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The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Objectives To investigate the cost-effectiveness of supplemental short-protocol brain MRI after negative non-contrast CT for the detection of minor strokes in emergency patients with mild and unspecific neurological symptoms. Methods The economic evaluation was centered around a prospective single-center diagnostic accuracy study validating the use of short-protocol brain MRI in the emergency setting. A decision-analytic Markov model distinguished the strategies “no additional imaging” and “additional short-protocol MRI” for evaluation. Minor stroke was assumed to be missed in the initial evaluation in 40% of patients without short-protocol MRI. Specialized post-stroke care with immediate secondary prophylaxis was assumed for patients with detected minor stroke. Utilities and quality-of-life measures were estimated as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Input parameters were obtained from the literature. The Markov model simulated a follow-up period of up to 30 years. Willingness to pay was set to $100,000 per QALY. Cost-effectiveness was calculated and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results Additional short-protocol MRI was the dominant strategy with overall costs of $26,304 (CT only: $27,109). Cumulative calculated effectiveness in the CT-only group was 14.25 QALYs (short-protocol MRI group: 14.31 QALYs). In the deterministic sensitivity analysis, additional short-protocol MRI remained the dominant strategy in all investigated ranges. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results from the base case analysis were confirmed, and additional short-protocol MRI resulted in lower costs and higher effectiveness. Conclusion Additional short-protocol MRI in emergency patients with mild and unspecific neurological symptoms enables timely secondary prophylaxis through detection of minor strokes, resulting in lower costs and higher cumulative QALYs. Key Points • Short-protocol brain MRI after negative head CT in selected emergency patients with mild and unspecific neurological symptoms allows for timely detection of minor strokes. • This strategy supports clinical decision-making with regard to immediate initiation of secondary prophylactic treatment, potentially preventing subsequent major strokes with associated high costs and reduced QALY. • According to the Markov model, additional short-protocol MRI remained the dominant strategy over wide variations of input parameters, even when assuming disproportionally high costs of the supplemental MRI scan.

Background and objectives Motor Neuron Diseases (MND) are rare diseases but have a high impact on affected individuals and society. This study aims to perform an economic evaluation of MND in Germany. Methods Primary patient-reported data were collected including individual impairment, the use of medical and non-medical resources, and self-rated Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL). Annual socio-economic costs per year as well as Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) were calculated. Results 404 patients with a diagnosis of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) or Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP) were enrolled. Total annual costs per patient were estimated at 83,060€ in ALS, 206,856€ in SMA and 27,074€ in HSP. The main cost drivers were informal care (all MND) and disease-modifying treatments (SMA). Self-reported HRQoL was best in patients with HSP (mean EuroQoL Five Dimension Five Level (EQ-5D-5L) index value 0.67) and lowest in SMA patients (mean EQ-5D-5L index value 0.39). QALYs for patients with ALS were estimated to be 1.89 QALYs, 23.08 for patients with HSP and 14.97 for patients with SMA, respectively. Cost-utilities were estimated as follows: 138,960€/QALY for ALS, 525,033€/QALY for SMA, and 49,573€/QALY for HSP. The main predictors of the high cost of illness and low HRQoL were disease progression and loss of individual autonomy. Conclusion As loss of individual autonomy was the main cost predictor, therapeutic and supportive measures to maintain this autonomy may contribute to reducing high personal burden and also long-term costs, e.g., care dependency and absenteeism from work.

With the vast development of technology and the evolving needs of patients and health care providers, electronic medical records (EMRs) have become a cornerstone for health information. However, different institutions have used different EMR systems. Our study investigates the potential benefits of implementing an integrated and common platform, known as the Next Generation Electronic Medical Record (NGEMR) in Singapore. The NGEMR allows improved data sharing between health care facilities and can promote better coordination between primary care and specialist care doctors to access patients' records from the same database. This study aims to conduct an economic evaluation of the NGEMR to inform future health care system upgrades. A cost-utility analysis comparing NGEMR with the legacy EMR was conducted using a decision tree model with a 1-year time horizon from a health care system perspective. Input parameters of patients visiting primary care at the National University Polyclinics and specialist outpatient clinics from a General Hospital were extracted from the EMR systems. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated using costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). NGEMR was cost-effective and yielded a marginal health benefit (0.00006 QALYs gained) at a slightly higher cost (S $2.73; US $2.02), with an ICER of S $46,349 (US $34,298) per QALY. At the willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5- and 1-time gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (S $48,899; US $36,185 and S $97,798; US $72,371 per QALY), the implementation of NGEMR had a 52.2% and 64.7% probability of being cost-effective, respectively. The reduction in waiting time to see a specialist resulted in 2.3% fewer hospitalizations. The most influential parameter on the ICER was the probability of receiving duplicate tests, followed by the costs of admission and the probability of seeing a specialist. Reducing the probability of receiving duplicate tests for NGEMR from 20.7% to 13.2% resulted in a cost-saving ICER. A threshold analysis on the proportion of patients with a waiting time of less than 20 days for NGEMR was further explored, as it was a sensitive parameter on the cost-effectiveness of NGEMR. Increasing the proportion of patients with a waiting time of less than 20 days from 45.5% to 56% would result in cost savings for NGEMR. The adoption of NGEMR is cost-effective in Singapore. Beyond cost-effectiveness, the reduction of waiting time between primary and specialist care can lower the possibility of patients' health deterioration, thus reducing hospital admissions. We recommend continuous monitoring of waiting times and the likelihood of having duplicate tests as countries transition from basic to advanced-level EMR systems. Future analyses could benefit from more granular data on timing and clinical indications and incorporate real-world local data as they become available through ongoing NGEMR rollout evaluations.

