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Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species’ range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population‐based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population‐based models to compare with whole‐species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

Agricultural land use results in direct biodiversity decline through loss of natural habitat, but may also cause indirect cross-habitat effects on conservation areas. We conducted three landscape-scale field studies on 67 sites to test the hypothesis that mass flowering of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) results in a transient dilution of bees in crop fields, and in increased competition between crop plants and grassland plants for pollinators. Abundances of bumble-bees, which are the main pollinators of the grassland plant Primula veris, but also pollinate oilseed rape (OSR), decreased with increasing amount of OSR. This landscape-scale dilution affected bumble-bee abundances strongly in OSR fields and marginally in grasslands, where bumble-bee abundances were generally low at the time of Primula flowering. Seed set of Primula veris, which flowers during OSR bloom, was reduced by 20 per cent when the amount of OSR within 1 km radius increased from 0 to 15 per cent. Hence, the current expansion of bee-attractive biofuel crops results in transient dilution of crop pollinators, which means an increased competition for pollinators between crops and wild plants. In conclusion, mass-flowering crops potentially threaten fitness of concurrently flowering wild plants in conservation areas, despite the fact that, in the long run, mass-flowering crops can enhance abundances of generalist pollinators and their pollination service.

• Background and Aims Distyly is a floral polymorphism characterized by the presence of two discrete morphs with reciprocal positioning of anthers and stigmas in flowers on different plants within the same population. Although reciprocal herkogamy and associated floral traits are generally thought to be discrete and strict polymorphisms, little is known about variation in floral traits related to the distylous syndrome within and among populations of a single species. In this study, variation in floral morphology and reciprocal positioning of the sexual organs in the distylous Primula veris (cowslip) is quantified. • Methods Data were collected in ten populations occurring in two contrasting habitat types (grasslands and forests), and for each population the average level of reciprocity was assessed, the strength of the self-incompatibility system was determined, and seed production under natural conditions was quantified. • Results In grassland populations, flowers showed clear distyly with low and symmetric reciprocity indices at both the lower and upper level. In forests, P. veris produced larger flowers that showed strong deviations in stigmaanther separation, especially in the L-morph. This deviation was mainly driven by variation in stigma height, resulting in high and asymmetric reciprocity indices and the occurrence of several short-styled homostylous plants. Self-incompatibility was, however, strict in both habitats, and morph ratios did not differ significantly from isoplethy. The observed shift in reciprocity in forest populations was associated with a significant reduction in seed production in the L-morph. • Conclusions The results indicate that populations of P. veris show habitat-specific variation in flower morphology. Deviations from perfect reciprocal positioning of stigmas and anthers also translate into reduced seed production, suggesting that small changes in sexual organ reciprocity can have far-reaching ecological and evolutionary implications.

Purpose Climate change significantly affects the distribution of high-altitude plant species, particularly within the Primula Sect. Crystallophlomis found in Southwest China. This clade is valued for its ornamental and medicinal properties. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. crystallophlomis to inform conservation and ecological research. Methods An optimized Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized to predict the suitable habitat areas of P. crystallophlomis under 9 scenarios, using 161 distribution records and 22 environmental variables. The model parameters were set to RM = 1.5 and FC = LQH, achieving a high prediction accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.820. Results The analysis identified key environmental factors influencing the suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis , including annual precipitation (bio-12), temperature seasonality (bio-4), mean diurnal range (bio-2), and precipitation seasonality (bio-15). Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, exhibiting significant fragmentation. Notable declines in potential habitat area were observed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Mid-Holocene (MH), with future projections indicating further reductions, particularly under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP-585) scenario. Conclusion The suitable habitat of P. crystallophlomis , which tends to grow in consistently cold and moist environments, is expected to shrink, with a projected southward shift in its centroid. Global warming is anticipated to profoundly impact the suitable habitats of P. crystallophlomis , highlighting the urgent need for conservation efforts.

