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Japan is aging and has the highest government debt-to-output ratio among advanced economies. In this article, we build a micro data-based, large-scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules. Using existing pension law, current fiscal policy, and medium variants of demographic projections, we produce future paths for government expenditures and tax revenues, with implications for government debt and the public pension fund. Additional pension reform, a higher consumption tax, and higher female labor force participation help achieve fiscal stability.

Forest cover has increased world‐wide over the last decade despite continuous forest fragmentation. However, a lack of long‐term demographic data hinders our understanding of the spatial dynamics of colonization in remnant populations inhabiting recently protected areas or set‐aside rural lands. We investigated the population expansion of the Phoenician juniper (Juniperus phoenicea subsp. turbinata), which is an endozoochorous Mediterranean tree species inhabiting landscapes that have been managed for many centuries. By combining the photointerpretation of aerial photos that have been taken over the last 50 years with in situ sampling and spatial analyses of replicated plots, we estimated the population growth over the chronosequence; identified hotspots, coldspots and outliers of regeneration; and assessed the roles of key environmental factors in driving demographic expansion patterns, including elevation, initial density and distance to remnant forests. Ecological factors leading to seed limitation, such as initial plant density, are expected to drive colonization patterns at the early stages. Factors mediating the competition for limiting resources, such as water availability, would prevail at later stages of expansion. We further expect that nucleated colonization patterns emerge driven by vertebrate seed dispersal. The photointerpretation of aerial images in combination with in situ measurements has yielded reliable density data. Overall, our results show a marked demographic expansion during the first decade followed by a period of steady and heterogeneous population growth with signs of local population decline. We found evidence of nucleated establishment patterns as expected for an endozoochorous species. Hotspots and outliers of regeneration emerged throughout the study chronosequence, whereas coldspots of regeneration only appeared at advanced colonization stages. Factors influencing dispersal limitation had contrasting effects at different colonization stages, and the initial density influenced population growth at various spatial scales. Synthesis. The photointerpretation of aerial images shows that the influence of dispersal limitation versus factors mediating competitive responses changes throughout colonization stages. Whereas dispersal limitation is the main factor influencing colonization at early stages, competition for local resources controls population growth at later stages. Therefore, long‐term studies are required to capture the overall combined influence of key ecological factors in shaping long‐term spatial demographic trends.

Although integrated assessment models (IAM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consider population as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, how population dynamics affect climate change is still under debate. Population is rarely mentioned in policy debates on climate change. Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of population and climate interactions. In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban-rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system. Moreover, studies by the impact, vulnerability and adaptation (IAV) community also reveal that population dynamics are critical in the near term for building climate change resilience and within adaptation strategies. This paper explores how global population dynamics affect carbon emissions and climate systems, how recent demographic trends matter to worldwide efforts to adapt to climate change, and how population policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The Trump presidency generated concern about democratic backsliding and renewed interest in measuring the national democratic performance of the United States. However, the US has a decentralized form of federalism that administers democratic institutions at the state level. Using 51 indicators of electoral democracy from 2000 to 2018, I develop a measure of subnational democratic performance, the State Democracy Index. I then test theories of democratic expansion and backsliding based in party competition, polarization, demographic change, and the group interests of national party coalitions. Difference-in-differences results suggest a minimal role for all factors except Republican control of state government, which dramatically reduces states’ democratic performance during this period. This result calls into question theories focused on changes within states. The racial, geographic, and economic incentives of groups in national party coalitions may instead determine the health of democracy in the states.

