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Interplay between climate and childhood mixing can explain a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan
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Journal Article
Interplay between climate and childhood mixing can explain a sudden shift in RSV seasonality in Japan
2025
Overview
Titrating the importance of endogenous and exogenous drivers for host-pathogen systems remains an important research frontier towards predicting future outbreaks. In Japan, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a major childhood respiratory pathogen, displayed a sudden, dramatic shift in outbreak seasonality (from winter to fall) in 2016. We use mathematical models to identify processes that could lead to this outcome. In line with previous analyses, we identify a robust quadratic relationship between transmission against mean specific humidity and mean temperature, with maximum transmission occurring at low and high humidity as well as low and high temperature. This drives semiannual patterns of seasonal transmission rates that peak in summer and winter. Under this transmission regime, a subtle increase in population-level susceptibility or transmission can cause a sudden shift in seasonality, where the degree of shift is primarily determined by the interval between the two peaks of seasonal transmission rate. We hypothesize that an increase in children attending childcare facilities may have contributed to the increase in the overall RSV transmission through increased contact rates between susceptible and infected hosts. Our analysis underscores the power of studying infectious disease dynamics to titrate the roles of underlying drivers of dynamical transitions in ecology.
The timing of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemic peaks in Japan shifted in 2016-17. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to evaluate the hypothesis that this change in timing may be due to an increase in use of childcare facilities following a policy change
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
Subject
/ Child
/ Children
/ Climate
/ COVID-19
/ Humanities and Social Sciences
/ Humans
/ Humidity
/ Infant
/ Islands
/ Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology
/ Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - transmission
/ Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - virology
/ Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human - physiology
/ Science
/ Seasons
/ Winter
