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Developing a Quantitative Index for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Internal Control and Testing its Impact on Predicting Stock Crash Risk
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Developing a Quantitative Index for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Internal Control and Testing its Impact on Predicting Stock Crash Risk
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Journal Article
Developing a Quantitative Index for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Internal Control and Testing its Impact on Predicting Stock Crash Risk
2023
Overview
The main objective of the study is to develop a quantitative index for evaluating the effectiveness of internal control and to test its effect on predicting the risk of the stock price crash risk. To achieve this objective, the study was conducted through three steps, Firstly: Developing a quantitative index to evaluate the effectiveness of the internal control of the Egyptian companies, this index is based on the internal control index prepared by Chen et al. (2017a), taking into consideration the revised COSO standards for internal control in 2013, the special circumstances of the Egyptian business environment, the controls of the corporate governance guide updated in 2016, the relevant accounting and auditing standards, the Egyptian Companies Law, and the regulations and rules for listing and delisting in the Egyptian Stock Exchange, in addition to the findings of previous relevant research, Internal control was evaluated by the Analytical Hierarchy Methodology (AHP). The second step was the evaluation of the effectiveness of internal control in light of the proposed index for a sample of (49) companies out of the total listed companies on the Egyptian Stock Exchange within the EGX100 index during the period from 2018 to 2020, with a total of (147) observations. Finally, the proposed index was tested by measuring the effect of the level of effectiveness of internal control on the risk of stock price crash risk, which was measured by two measures DUVOL and NSCKEW. The study concluded that the average effectiveness of internal control for the research sample companies was (57%), ranging between (34%) and (84%). Which implies a great degree of ineffectiveness of internal control in the study sample, the internal control index has a negative impact on the risks of a stock price crash, that is, the more effective the internal control, the less is the possibility of stock price crash risk.
Publisher
جامعة المنوفية - كلية التجارة
Subject
