Journal Article

Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM2.5 pollution over India (2015–2050)

Walker, Katherine, Frostad, Joseph, Sadavarte, Pankaj, Sreelekha Chaliyakunnel, Venkataraman, Chandra, Tibrewal, Kushal, Brauer, Michael, Klimont, Zbigniew, Cohen, Aaron, Sajeev, Philip, Martin, Randall V, Ma, Qiao, Millet, Dylan B, Wang, Shuxiao

2018

Overview

India is currently experiencing degraded air quality, and future economic development will lead to challenges for air quality management. Scenarios of sectoral emissions of fine particulate matter and its precursors were developed and evaluated for 2015–2050, under specific pathways of diffusion of cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies. The impacts of individual source sectors on PM2.5 concentrations were assessed through systematic simulations of spatially and temporally resolved particulate matter concentrations, using the GEOS-Chem model, followed by population-weighted aggregation to national and state levels. We find that PM2.5 pollution is a pan-India problem, with a regional character, and is not limited to urban areas or megacities. Under present-day emissions, levels in most states exceeded the national PM2.5 annual standard (40 µg m-3). Sources related to human activities were responsible for the largest proportion of the present-day population exposure to PM2.5 in India. About 60 % of India's mean population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations come from anthropogenic source sectors, while the remainder are from “other” sources, windblown dust and extra-regional sources. Leading contributors are residential biomass combustion, power plant and industrial coal combustion and anthropogenic dust (including coal fly ash, fugitive road dust and waste burning). Transportation, brick production and distributed diesel were other contributors to PM2.5. Future evolution of emissions under regulations set at current levels and promulgated levels caused further deterioration of air quality in 2030 and 2050. Under an ambitious prospective policy scenario, promoting very large shifts away from traditional biomass technologies and coal-based electricity generation, significant reductions in PM2.5 levels are achievable in 2030 and 2050. Effective mitigation of future air pollution in India requires adoption of aggressive prospective regulation, currently not formulated, for a three-pronged switch away from (i) biomass-fuelled traditional technologies, (ii) industrial coal-burning and (iii) open burning of agricultural residue. Future air pollution is dominated by industrial process emissions, reflecting larger expansion in industrial, rather than residential energy demand. However, even under the most active reductions envisioned, the 2050 mean exposure, excluding any impact from windblown mineral dust, is estimated to be nearly 3 times higher than the WHO Air Quality Guideline.

• Publisher: Copernicus GmbH,Copernicus Publications
• Subject: Aggregation / Agricultural management / Air pollution / Air quality / Air quality management / Anthropogenic factors / Atmospheric particulates / Biomass / Biomass burning / Biomass energy / Burning / Carbon / Clean technology / Climate change / Coal / Coal combustion / Combustion / Computer simulation / Consumption / Cooking / Crop residues / Diesel fuels / Dust / Dust storms / Economic development / Economics / Electric power generation / Emissions / Emissions control / Energy demand / Energy efficiency / Fly ash / Human influences / Industrial plant emissions / Industrial pollution / Kerosene / Light / Megacities / Mitigation / Open burning / open climate campaign / Outdoor air quality / Particulate emissions / Particulate matter / Particulate matter emissions / Particulate matter sources / Pollutants / Population / Power plants / Quality management / Residential energy / Simulation / Suspended particulate matter / Transport / Urban areas / Vehicles / VOCs / Volatile organic compounds