Journal Article

Changing dynamics of the drug overdose epidemic in the United States from 1979 through 2016

Burke, Donald S., Jalal, Hawre, Zhang, Kun, Roberts, Mark S., Buchanich, Jeanine M., Balmert, Lauren C.

2018

Overview

There is a developing drug epidemic in the United States. Jalal et al. analyzed nearly 600,000 unintentional drug overdoses over a 38-year period. Although the overall mortality rate closely followed an exponential growth curve, the pattern itself is a composite of several underlying subepidemics of different drugs. Geographic hotspots have developed over time, as well as drug-specific demographic differences. Science , this issue p. eaau1184 The drug overdose epidemic in the United States is a composite of drug-specific subepidemics. Better understanding of the dynamics of the current U.S. overdose epidemic may aid in the development of more effective prevention and control strategies. We analyzed records of 599,255 deaths from 1979 through 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System in which accidental drug poisoning was identified as the main cause of death. By examining all available data on accidental poisoning deaths back to 1979 and showing that the overall 38-year curve is exponential, we provide evidence that the current wave of opioid overdose deaths (due to prescription opioids, heroin, and fentanyl) may just be the latest manifestation of a more fundamental longer-term process. The 38+ year smooth exponential curve of total U.S. annual accidental drug poisoning deaths is a composite of multiple distinctive subepidemics of different drugs (primarily prescription opioids, heroin, methadone, synthetic opioids, cocaine, and methamphetamine), each with its own specific demographic and geographic characteristics.

• Publisher: The American Association for the Advancement of Science
• Subject: Accidental poisoning / Analgesics, Opioid - administration & dosage / Cause of Death / Cocaine / Death / Deceleration / Demographics / Demography / Disease control / Drug abuse / Drug overdose / Drug Overdose - epidemiology / Drug Overdose - mortality / Drugs / Dynamics / Epidemics / Fatalities / Fentanyl / Geographical distribution / Heroin / Humans / Methadone / Methamphetamine / Mortality / Mortality Rate / Narcotics / Opioids / Organic chemistry / Overdose / Poisoning / Populations / Prescription drugs / Prevention / Public health / Rural populations / Statistics / Substance use / Substance-Related Disorders - epidemiology / Time Factors / Tracking / Trajectories / United States - epidemiology / Urban areas / Urban environments / Urban populations / Vital statistics