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We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) trace gas measurements to investigate whether water vapor (H2O) injected into the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruption affected the 2022 Antarctic stratospheric vortex. Other MLS‐measured long‐lived species are used to distinguish high HTHH H2O from that descending in the vortex from the upper‐stratospheric H2O peak. HTHH H2O reached high southern latitudes in June–July but was effectively excluded from the vortex by the strong transport barrier at its edge. MLS H2O, nitric acid, chlorine species, and ozone within the 2022 Antarctic polar vortex were near average; the vortex was large, strong, and long‐lived, but not exceptionally so. There is thus no clear evidence of HTHH influence on the 2022 Antarctic vortex or its composition. Substantial impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices are expected in succeeding years since the H2O injected by HTHH has spread globally. Plain Language Summary The 2022 Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai eruption injected vast amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere. Concern arose that this excess water vapor could affect the 2022 Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex and ozone hole: Water vapor plays a crucial role in forming polar stratospheric clouds, which provide surfaces upon which chemical reactions that destroy ozone take place. Enhanced water vapor also affects temperatures, which in turn affect the powerful winds defining the polar vortex boundary. Antarctic polar vortex development began in April–May; by June the intense vortex‐edge winds presented a formidable obstacle to transport. Satellite trace‐gas measurements show that when water vapor from the Hunga Tonga eruption reached the vortex edge in June, it faced an impenetrable barrier and “besieged” the vortex, building up exceptionally strong water vapor gradients across the vortex edge. Water vapor, ozone, and chemicals involved in ozone destruction remained near historical average levels within the vortex through spring 2022. Because excess water vapor spread throughout the south polar regions after vortex breakup, much larger effects on the Antarctic vortex and chemical processing within it are expected in 2023 and beyond, when high water vapor will be entrained into the vortex as it develops. Key Points Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) trace gas data show that the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai H2O plume was effectively excluded from the 2022 Antarctic polar vortex Antarctic lower stratospheric vortex strength, size, and longevity were among the largest on record, but within the range of previous years Antarctic chemical ozone loss in 2022 was unexceptional, with MLS ozone and related trace gases observed to be near average

About 140 years ago, Lord Kelvin derived the equations describing waves that travel along the axis of concentrated vortices such as tornadoes. Although Kelvin’s vortex waves, also known as centrifugal waves, feature prominently in the engineering and fluid dynamics literature, they have not attracted as much attention in the field of atmospheric science. To remedy this circumstance, Kelvin’s elegant derivation is retraced, and slightly generalized, to obtain solutions for a hierarchy of vortex flows that model basic features of tornado-like vortices. This treatment seeks to draw attention to the important work that Lord Kelvin did in this field, and reveal the remarkably rich structure and dynamics of these waves. Kelvin’s solutions help explain the vortex breakdown phenomenon routinely observed in modeled tornadoes, and it is shown that his work is compatible with the widely used criticality condition put forth by Benjamin in 1962. Moreover, it is demonstrated that Kelvin’s treatment, with the slight generalization, includes unstable wave solutions that have been invoked to explain some aspects of the formation of multiple-vortex tornadoes. The analysis of the unstable solutions also forms the basis for determining whether, for example, an axisymmetric or a spiral vortex breakdown occurs. Kelvin’s work thus helps explain some of the visible features of tornado-like vortices.

Improvement of subseasonal to seasonal North Atlantic winter forecasting requires better prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite recent research demonstrating the importance of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling for NAO predictability, the driving mechanisms and implications are not fully understood. This study reveals that the October upper stratosphere is highly relevant to polar vortex development and predictability of winter NAO. We derive a simple index based on the strength of meridional wind in the upper stratospheric surf zone and find that anomalously poleward motion is associated with a significantly stronger polar vortex, which predicts the subsequent winter surface NAO with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.40. Plain Language Summary The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large‐scale atmospheric system that significantly affects the weather and climate in the North Atlantic basin, especially in winter. Accurately forecasting the NAO 1–3 months ahead is challenging. However, on these timescales, more predictable factors like the stratosphere play a crucial role in modulating the NAO. The upper stratosphere plays a significant role in stratospheric dynamics, however it remains poorly understood and its potential to improve winter NAO predictions is largely untapped. Here, we create a simple index to measure the north‐south winds in the upper stratosphere during October and find that a positive index predicts a stronger winter polar vortex, leading to a more positive NAO. This results in warmer, wetter, and stormier conditions in northern Europe and the eastern US, and colder, drier conditions in southern Europe and Canada. Conversely, a negative index indicates a weaker winter polar vortex and an increased likelihood of sudden stratospheric warming events, which can often lead to extreme and prolonged cold conditions at the surface. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring the upper stratosphere in October to improve winter NAO predictions and better understand stratosphere‐troposphere coupling. Key Points The meridional wind in the midlatitude upper stratosphere in October contains significant seasonal predictability for the winter NAO The strength of the meridional wind in this region also predicts changes in the occurrence of midwinter SSWs The winter surface impact of the October upper stratospheric wind occurs partly, but not entirely, via changes to the polar vortex

