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Elements of rock physics and their application to inversion and AVO studies
\"This book deals with a series of topics in rock physics, including elasticity, pore pressure, incompressibility of rocks and the Gassmann equation, fluid substitution, forward modeling and empirical equations, rock physics applications to AVO studies and inversion studies, and the Differential Effective Medium (DEM) method\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Comprehensive review of carbon quantification by improved forest management offset protocols
Improved forest management (IFM) has the potential to remove and store large quantities of carbon from the atmosphere. Around the world, 293 IFM offset projects have produced 11% of offset credits by voluntary offset registries to date, channeling substantial climate mitigation funds into forest management projects. This paper summarizes the state of the scientific literature for key carbon offset quality criteria—additionality, baselines, leakage, durability, and forest carbon accounting—and discusses how well currently used IFM protocols align with this literature. Our analysis identifies important areas where the protocols deviate from scientific understanding related to baselines, leakage, risk of reversal, and the accounting of carbon in forests and harvested wood products, risking significant over-estimation of carbon offset credits. We recommend specific improvements to the protocols that would likely result in more accurate estimates of program impact, and identify areas in need of more research. Most importantly, more conservative baselines can substantially reduce, but not resolve, over-crediting risk from multiple factors.
Journal Article
Combined CO.sub.2 measurement record indicates Amazon forest carbon uptake is offset by savanna carbon release
In tropical South America there has been substantial progress in atmospheric monitoring capacity, but the region still has a limited number of continental atmospheric stations relative to its large area, hindering net carbon flux estimates using atmospheric inversions. In this study, we use dry-air CO.sub.2 mole fractions measured at the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) and airborne vertical CO.sub.2 profiles in an atmospheric inversion system to estimate net carbon exchange in tropical South America from 2010 to 2018. Given previous knowledge of a bias due to undried samples in the airborne vertical profiles, we calculate the effect of this systematic uncertainty in our inverse estimates and propose a water-vapor correction to the airborne CO.sub.2 profiles. We focus our analysis on the biogeographic Amazon and its neighboring \"Cerrado and Caatinga\" biomes. Including the water-vapor correction changes the posterior ensemble median from -0.33 to -0.04 PgC yr.sup.-1 with a posterior uncertainty of 0.33 PgC yr.sup.-1 for the Amazon and for the Cerrado and Caatinga from 0.31 to 0.50 PgC yr.sup.-1, with an uncertainty of 0.24 PgC yr.sup.-1 . Our estimates of carbon exchange include the contributions from both net vegetation exchange and release from fires. Assuming that the correction brings the observational data closer to the truth implies that the Amazon is a weaker sink of carbon and that the Cerrado and Caatinga is a larger source. We do not find a strong spatial shift of fluxes within the biogeographic Amazon due to the correction, nor do we find a strong impact on the interannual variations. Finally, to further reduce the uncertainty in regional carbon balance estimates in tropical South America, we call for an expansion of the atmospheric monitoring network on the continent, mainly in the Amazon-Andes foothills.
Journal Article
Perverse incentives risk undermining biodiversity offset policies
Offsetting is emerging as an important but controversial approach for managing environment–development conflicts. Biodiversity offsets are designed to compensate for damage to biodiversity from development by providing biodiversity gains elsewhere. Here, we suggest how biodiversity offset policies can generate behaviours that exacerbate biodiversity decline, and identify four perverse incentives that could arise even from soundly designed policies. These include incentives for (i) entrenching or exacerbating baseline biodiversity declines, (ii) winding back non‐offset conservation actions, (iii) crowding out of conservation volunteerism and (iv) false public confidence in environmental outcomes due to marketing offset actions as gains. Synthesis and applications. Despite its goal of improving biodiversity outcomes, there is potential for best‐practice offsetting to achieve the opposite result. Reducing this risk requires coupling offset crediting baselines to measured trajectories of biodiversity change and understanding the potential interaction between offsetting and other environmental policies.
Journal Article
Matching problems in biodiversity offset markets: a case study of the New South Wales biodiversity offsets scheme
Biodiversity offset credits in New South Wales are transacted within a regulatory environment defined by detailed trading rules and many different types of biodiversity credits that can lead to thin markets and high transaction costs. This paper describes a market designed to facilitate efficient and effective transactions. The market includes a search algorithm to identify who can exchange with whom, according to the regulatory constraints, and an online exchange tool to facilitate efficient price discovery and allocation of offset contracts.
Journal Article
Overstated carbon emission reductions from voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has gained international attention over the past decade, as manifested in both United Nations policy discussions and hundreds of voluntary projects launched to earn carbon-offset credits. There are ongoing discussions about whether and how projects should be integrated into national climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris Agreement. One consideration is whether these projects have generated additional impacts over and above national policies and other measures. To help inform these discussions, we compare the crediting baselines established ex-ante by voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon to counterfactuals constructed ex-post based on the quasi-experimental synthetic control method. We find that the crediting baselines assume consistently higher deforestation than counterfactual forest loss in synthetic control sites. This gap is partially due to decreased deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the early implementation phase of the REDD+ projects considered here. This suggests that forest carbon finance must strike a balance between controlling conservation investment risk and ensuring the environmental integrity of carbon emission offsets. Relatedly, our results point to the need to better align project- and national-level carbon accounting.
Journal Article
Coexistence of hidden chaotic attractors in a novel no-equilibrium system
Hidden attractors have received considerable interest in physics, mechanics and other dynamical areas recently. This paper introduces a novel autonomous system with hidden attractor. In particular, there exists no-equilibrium point in this system. Although the new system is simple with six terms, it exhibits complex behavior such as chaos and multistability. In addition, the offset boosting of a variable is achieved by adding a single controlled constant. Dynamical properties of the no-equilibrium system have been discovered by using nonlinear dynamical tools as well as an electronic implementation.
Journal Article
Cost calculation and prioritization of the interprovincial carbon offset in China
Abstract
This paper aims to explore the cost and order of carbon offsetting across provinces in China. A calculation model for the modified carbon debt is established to calculate the modified carbon offset costs among 30 provinces in China and further utilize the comprehensive carbon offset priority to determine the payment and acceptance order of modified carbon offset costs among provinces. The results can provide quantitative information to support the formulation of carbon offset policies. This paper did not distinguish tree species and tree age when calculating forest carbon absorption, and the selection of indicators was not comprehensive enough.
Journal Article