This paper argues that contemporary processes of extended urbanisation, which include suburbanisation, post-suburbanisation and peri-urbanisation, may result in increased vulnerability to infectious disease spread. Through a review of existing literature at the nexus of urbanisation and infectious disease, we consider how this (potential) increased vulnerability to infectious diseases in peri– or suburban areas is in fact dialectically related to socio-material transformations on the metropolitan edge. In particular, we highlight three key factors influencing the spread of infectious disease that have been identified in the literature: demographic change, infrastructure and governance. These have been chosen given both the prominence of these themes and their role in shaping the spread of disease on the urban edge. Further, we suggest how a landscape political ecology framework can be useful for examining the role of socioecological transformations in generating increased risk of infectious disease in peri–and suburban areas. To illustrate our arguments we will draw upon examples from various re-emerging infectious disease events and outbreaks around the world to reveal how extended urbanisation in the broadest sense has amplified the conditions necessary for the spread of infectious diseases. We thus call for future research on the spatialities of health and disease to pay attention to how variegated patterns of extended urbanisation may influence possible outbreaks and the mechanisms through which such risks can be alleviated. 本文认为，当代的扩展城市化进程，包括郊区化、后郊区化和周边城市化，可能会导致传染病传播方面脆弱性的增加。通过回顾现有的关于城市化和传染病之间关系的文献，我们研究这种（潜在的 ）周边或郊区传染病脆弱性的增加与大都市边缘的社会物质转变之间是如何辩证相关的。特别是，我们强调了文献中确定的影响传染病传播的三个关键因素：人口变化、基础设施和治理。鉴于这些主题的突出性及其在城市边缘疾病传播中的作用，我们选择了这些主题。此外，我们提出了景观政治生态框架在研究社会生态转变对周边和郊区传染病风险增高的影响方面的作用。为了说明我们的论点，我们将使用世界各地各种重新出现的传染病事件和爆发的例子，揭示了最广以上的城市化扩展如何扩大了传染病传播的必要条件。因此，我们呼吁，在未来对健康和疾病的空间关系的研究中，应关注各种不同的扩展城市化模式对疾病爆发风险的影响，以及减轻这种风险的机制。

In this paper we look at a panel of OECD aggregate fertility and labor market data between 1970 and 1995 and we report some striking recent developments. Total Fertility Rates (TFR) were falling and Female Participation Rates (FPR) were increasing, conforming to a well known long-run trend. Along the cross-sectional dimension, the correlation between TFR and FPR was negative and significant during the 1970's and up to the early 1980's. This seemed consistent with secular comovements. However, by the late 1980's the correlation had become positive and equally significant. We discuss our findings within the framework of standard neoclassical models of fertility and labor supply adapted to macro data, as in Butz and Ward (1979).

This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effeaiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post-WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post-WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, \"substitution effects\" can limit their effeaiveness, or even make them counterproduaive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting \"now or never\" migration surges. These effeas expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.

The increasing proportion of persons living alone has come to be emblematic in many ways of modern Western societies because it represents the importance conceded to the individual and to individual goals at the expense, basically, of the family. Solo living has been interpreted within the context of changing values and preferences, changing personal and conjugal realities, and the changing work contexts so often associated with the Second Demographic Transition. We know little about patterns and trends in living alone over the life course in much of the world because most research to date has concentrated on regional and national portrayals or on living arrangements in later life. This study provides a systematic look at the differences in living alone by age and sex in 113 countries. Our aim is to understand the extent to which behavior differs around the world and the implications this has for society. We also examine the relationship between trends in living alone and levels of human development. Results are taken from three massive dataseis: census and survey microdata from IPUMS-international, Demographic Health Surveys, and EU-Labor Force Surveys.

Public attitudes and policies toward LGBTQ individuals have improved substantially in recent decades. Economists are actively shaping the discourse around these policies and contributing to our understanding of the economic lives of LGBTQ individuals. In this paper, we present the most up-to-date estimates of the size, location, demographic characteristics, and family structures of LGBTQ individuals in the United States. We describe an emerging literature on the effects of legal access to same-sex marriage on family and socioeconomic outcomes. We also summarize what is known about the size, direction, and sources of wage differentials related to variation in sexual orientation and gender identity. We conclude by describing a range of open questions in LGBTQ economics.