استكشف المجموعة الواسعة من العناوين المتاحة.

BackgroundThe lifetime risk of tuberculosis (TB) among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is commonly estimated as 5–10%, but is highly variable between individuals. Validated estimates of personalised risk are needed to facilitate precise targeting of preventative treatment. We aimed to characterise population-level TB risk among people tested for LTBI, and to develop and validate a prognostic model to estimate personalised risk of disease.MethodsWe pooled individual-level data from 18 systematically-identified cohort studies conducted in 20 countries with low TB transmission (annual incidence ≤20/100,000 persons). We estimated population-level incident TB risk using flexible parametric survival models with random effect intercepts by source study. We then developed and validated a flexible parametric survival prediction model for incident TB using the internal-external cross-validation framework, iteratively discarding one contributing dataset from model development and using it for validation.FindingsIn pooled data including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI and 803 TB cases, 5-year cumulative risk of incident TB among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% CI 8.0–29.2) for child contacts, 4.8% (3.0–7.7) for adult contacts, 5.0% (1.6–14.5) for migrants, and 4.8% (1.5–14.3) for immunocompromised groups. We found highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating a personalised approach to risk-stratification. We thus developed a prognostic model that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitisation and clinical covariates. These covariates included age, history of TB exposure (household contact of smear-positive index case, other contact, migration from high TB burden country or no exposure), HIV status and receipt of a solid organ or haematological transplant. Validation of this model achieved a random-effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (0.82–0.93) for incident TB over 2 years. Decision curve analysis revealed that applying the model improved clinical decision-making for targeting LTBI treatment.InterpretationTB incidence rates are heterogeneous among people identified as having LTBI by current standards, even after stratification by indication for screening. We present a freely available and directly data-driven personalised risk predictor for incident TB (www.periskope.org). PERISKOPE-TB will facilitate a programmatic paradigm shift by allowing a fully evidence-based and patient-centred approach to TB risk stratification in settings aiming towards pre-elimination globally.

Abstract As already pointed out by László Somfai in the late 1980s, Béla Bartók's first fully developed five-movement realization of the so-called “bridge” or “palindrome” form was only an afterthought, a further development of a composition originally intended as a cycle of four movements only. As also discussed briefly by Somfai, the evolution of the Allegretto, pizzicato movement itself had distinct stages. A recently surfaced source further clarifies these compositional phases, among others confirms the existence of a 140-measure-long version without a proper conclusion, which, at one point, the composer considered as a definitive version (for which only the ending needed to be composed) and tested with the Waldbauer-Kerpely Quartet. The present article re-examines the compositional process of Bartók's String Quartet no. 4 with an emphasis on its additional fourth movement and discusses the different compositional phases of the Allegretto, pizzicato .

Introduction. The inventory of buildings and property are an accounting document. The largescale description of the lands and property of the spiritual patrimony of 1701–1705 carried out within the framework of the Church Reform of Peter I should be considered as a stage in the control of the state over the material welfare of the Church. Materials. Inventories of bishops houses and monasteries were found in the central and regional archives. A number of documents of the early 18th century were published. Analysis. Different census takers carried out descriptions of the patrimonies of the Vologda Bishops house in five regions of the country, which indicates applying the uyezd by uyezd principle of the description of the regions. The comparison of the texts shows that census books of the patrimonies of the Vologda Bishops house of 1701–1702 were primary in relation to the census of economy (statements) of the Vologda Bishops house in 1702–1703. An inventory of the Bishops Treasury was also made. Results. The comparison of three censuses (patrimony, economy, treasury) gave state documents on the basis of which it was possible to make a complete picture of the economy and property of the Vologda house of St. Sophia. In this regard, a complete secularization of Church possessions actually took place, however it was not fully formalized legally.

It is proved that the Life of Varlaam Khutynsky had a significant educational potential and was aimed at the younger generation with the aim of not only spreading the veneration of the saint, but also instilling an image of a positive hero corresponding to the ideals of that time.

A rich case-study analysis of open source software adoption by public organizations in different countries and settings. Government agencies and public organizations often consider adopting open source software (OSS) for reasons of transparency, cost, citizen access, and greater efficiency in communication and delivering services. Adopting Open Source Software offers five richly detailed real-world case studies of OSS adoption by public organizations. The authors analyze the cases and develop an overarching, conceptual framework to clarify the various enablers and inhibitors of OSS adoption in the public sector. The book provides a useful resource for policymakers, practitioners, and academics. The five cases of OSS adoption include a hospital in Ireland; an IT consortium serving all the municipalities of the province of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy; schools and public offices in the Extremadura region of Spain; the Massachusetts state government's open standards policy in the United States; and the ICT department of the Italian Chamber of Deputies. The book provides a comparative analysis of these cases around the issues of motivation, strategies, technologies, economic and social aspects, and the implications for theory and practice.

Fast-growing cities in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region will define the region's energy future and its greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint. Rapid urbanization and growing standards of living offer a major opportunity to EAP cities to become the global engines of green growth by choosing energy efficient solutions to suit their infrastructure needs and by avoiding locking in energy-intensive infrastructure. The underlying studies in three EAP pilot cities show a clear correlation between investments in energy efficient solutions in all major infrastructure sectors and economic growth by improving energy and GHG emissions efficiency, cities not only help the global environment, but they also support local economic development through productivity gains, reduced pollution, and more efficient use of resources. Thus, the Bank is well positioned to assist municipal governments in building institutions, creating policies, developing long-term green growth plans that will attract financial support and investments from both the private sector and the donor community, and linking efficiency and low carbon programs to international concessional financing and funding, as well as to the private sector investors who will play an important role in achieving green growth objectives. This paper is organized as follows: part one focuses on urban energy use and GHG emissions in EAP; part two presents sustainable urban energy and emissions planning in three pilot cities; and part three gives sustainable urban energy and emissions planning guidebook: a guide for cities in EAP.