In many supercell simulations, near-ground vortex formation results from the collapse of an elongated region of enhanced vertical vorticity. In this study, this “roll-up” mechanism is analyzed by investigating the behavior of several 2D elliptic vortex patches. The problem is treated as a nonlinear initial value problem, which is better suited to describe the roll-up mechanism than the more commonly employed normal-mode analysis. Using the Bryan Cloud Model 1, it is demonstrated that the condition for vortex formation is an initial finite-amplitude nonuniformity within the vortex patch. Vortex formation results from differential self-advection due to the flow induced by the patch itself. Background straining motion may either aid or suppress vortex-patch axisymmetrization depending on the initial orientation of the patch relative to the deformation axis. It is also found that in some cases numerical dispersion may lead to nonuniformities that serve as seed for axisymmetrization, thus resulting in unphysical vortex development.

Using automatic rainfall station and ERA5 reanalysis data, the Southwest China vortex (SWCV) processes that induce warm-sector rainstorms in the Sichuan Basin were analyzed, their environmental field and dynamic thermal characteristics were researched through physical diagnosis and dynamic synthesis, and the development mechanism was discussed. The results showed that for the warm-sector rainstorms caused by the SWCV (SWCV-WR), the general circulation backgrounds can could be divided into three types: upper trough-vortex (Type I), plateau shear line (Type II), and short-wave trough (Type III) types. Regarding the aspects of the maintenance of the SWCV, duration of the warm-sector rainstorms, and maximum hourly precipitation intensity, the influence of Type I is the most evident, followed by Types II and III for SWCV-WR. The vertical structure of the SWCV is shallow and inclined to the west with height, but the positive vorticity of Types I and II can reach up to 200 hPa for SWCV-WR. The pseudo-equivalent potential temperature in the vortex area is greater than 354 K, which is accompanied by an upward-energy tongue, and shallow secondary circulation occurs on the eastern side of the SWCV, promoting vortex development. Regarding the thermodynamic characteristics of SWCV, Type I is the strongest, followed by Type III, and Type II is the weakest. The water vapor supply in different types of SWCV-WR is not only closely related to the strength of water vapor transport in the Bay of Bengal, but also to the variations in water vapor transport caused by the influence of different water vapor sources, such as the South China Sea and western Pacific Ocean, during its transportation. For SWCV-WR, the vorticity advection presents an uneven east-west positive and negative distribution. Under the dynamic forcing, the positive vorticity on the east side of SWCV of Types I and II (III) is enhanced (weakened), while that on the west side is weakened (enhanced). Different atmospheric vorticity variations have different significant effects on the three types of SWCV-WR. Under the spatial non-uniform heating, the horizontal non-uniform heating effect on the different types of SWCV-WR has regional differences, while the vertical non-uniform heating effect has the largest effect on the spatial non-uniform heating and a positive heating effect on the three types of SWCV-WR. Therefore, the spatial non-adiabatic heating effect, particularly the vertical non-uniform heating effect, is an important mechanism for the development and evolution of SWCV and SWCV-WR.

The landfall of Hurricane Michael (2018) at category-5 intensity occurred after rapid intensification (RI) spanning much of the storm’s lifetime. Four Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions observed the RI period with tail Doppler radar (TDR). Data from each of the 14 aircraft passes through the storm were quality controlled via a combination of interactive and machine-learning techniques. TDR data from each pass were synthesized using the Spline Analysis at Mesoscale Utilizing Radar and Aircraft Instrumentation (SAMURAI) variational wind retrieval technique to yield three-dimensional kinematic fields of the storm to examine inner-core processes during RI. Vorticity and angular momentum increased and concentrated in the eyewall region. A vorticity budget analysis indicates that the tendencies became more axisymmetric over time. In this study, we focus in particular on how the eyewall vorticity tower builds vertically into the upper levels. Horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical gradient of tangential wind was tilted into the vertical by the eyewall updraft to yield a positive vertical vorticity tendency inward atop the existing vorticity tower, which is further developed locally upward and outward along the sloped eyewall through advection and stretching. Observed maintenance of thermal wind balance from a thermodynamic retrieval shows evidence of a strengthening warm core, which aided in lowering surface pressure and further contributed to the efficient intensification in the latter stages of this RI event.

