfully aligns modeled carbon drawdown and glaciation onset with geological proxy data. We find that additional cooling was driven by increased continental exposure during long‐term marine regression associated with Pangea's assembly, which boosted global weatherability and increased albedo. Our results highlight that changes in continental exposure are critical for long‐term climate evolution, and that high‐resolution climate models are needed to understand these impacts.

Rapid warming and human exploitation threaten boreal forests. Understanding links among vegetation, climate, and people in this vast biome requires highly resolved long‐term records that integrate regional inputs. We developed an 850‐year pollen‐based record of supraregional vegetation change using a southern Greenland ice core and atmospheric modeling that identified the boreal and mixed‐conifer forests of eastern Canada as the dominant pollen source regions. Conifer pollen increased ∼1400 CE at the onset of the cooler and drier Little Ice Age. A subsequent decline began ∼1650 CE and a statistically significant pollen change after 1760 CE suggests ecological consequences of the Little Ice Age cooling and initial human exploitation that persisted until recent decades. These supraregional changes are broadly consistent with local records and demonstrate intensification of human impacts on northern forests, suggesting a shift from a climate‐modulated to an increasingly human‐controlled system during recent centuries. Plain Language Summary Understanding the consequences of climate warming and human exploitation for northern forests requires long‐term regional records of this sparsely populated region. We present a first 850‐year vegetation record from a low‐elevation ice core in Southern Greenland. The ice core integrates pollen from Eastern Canadian forests and other boreal forests, providing temporal precision and regional coverage not available from previous paleoecological investigations. We show that climate change drove changes in the abundances of coniferous species during the Little Ice Age. Subsequent warming coincided with the onset of timber exploitation that brought a shift from a climate‐controlled to an increasingly human‐controlled system. Current warming trends likely will further alter vegetation distribution, productivity, and disturbance regimes of northern forests, but they will be moderated by the legacy of human impacts. Key Points Atmospheric model FLEXPART identifies boreal and mixed‐conifer forests in Canada as pollen source area for Southern Greenland ice core Pollen in Greenland ice track conifer pollen increases ∼1400 CE at the onset of the cooler and drier Little Ice Age Conifer pollen declines ∼1650 CE coincident with cold LIA climate and initial commercial forest exploitation