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P13 Seasonal variation in exacerbation risk following severe AECOPD
IntroductionAdmission to hospital with a severe exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is associated with an increased risk of further exacerbations, readmission and death. Seasonality can affect exacerbation phenotype (Aung et al, 2024), but it remains unclear how season of onset affects ongoing risk following severe AECOPD.MethodsCOPD-HELP was a single-centre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial that recruited 238 participants during hospitalisation for AECOPD and allocated them 1:1 to mepolizumab or placebo for 48 weeks. All participants had an eosinophil count ≥300 cells/µL on at least one occasion in the prior 12 months, were established on inhaled corticosteroids and current or ex-smokers. Full details are published elsewhere. (Flynn et al., 2025)For this analysis, 119 participants on placebo were included. Exacerbation rates were analysed based on an individual’s season of entry into the trial.. Entry into trial occurred within a week of a severe AECOPD for all participants. Exacerbation rates were calculated as the total number of exacerbations per participant, offset by time in trial. A linear regression model was fitted, using season of study enrolment as the primary predictor variable and exacerbation rate in the preceding 12 months as a covariateResultsAdjusted annual exacerbation rates varied significantly by season, with the highest rate in summer (adjusted mean 5.76, 95% CI, 5.33 – 6.19), followed by autumn (4.02, 95% CI, 3.47 – 4.57), spring (3.98, 95% CI, 3.28 – 4.69), and lowest in winter (3.48, 95% CI, 2.92 – 4.04). This represents a relative increase of 65% following an exacerbation in summer compared to winter.Abstract P13 Figure 1[Image Omitted. See PDF.]ConclusionsIn an eosinophilic COPD population, severe exacerbations in summer were associated with a higher rate of exacerbations in the following year than those in any other season. This group may be particularly susceptible to environmental exposures such as increased pollen levels, pollution index or other seasonal allergens. Greater understanding of seasonal dynamics and mechanisms driving recurrent exacerbations could play a role in risk reduction and post exacerbation care and guidance.
Journal Article
The four seasons
\"Read about the things that change outdoors with the season, including the hours of sunlight and the temperature\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Evaluation of WRF Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011
To develop a finescale dataset for the purpose of analyzing historical climatic change over the Tibet Plateau (TP), a high-resolution regional climate simulation for 1979–2011 was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model driven by the ERA-Interim (ERA-Int). This work evaluates the high-resolution (30 km) WRF simulation in terms of annual variation, spatial structure, and 33-yr temporal trends of surface air temperature (Tair) and precipitation (Prec) over the TP, with reference to station observations. Another focus is on the examination of the height–temperature relationship. Inheriting from its forcing, the WRF simulation presents an apparent cold bias in the TP. The cold bias is largely reduced by a lapse rate correction of the simulated surface air temperature with help of the station and model elevations. ERA-Int presents the same sign of Tair and Prec trends as the observations, but with smaller magnitude, especially in the dry season. Compared to its forcing, the WRF simulation improves the simulation of the annual cycles and temporal trends of Tair and Prec in the wet season. In the dry season, however, there is hardly any improvement. The observed Tair presents a downward linear trend in the lapse rate. This feature is examined in the WRF simulation in comparison to ERA-Int. The WRF simulation captures the observed lapse rate and its temporal trend better than ERA-Int. The decreasing lapse rate over time confirms that Tair change in the TP is elevation dependent.
Journal Article
I know the seasons
Winter, spring, summer, and fall-- each season has its unique identifying features as well as its exciting activities. Readers will become well acquainted with these as they learn about the four seasons.
Book
Moving to stay in place: behavioral mechanisms for coexistence of African large carnivores
Most ecosystems have multiple predator species that not only compete for shared prey, but also pose direct threats to each other. These intraguild interactions are key drivers of carnivore community structure, with ecosystem‐wide cascading effects. Yet, behavioral mechanisms for coexistence of multiple carnivore species remain poorly understood. The challenges of studying large, free‐ranging carnivores have resulted in mainly coarse‐scale examination of behavioral strategies without information about all interacting competitors. We overcame some of these challenges by examining the concurrent fine‐scale movement decisions of almost all individuals of four large mammalian carnivore species in a closed terrestrial system. We found that the intensity of intraguild interactions did not follow a simple hierarchical allometric pattern, because spatial and behavioral tactics of subordinate species changed with threat and resource levels across seasons. Lions (Panthera leo) were generally unrestricted and anchored themselves in areas rich in not only their principal prey, but also, during periods of resource limitation (dry season), rich in the main prey for other carnivores. Because of this, the greatest cost (potential intraguild predation) for subordinate carnivores was spatially coupled with the highest potential benefit of resource acquisition (prey‐rich areas), especially in the dry season. Leopard (P. pardus) and cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) overlapped with the home range of lions but minimized their risk using fine‐scaled avoidance behaviors and restricted resource acquisition tactics. The cost of intraguild competition was most apparent for cheetahs, especially during the wet season, as areas with energetically rewarding large prey (wildebeest) were avoided when they overlapped highly with the activity areas of lions. Contrary to expectation, the smallest species (African wild dog, Lycaon pictus) did not avoid only lions, but also used multiple tactics to minimize encountering all other competitors. Intraguild competition thus forced wild dogs into areas with the lowest resource availability year round. Coexistence of multiple carnivore species has typically been explained by dietary niche separation, but our multi‐scaled movement results suggest that differences in resource acquisition may instead be a consequence of avoiding intraguild competition. We generate a more realistic representation of hierarchical behavioral interactions that may ultimately drive spatially explicit trophic structures of multi‐predator communities.
Journal Article
Hi, Koo! : a year of seasons
Jon J Muth--and his delightful little panda bear, Koo--challenge readers to stretch their minds and imaginations with twenty-six haikus about the four seasons.
Book
Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long-lived seabird
1.Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete.2.Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long-l ived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black- browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: “Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?”3.We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of cli-mate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and func-tional trait changes affect the population growth rate.4.The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry- over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at- sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activ-ity during the pre- breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate.5.These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry- over ef-fects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple sea-sons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demo-graphic rates across the complete life cycle.
Journal Article
Every season
With simple text and bright photographs presents a portrait of nature through the seasons of the year.
Braille
Responses of legumes and grasses to non-, moderate, and dense shade in Missouri, USA. I. Forage yield and its species-level plasticity
Annual screenings of forage grasses and legumes for shade tolerance were conducted from 1996 to 2001 in the outdoor Shade Tolerance Screening Laboratory at the Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center, University of Missouri. Forty-three forages were grown under non-shade (100% of full sunlight), moderate shade (45%), and dense shade (20%) without competition for water and nutrients. Annual forage yield (g pot−1) was equal to or higher under moderate shade for all 43 forages and under dense shade for 31 forages than the non-shade control. Relative distance plasticity index (RDPI), a measure of a species’ adaptability to different environments, ranged from 0.104 to 0.567. Cool season grasses had the lowest RDPI (0.183), followed by warm season grasses (0.252), warm season legumes (0.274), and cool season legumes (0.314), indicating grasses tend to be more shade tolerant than legumes in terms of forage yield. Overall, most grass and legume forages have the potential to produce equivalent or higher yields in agroforestry practices featuring light to moderate shade than forages in open pastures when competition from tree roots is minimized.
Journal Article