Typhoon Hagupit (2020), which formed unexpectedly close to land, posed great challenges for forecasters. During its genesis, there was a westward-moving upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) to its north. This study investigated the impact of this UTCL on the genesis process using numerical simulations. In the semi-idealized experiment with this UTCL removed (run-Rcold), pre-Hagupit develops faster, but its track drifts southward in the later stage compared with the control experiment (run-cnl). In the experiment with enhanced UTCL (run-Ecold), the simulated track is similar to that in run-cnl, but pre-Hagupit does not develop into a tropical storm. In run-cnl and run-Ecold, the environmental vertical wind shear is larger than that in run-Rcold in the first 2 days, and the simulated pre-Hagupit experiences two prominent dry-air intrusions in the middle and upper troposphere. At the second intrusion, when the weakened UTCL has moved within 2° of pre-Hagupit, the convection in both experiments decays significantly, and the development of the midlevel vortex begins to lag behind that in run-Rcold, and so does the vertical alignment of the low- and midlevel vortices. The UTCL influences the movement of pre-Hagupit by modifying the large-scale steering flows, especially those above 600 hPa. In run-Rcold, due to the absence of the northward component of wind fields related to the UTCL circulation, pre-Hagupit starts to move west-northwestward instead of northwestward as in run-cnl and run-Ecold.

We study noise generation at the blade tips of propellers designed for future electric aircraft propulsion and, furthermore, analyze the interrelationship between noise mitigation and aerodynamics improvement in terms of propeller geometric designs. Classical propellers with three or six blades and a conceptual propeller with three joined dual-blades are compared to understand the effects of blade tip vortices on the noise generation and aerodynamics. The dual blade of the conceptual propeller is constructed by joining the tips of two sub-blades. These propellers are designed to operate under the same freestream flow conditions and similar electric power consumption. The Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES) is adopted for the flow simulation to identify high-resolution time-dependent noise sources around the blade tips. The acoustic computations use a time-domain method based on the convective Ffowcs Williams–Hawkings (FW-H) equation. The thrust of the 3-blade conceptual propeller is 4% larger than the 3-blade classical propeller and 8% more than the 6-blade one, given that they have similar efficiencies. Blade tip vortices are found emitting broadband noise. Since the classical and conceptual 3-blade propellers have different geometries, especially at the blade tips, they introduce deviations in the vortex development. However, the differences are small regarding the broadband noise generation. As compared to the 6-blade classical propeller, both 3-blade propellers produce much larger noise. The reason is that the increased number of blades leads to the reduced strength of tip vortices. The findings indicate that the noise mitigation through the modification of the blade design and number can be traded-off by the changed aerodynamic performance.

The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model at 0.25° horizontal grid spacing. The years 2005 and 2006, characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum wind speed greater than 60 m s−1and the minimum sea level pressure reaching ∼940 mb, which are never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of ∼50 km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10°C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid to upper troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

This study comprehensively investigates the near-wake development of a model wind turbine operating at a low tip-speed ratio in stalled conditions. In the present paper, part 1, different ways of representing the turbine, which include a full geometrical representation and modeling by means of the actuator line method, and different approaches for the modeling of turbulence are assessed. The simulation results are compared with particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements from the MEXICO and New MEXICO experiments. A highly resolved numerical setup was created and a higher-order numerical scheme was applied to target an optimal resolution of the tip vortex development and the wakes of the blades. Besides the classical unsteady Reynolds-averaged methodology, a recently developed variant of the detached-eddy simulation (DES) was employed, which features robust shielding capabilities of the boundary layers and enhanced transition to a fully developed large-eddy simulation (LES) state. Two actuator line simulations were performed in which the aerodynamic forces were either evaluated by means of tabulated data or imposed from the averaged blade loads of the simulation with full blade geometry. The purpose is to distinguish between the effects of the force projection and the force calculation in the underlying blade-element method on the blade wake development. With the hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)–LES approach and the geometrically fully resolved rotor blade, the details of the flow of the detached blade wake could be resolved. The prediction of the wake deficit also agreed very well with the experimental data. Furthermore, the strength and size of the blade tip vortices were correctly predicted. With the linear unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) model, the wake deficit could also be described correctly, yet the size of the tip vortices was massively overestimated. The actuator line method, when fed with forces from the fully resolved simulation, provides very similar results in terms of wake deficit and tip vortices to its fully resolved parent simulation. However, using uncorrected two-dimensional polars shows significant deviations in the wake topology of the inner blade region. This shows that the application in such flow conditions requires models for rotational augmentation. In part 2 of the study, to be published in another paper, the development and the dynamics of the early tip vortex formation are detailed.