Sugar concentration in floral nectars is an assessment required in several diverse fields of application. The widely used analysis, consisting of nectar extraction with a microcapillary and sugar concentration measurement with a light refractometer, is not reliable when the nectar is secreted in small quantities, unextractable with a microcapillary. Ancillary methods adopted in such cases are destructive, rather complicated and often provide much less precise and accurate results. The microscopic-size, low cost and biocompatibility of optical fibers were exploited to deliver light directly inside the flower with minimal invasiveness and measure instantaneously the refractometric properties of the nectar without extracting it. After comparing the new and old methods using two known nectariferous species, the new approach was validated on Primula palinuri, whose nectar is unextractable with microcapillaries. The fiber-optic probe was able to measure the nectar refractive index in P. palinuri flowers making it possible to highlight a previously undetected significant trend of the sugar concentration throughout the long anthesis of the single flowers. Changes in nectar concentrations are similar in both longistylous and brevistylous flowers. The fiber-optic refractometer is an advancement of light refractometer analysis. Further customization of the laboratory set-up into portable equipment will boost applications.

Understanding the effects of past climatic fluctuations on the distribution and population-size dynamics of cold-adapted species is essential for predicting their responses to ongoing global climate change. In spite of the heterogeneity of cold-adapted species, two main contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain their responses to Late Quarternary glacial cycles, namely, the interglacial contraction versus the interglacial expansion hypotheses. Here, we use the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa to test two demographic models under each of the two alternative hypotheses and a fifth, null model. We first approximate the time and extent of demographic contractions and expansions during the Late Quaternary by projecting species distribution models across the last 72 ka. We also generate genome-wide sequence data using a Reduced Representation Library approach to reconstruct the spatial structure, genetic diversity, and phylogenetic relationships of lineages within P. farinosa. Finally, by integrating the results of climatic and genomic analyses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we propose the most likely model for the extent and direction of population-size changes in P. farinosa through the Late Quaternary. Our results support the interglacial expansion of P. farinosa, differing from the prevailing paradigm that the observed distribution of cold-adapted species currently fragmented in high altitude and latitude regions reflects the consequences of postglacial contraction processes.

Spatial variation in the direction of selection drives the evolution of adaptive differentiation. However, few experimental studies have examined the relative importance of different environmental factors for variation in selection and evolutionary trajectories in natural populations. Here, we combine 8 y of observational data and field experiments to assess the relative importance of mutualistic and antagonistic interactions for spatial variation in selection and short-term evolution of a genetically based floral display dimorphism in the short-lived perennial herb Primula farinosa . Natural populations of this species include two floral morphs: long-scaped plants that present their flowers well above the ground and short-scaped plants with flowers positioned close to the ground. The direction and magnitude of selection on scape morph varied among populations, and so did the frequency of the short morph (median 19%, range 0–100%; n = 69 populations). A field experiment replicated at four sites demonstrated that variation in the strength of interactions with grazers and pollinators were responsible for among-population differences in relative fitness of the two morphs. Selection exerted by grazers favored the short-scaped morph, whereas pollinator-mediated selection favored the long-scaped morph. Moreover, variation in selection among natural populations was associated with differences in morph frequency change, and the experimental removal of grazers at nine sites significantly reduced the frequency of the short-scaped morph over 8 y. The results demonstrate that spatial variation in intensity of grazing and pollination produces a selection mosaic, and that changes in biotic interactions can trigger rapid genetic changes in natural plant populations.

