Sri Lanka Infrastructure Report - Q2 2024

While we expect a return into positive territory for the construction sector, we expect that the construction sector will remain well below pre-crisis levels of activity over the coming quarters and years. Our muted outlook for 2024 is notably based on our expectations that government funding for infrastructure projects will remain weak. Political and economic difficulties will continue to impact project finances and investor interest over the coming quarters, with notably a lack of government funding capacity for infrastructure projects, limited by IMF-imposed spending limitations. In the longer term, we maintain a positive outlook for Sri Lanka given the scale of infrastructure requirements, and supported by strong investment from Mainland China, Japan and India in the transport infrastructure and non-residential building sectors. We forecast annual average industry expansion of 5.8% between 2025 and 2033. Construction industry value is set to reach USD9.0bn by 2033, still below pre-crisis highs of USD12.1bn in 2017, but a partial recuperation from lows of estimated USD3.5bn in 2023.