Journal Article

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

Vanderkelen, Inne, Tan, Zeli, Mercado-Bettín, Daniel, Watanabe, Shohei, Pierson, Don C., Austin, Jay A., Perroud, Marjorie, Stepanenko, Victor, Debolskiy, Andrey, Grant, Luke, Ladwig, Robert, La Fuente, Sofia, Mesman, Jorrit, Jennings, Eleanor, Sharma, Sapna, Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Schladow, S. Geoffrey, DeGasperi, Curtis L., Dokulil, Martin, Marcé, Rafael, Golub, Malgorzata, Shatwell, Tom, Mackay, Eleanor B., Woolway, R. Iestyn, Thiery, Wim, Moore, Tadhg N.

2021

Overview

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely. Stratification has a considerable influence on lake ecology, but there is little understanding of past or future changes in its seasonality. Here, the authors use modelling and empirical data to determine that between 1901–2099, climate change causes stratification to start earlier and end later.

• Publisher: Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group,Nature Portfolio
• Subject: 704/106/694/2786 / 704/286 / Aquatic ecosystems / Climate change / Climate models / Deoxygenation / Ecological effects / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES / Humanities and Social Sciences / Lake sediments / Lakes / limnology / Mineralization / Misalignment / Model testing / multidisciplinary / Northern Hemisphere / Nutrient availability / Nutrient release / Nutrients / open climate campaign / Phenology / Phosphorus / Physical characteristics / Physical properties / projection and prediction / Prolongation / Science / Science (multidisciplinary) / Seasonal variations / Sediments / Stratification