Health care is undergoing a “revolution,” where patients are becoming consumers and armed with apps, consumer review scores, and, in some countries, high out-of-pocket costs. Although economic analyses and health technology assessment (HTA) have come a long way in their evaluation of the clinical, economic, ethical, legal, and societal perspectives that may be impacted by new technologies and procedures, these approaches do not reflect underlying patient preferences that may be important in the assessment of “value” in the current value-based health care transition. The major challenges that come with the transformation to a value-based health care system lead to questions such as “How are economic analyses, often the basis for policy and reimbursement decisions, going to switch from a societal to an individual perspective?” and “How do we then assess (economic) value, considering individual preference heterogeneity, as well as varying heuristics and decision rules?” These challenges, related to including the individual perspective in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), have been widely debated. Cost-effectiveness measures treatments in terms of costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), where QALYs assume that a health state that is more desirable is more valuable, and therefore, value is equated with preference or desirability. QALYs have long been criticized for empirical and conceptual shortcomings. However, policy makers in many countries have used QALY measures to make health coverage decisions, although now, patients, and patient advocates, are questioning the valuation methodologies. This has led to the development of new approaches to valuing health, which are already starting to be used in the United States. This paper reviews 20-25 years of value assessment approaches in health and concludes with challenges and opportunities for value assessment methods in health in the years to come.

•We compared strategies of influenza and 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23).•When compared with no vaccine, all vaccine strategies were cost-effective.•The earlier age of PPV23 was cost-effective in comparison with current programme.•Our findings could help inform design and implementation of vaccination strategies. Pneumococcal infection is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) together with influenza vaccination or pneumococcal vaccination alone in adults starting from 50 years vs. 65 years in Hong Kong. A hypothetical population of 100,000 older adults was included in a Markov model with age ranging from 50 to 85 years to calculate the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained for vaccination strategies, including: (1) annual influenza vaccine and PPV23 at 50 and 65 years; (2) annual influenza vaccine and PPV23 at 65 years (similar with the current vaccination programme); (3) PPV23 at 50 and 65 years; (4) PPV23 at 65 years; and (5) no vaccination. We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and used Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The cost-effectiveness threshold was extracted from previous literature. In comparison with no vaccination, all strategies were cost-effective with ICERs less than the threshold (US$24,302 per QALY gained). When compared with no vaccination, strategies 1–4 saved US$ 49.5, US$ 94.9, US$ 584.3, and US$ 1114.2 to gain one QALY respectively. In comparison with strategy 2, strategy 1 spent US$ 195.3 to gain one QALY, whilst strategies 3 and 4 showed less effectiveness with increased costs. All vaccination strategies were cost-effective, among which the strategy of PPV23 at 50/65 years with annual influenza vaccine was cost-effective even in comparison with current vaccination programme. These findings could help inform the design and implementation of vaccination strategies.

To analyse and compare the cost-effectiveness of different interventions to reduce salt consumption. A systematic review of published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) and cost-utility analyses (CUA) was undertaken in the databases EMBASE, MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane and others until July 2016. Study selection was limited to CEA and CUA conducted in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in English, German or French, without time limit. Outcomes measures were life years gained (LYG), disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Relevant aspects in modelling were analysed and compared. Quality assessments were conducted using the Drummond and Jefferson/British Medical Journal checklist. OECD member countries. Mainly adults. Fourteen CEA and CUA were included in the review which analysed different strategies: salt reduction or substitution in processed foods, taxes, labelling, awareness campaigns and targeted dietary advice. Fifty-nine out of sixty-two scenarios were cost-saving. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in international dollars (Intl.$; 2015) was particularly low for taxes, a salt reduction by food manufacturers and labelling (303 900 Intl.$/DALY). However, only six studies analysed cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective and quality assessments showed flaws in conducting and a lack of transparency in reporting. A population-wide salt reduction could be cost-effective in prevention of hypertension and CVD in OECD member countries. However, comparability between study results is limited due to differences in modelling, applied perspectives and considered data.

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundThe epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.MethodsInjury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.ResultsFor many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.ConclusionsThe overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

To describe and systematically review the modelling and reporting of cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination in Hong Kong, and to identify areas for quality enhancement in future cost-effectiveness analyses. We conducted a comprehensive and systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies related to vaccination and government immunisation programmes in Hong Kong published from 1990 to 2015, through database search of Pubmed, Web of Science, Embase, and OVID Medline. Methodological quality of selected studies was assessed using Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist (CHEERS). Decision making of vaccination was obtained from Scientific Committee on Vaccine Preventable Diseases (SCVPD) and Department of Health in Hong Kong. Nine eligible studies reporting twelve comparative cost-effectiveness comparisons of vaccination programme for influenza (n=2), pneumococcal disease (n=3), influenza plus pneumococcal disease (n=1), chickenpox (n=2), Haemophilus influenzae b (n=1), hepatitis A (n=1), cervical cancer (n=1) and rotavirus (n=1) were identified. Ten comparisons (83.3%) calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a vaccination strategy versus status quo as outcomes in terms of cost in USD per life-years, cost per quality-adjusted life-years, or cost per disability-adjusted life-years. Among those 10 comparisons in base-case scenario, 4 evaluated interventions were cost-saving relative to status quo while the ICER estimates in 3 of the 6 remaining comparisons were far below commonly accepted threshold and WHO willingness-to-pay threshold, suggestive of very cost-effective. Seven studies were of good quality based on the CHEERS checklist; one was of moderate quality; and one was of excellent quality. The common methodological problems were characterisation of heterogeneity and reporting of study parameters. There was a paucity of cost-effectiveness models evaluating vaccination targeted to the Hong Kong population. All evaluated vaccinations and immunisation interventions in Hong Kong, except for Haemophilus influenzae b, hepatitis A and HPV vaccinations, were considered either cost-saving or very cost-effective when compared to status quo.