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Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
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Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
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Journal Article
Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
2015
Overview
A new analysis shows that global warming could be limited to 1.5 °C by 2100, but that the window for achieving this is small and rapidly closing.
Many impacts projected for a global warming level of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels may exceed the coping capacities of particularly vulnerable countries. Therefore, many countries advocate limiting warming to below 1.5 °C. Here we analyse integrated energy–economy–environment scenarios that keep warming to below 1.5 °C by 2100. We find that in such scenarios, energy-system transformations are in many aspects similar to 2 °C-consistent scenarios, but show a faster scale-up of mitigation action in most sectors, leading to observable differences in emission reductions in 2030 and 2050. The move from a 2 °C- to a 1.5 °C-consistent world will be achieved mainly through additional reductions of CO
2
. This implies an earlier transition to net zero carbon emissions worldwide, to be achieved between 2045 and 2060. Energy efficiency and stringent early reductions are key to retain a possibility for limiting warming to below 1.5 °C by 2100. The window for achieving this goal is small and rapidly closing.
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK,Nature Publishing Group
