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The dividend imperative : how dividends can narrow the gap between Main Street and Wall Street
\"Forget the Great Recession. According to fund manager and author Daniel Peris, the real threat to investment returns from stocks is the Great Retreat--a 30-year drop in the dividend payout ratio of the leading corporations in the United States that has rendered the U.S. stock market a grand casino rather than a business investment platform. Peris believes that profit distributions--the dividends of publicly traded corporations--are the greatest indicators of a business's success. Investors and company executives should focus on them.\" -- Publisher
Book
Dividend Smoothing and Predictability
The relative predictability of returns and dividends is a central issue because it forms the paradigm to interpret asset price variation. A little studied question is how dividend smoothing, as a choice of corporate policy, affects predictability. We show that even if dividends are supposed to be predictable without smoothing, dividend smoothing can bury this predictability. Because aggregate dividends are dramatically more smoothed in the postwar period than before, the lack of dividend growth predictability in the postwar period does not necessarily mean that there is no cash flow news in stock price variations; rather, a more plausible interpretation is that dividends are smoothed. Using two alternative measures that are less subject to dividend smoothing-net payout and earnings-we reach the consistent conclusion that cash flow news plays a more important role than discount rate news in price variations in the postwar period.
This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.
Journal Article
The Dividend Puzzle: A Summary Review of Explanations
Academics like to raise what-when-whether-why-how questions on interested topics. Nearly sixty years ago, J. Lintner has developed his model to explain how dividends are determined. Twenty years later, F. Black has asked why some firms pay dividends while others do not, and has written his famous paper “The Dividend Puzzle.” And in-between, we have the dividend irrelevancy theory developed by Miller and Modigliani. After several decades with relentless effort by economists researching on the topic, the puzzle still seems to be here. Lots of theories or hypotheses have been developed to help understand the puzzle and what factors determining the distribution policy of a firm. This paper gives a summary review of those major explanations.
Journal Article
Determinants of dividend policy: evidence from an emerging and developing market
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of dividend policy in an emerging and developing market.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs a quantitative approach using 191 Sri Lankan firms and 1,337 firm-year observations as the sample. The authors apply a Binary Logistic Regression model to uncover the determinants of the propensity to pay dividends, and a Fixed Effect Panel Regression to investigate the determinants of dividend payout.
Findings
The authors identify past dividend decision, earnings, investment opportunities, profitability, free cash flow (FCF), corporate governance, state ownership, firm size and industry influence as the key determinants of propensity to pay dividends. In addition past dividends, investment opportunities, profitability and dividend premium are identified as the determinants of dividend payout. Moreover, there is a feedback between dividend yield and profitability in one lag and between dividend yield and dividend premium in two lags, as short-term relationships. Hence, past dividend decision or payout, profitability and investment opportunities are a common set of determinants with implications for both propensity to pay dividends and its payout. The findings support theories of dividends such as signaling, outcome, catering, life cycle, FCF and pecking order.
Practical implications
The findings are important for investors, managers and future research. Investors should focus on the determinants identified by our study when making investment decisions whereas managers should practice the same when formulating appropriate dividend policies for their firms. Future research should rely on propensity to pay dividends and its payout simultaneously to promote a theoretical consensus on the dividend determinant puzzle.
Originality/value
This is the first study that investigates determinants of propensity to pay dividends and dividend payout along with short-term relationships in a single study.
Journal Article
The snowball effect : using dividend & interest reinvestment to help you retire on time
An income investing book that shows investors how to achieve their retirement goals by investing in blue-chip dividend paying stocks, high-yield bonds, and writing covered calls.
Book
Local Dividend Clienteles
We exploit demographic variation to identify the effect of dividend demand on corporate payout policy. Retail investors tend to hold local stocks and older investors prefer dividend-paying stocks. Together, these tendencies generate geographically varying demand for dividends. Firms headquartered in areas in which seniors constitute a large fraction of the population are more likely to pay dividends, initiate dividends, and have higher dividend yields. We also provide indirect evidence as to why managers may respond to the demand for dividends from local seniors. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion that the investor base affects corporate policy choices.
Journal Article
On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing
We investigate the empirical implications of using various measures of payout yield rather than dividend yield for asset pricing models. We find statistically and economically significant predictability in the time series when payout (dividends plus repurchases) and net payout (dividends plus repurchases minus issuances) yields are used instead of the dividend yield. Similarly, we find that payout (net payout) yields contains information about the cross section of expected stock returns exceeding that of dividend yields, and that the high minus low payout yield portfolio is a priced factor.
Journal Article