Background and AimsHeterostyly is a floral polymorphism that has fascinated evolutionary biologists since Darwin's seminal studies on primroses. The main morphological characteristic of heterostyly is the reciprocal placement of anthers and stigmas in two distinct (distyly) floral morphs. Variation in the degree of intermorph sexual reciprocity is relatively common and known to affect patterns of pollen transfer within species. However, the partitioning of sexual organ reciprocity within and between closely related species remains unknown. This study aimed at testing whether intermorph sexual reciprocity differs within vs. between primrose species that hybridize in nature and whether the positions of sexual organs are correlated with other floral traits.MethodsSix floral traits were measured in both floral morphs of 15 allopatric populations of Primula elatior, P. veris and P. vulgaris, and anther–stigma reciprocity was estimated within and between species. A combination of univariate and multivariate approaches was used to test whether positions of reproductive organs were less reciprocal between than within species, to assess correlations between sexual organ positions and other corolla traits, and to quantify differences between morphs and species.Key ResultsThe three species were morphologically well differentiated in most floral traits, except that P. veris and P. vulgaris did not differ significantly in sexual organ positions. Overall, lower interspecific than intraspecific sexual organ reciprocity was detected. This decrease was marked between P. elatior and P. vulgaris, intermediate and variable between P. elatior and P. veris, but negligible between P. veris and P. vulgaris.ConclusionsDifferences in anther and stigma heights between the analysed primrose species were of the same magnitude or larger than intraspecific differences that altered pollen flow within other heterostylous systems. Therefore, it is possible to suggest that considerable reductions of sexual organ reciprocity between species may lower interspecific pollen flow, with potential effects on reproductive isolation.

The goal of biological measurement is to capture underlying biological phenomena in numerical form. The reciprocity index applied to heterostylous flowers is meant to measure the degree of correspondence between fertile parts of opposite sex on complementary (inter-compatible) morphs, reflecting the correspondence of locations of pollen placement on, and stigma contact with, pollinators. Pollen of typical heterostylous flowers can achieve unimpeded fertilization only on opposite-morph flowers. Thus, the implicit goal of this measurement is to assess the likelihood of ‘legitimate’ pollinations between compatible morphs, and hence reproductive fitness. Previous reciprocity metrics fall short of this goal on both empirical and theoretical grounds. We propose a new measure of reciprocity based on theory that relates floral morphology to reproductive fitness. This method establishes a scale based on adaptive inaccuracy, a measure of the fitness cost of the deviation of phenotypes in a population from the optimal phenotype. Inaccuracy allows the estimation of independent contributions of maladaptive bias (mean departure from optimum) and imprecision (within-population variance) to the phenotypic mismatch (inaccuracy) of heterostylous morphs on a common scale. We illustrate this measure using data from three species of Primula (Primulaceae).

Polyploidization plays a key role in plant evolution. Despite the generally accepted 'minority-cytotype exclusion' theory, the specific mechanisms leading to successful establishment and persistence of new polyploids remain controversial. The majority of newly formed polyploids do not become established, because they are less common, have fewer potential mates or may not be able to compete successfully with co-occurring progenitors at lower ploidy levels. Changes in floral traits and ecological niches have been proposed as important mechanisms to overcome this initial frequency-dependent disadvantage. The aim of this study was to determine whether dodecaploids of the heterostylous P. marginata differ from their hexaploid progenitors in P. marginata and P. allionii for selected floral traits and ecological preferences that might be involved in establishment and persistence, providing a possible explanation for the origin of polyploidized populations. Floral morphological traits and ecological niche preferences among dodecaploids and their hexaploid progenitors in P. marginata and P. allionii ,: all restricted to the south-western Alps, were quantified and compared KEY RESULTS: Differences in floral traits were detected between dodecaploids and their closest relatives, but such differences might be too weak to counter the strength of minority cytotype disadvantage and are unlikely to enable the coexistence of different cytotypes. Furthermore, the results suggest the preservation of full distyly and no transition to selfing in dodecaploids. Finally, dodecaploids occur almost exclusively in environments that are predicted to be suitable also for their closest hexaploid relatives. In light of the results, P. marginata dodecaploids have probably been able to establish and persist by occupying geographical areas not yet filled by their closest relatives without significant evolution in their climatic and pollination niches. Dispersal limitation and minority-cytotype exclusion probably maintain their current range disjunct from those of its close relatives.