The objective is to determine the global population prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) based on population-based studies and assess factors that influence RA prevalence estimates. Four electronic databases were searched (ProQuest Central, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE) for peer-reviewed English publications that report prevalence estimates of RA from 1980 and 2019. We included case–control studies, cross-sectional studies, and prospective or retrospective cohort studies in our search strategy. A random-effect meta-analysis model was used to produce the pooled prevalence estimates. The potential between-study heterogeneity was identified using sensitivity analysis, sub-group and meta-regression analyses. A total of 67 studies were included in the meta-analysis, containing 742,246 RA patients and 211,592,925 healthy controls in the study period. The global RA prevalence estimate was 0.46% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39–0.54; I 2  = 99.9%) with a 95% prediction interval (0.06–1.27). The RA point-prevalence was 0.45% (95% CI 0.38–0.53%) between 1986 and 2014, while the pooled period-prevalence was 0.46% (95% CI 0.36% and 0.57%) from 1955 to 2015. The highest RA pooled prevalence (0.69%; 95% CI 0.47–0.95) was derived from linked data source studies. Based on meta-regression, the factors that explain the studies' heterogeneity of RA prevalence, including geographical location, the risk bias assessment of studies and sample size. The global prevalence of RA between 1980 and 2019 was 460 per 100,000 population, with variations due to geographical location and study methodology. Linked data are the preferred method to estimate RA population prevalence as they provide the best case ascertainment.

This research work is dedicated to the problem of dating of the Byzantine scholar and monk Maximos Planudes’ letters to the general, pinkernes Alexios Philanthropenos and his companion, monk Melchisedek Akropolites. Our goal is to date these letters on the basis of their content and data from other sources and to reconstruct chronological sequence of their writing. The period of time when Alexios Philanthropenos was in office of dux of Thrakision (1293–1295) during which he conducted some military operations against the Turks of beyliks Germiyan and Menteєe has a special place in the history of the Byzantine-Turkish wars in the early Palaiologan era. At this time the Byzantine state made some of its last successful military efforts in this struggle. By studying this theme the present article makes a contribution to research the Byzantine wars against the Turks and the military art and military organization of the empire in the late 13th century. Following the explicit consideration of some disputed items in dating of Maximos Planudes’ letters to the persons mentioned above (42 letters) the author specifies the chronological sequence of their writing and clarifies the stages of the Alexios Philanthropenos’ military activity in Asia Minor. This article also makes a contribution to using of epistolographic data in historical study.

Self-esteem level has been positioned as a key mediating mechanism accounting for the effects of ostracism on behaviors, invoking the notion that individuals seek to verify their self-perceptions by behaving in a way that is consistent with those self-perceptions. However, evidence supporting the relation of ostracism and self-esteem level to behavioral outcomes has been mixed. We argue that such mixed effects arise because individuals may engage in behaviors alternately to verify their self-perceptions (suggesting a relation between self-esteem level and behavioral outcomes) or to selfenhance (suggesting no relation between self-esteem level and behavioral outcomes). Within this framing, the question becomes: When do we self-verify and when do we self-enhance? To that end, we position contingent self-esteem—or the extent to which individuals base their self-worth on outcomes in a particular domain—as a determining factor in whether we self-verify or self-enhance, and present a moderated mediation model to account for varying relations between ostracism and job performance. Our predictions regarding self-verification and self-enhancement motivation are fully supported across two field samples using multi-wave, multi-source study designs. Theoretical and practical implications for self-verification and self-enhancement motivation, as well as negative interpersonal behaviors at work, are discussed.

Current diagnostic criteria for bronchopulmonary dysplasia rely heavily on the level and duration of oxygen therapy, do not reflect contemporary neonatal care, and do not adequately predict childhood morbidity. To determine which of 18 prespecified, revised definitions of bronchopulmonary dysplasia that variably define disease severity according to the level of respiratory support and supplemental oxygen administered at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age best predicts death or serious respiratory morbidity through 18-26 months' corrected age. We assessed infants born at less than 32 weeks of gestation between 2011 and 2015 at 18 centers of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Of 2,677 infants, 683 (26%) died or developed serious respiratory morbidity. The diagnostic criteria that best predicted this outcome defined bronchopulmonary dysplasia according to treatment with the following support at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, regardless of prior or current oxygen therapy: no bronchopulmonary dysplasia, no support (  = 773); grade 1, nasal cannula ≤2 L/min (  = 1,038); grade 2, nasal cannula >2 L/min or noninvasive positive airway pressure (  = 617); and grade 3, invasive mechanical ventilation (  = 249). These criteria correctly predicted death or serious respiratory morbidity in 81% of study infants. Rates of this outcome increased stepwise from 10% among infants without bronchopulmonary dysplasia to 77% among those with grade 3 disease. A similar gradient (33-79%) was observed for death or neurodevelopmental impairment. The definition of bronchopulmonary dysplasia that best predicted early childhood morbidity categorized disease severity according to the mode of respiratory support administered at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, regardless of supplemental oxygen use.