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About 50 y ago, Crow and Kimura [An Introduction to Population Genetics Theory (1970)] and Ohta and Kimura [Genet. Res. 22, 201–204 (1973)] laid the foundations of conservation genetics by predicting the relationship between population size and genetic marker diversity. This work sparked an enormous research effort investigating the importance of population dynamics, in particular small population size, for population mean performance, population viability, and evolutionary potential. In light of a recent perspective [J. C. Teixeira, C. D. Huber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, 10 (2021)] that challenges some fundamental assumptions in conservation genetics, it is timely to summarize what the field has achieved, what robust patterns have emerged, and worthwhile future research directions. We consider theory and methodological breakthroughs that have helped management, and we outline some fundamental and applied challenges for conservation genetics.

The Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) is native to Southeast Asia. Since its first detection in 2008 in Europe and North America, it has been a pest to the fruit production industry as it feeds and oviposits on ripening fruit. Here we aim to model the potential geographical distribution of D. suzukii. We performed an extensive literature review to map the current records. In total 517 documented occurrences (96 native and 421 invasive) were identified, spanning 52 countries. Next, we constructed three species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence records in: (a) the native range (SDMnative), (b) the invasive range in Europe (SDMEurope), and (c) a global model of all records (SDMglobal). The aim of the models was to investigate whether this species will be able to occupy additional ecological niches beyond its native range and expand its current geographic distribution both globally and in Europe. The SDMs were generated using Maximum Entropy algorithms (Maxent) based on present occurrence records and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim). Predictions of habitat suitability vary greatly depending on origins of occurrence records. According to all models, precipitation and low temperatures were key limiting factors for the distribution of D. suzukii, which suggests that this species requires a humid environment with mild winters in order to establish a permanent population in its invasive range. Several regions in the invasive range, not presently occupied by this species, were predicted highly suitable, especially in northern Europe, suggesting that D. suzukii does not yet occupy its full fundamental niche. Synthesis and applications. Based on these models of potential geographic distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii), we show a shift in the ecological niche in Drosophila suzukii populations, emphasizing the importance of using presence, and local environmental data. Further investigation regarding new occurrences is recommended to secure optimal pest management. Despite a continuing expansion, many countries still lack proper surveillance schemes, and we urge policy makers to initiate appropriate management programmes. Based on these models of potential geographic distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii), we show a shift in the ecological niche in Drosophila suzukii populations, emphasizing the importance of using presence, and local environmental data. Further investigation regarding new occurrences is recommended to secure optimal pest management. Despite a continuing expansion, many countries still lack proper surveillance schemes, and we urge policy makers to initiate appropriate management programmes.

Temperature affects the rate of all biochemical processes in ectotherms 1 , 2 and is therefore critical for determining their current and future distribution under global climate change 3 – 5 . Here we show that the rate of biological processes maintaining growth, homeostasis and ageing in the permissive temperature range increases by 7% per degree Celsius (median activation energy E a  = 0.48 eV from 1,351 rates across 314 species). By contrast, the processes underlying heat failure rate within the stressful temperature range are extremely temperature sensitive, such that heat failure increases by more than 100% per degree Celsius across a broad range of taxa (median E a  = 6.13 eV from 123 rates across 112 species). The extreme thermal sensitivity of heat failure rates implies that the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves can exacerbate heat mortality for many ectothermic species with severe and disproportionate consequences. Combining the extreme thermal sensitivities with projected increases in maximum temperatures globally 6 , we predict that moderate warming scenarios can increase heat failure rates by 774% (terrestrial) and 180% (aquatic) by 2100. This finding suggests that we are likely to underestimate the potential impact of even a modest global warming scenario. Within the stressful temperature range, heat failure rate increases by more than 100% per degree Celsius across a broad range of ectotherm taxa.

It is becoming increasingly clear that microbial symbionts influence key aspects of their host’s fitness, and vice versa . This may fundamentally change our thinking about how microbes and hosts interact in influencing fitness and adaptation to changing environments. Here we explore how reductions in population size commonly experienced by threatened species influence microbiome diversity. Consequences of such reductions are normally interpreted in terms of a loss of genetic variation, increased inbreeding and associated inbreeding depression. However, fitness effects of population bottlenecks might also be mediated through microbiome diversity, such as through loss of functionally important microbes. Here we utilise 50 Drosophila melanogaster lines with different histories of population bottlenecks to explore these questions. The lines were phenotyped for egg-to-adult viability and their genomes sequenced to estimate genetic variation. The bacterial 16S rRNA gene was amplified in these lines to investigate microbial diversity. We found that 1) host population bottlenecks constrained microbiome richness and diversity, 2) core microbiomes of hosts with low genetic variation were constituted from subsets of microbiomes found in flies with higher genetic variation, 3) both microbiome diversity and host genetic variation contributed to host population fitness, 4) connectivity and robustness of bacterial networks was low in the inbred lines regardless of host genetic variation, 5) reduced microbial diversity was associated with weaker evolutionary responses of hosts in stressful environments, and 6) these effects were unrelated to Wolbachia density. These findings suggest that population bottlenecks reduce hologenomic variation (combined host and microbial genetic variation). Thus, while the current biodiversity crisis focuses on population sizes and genetic variation of eukaryotes, an additional focal point should be the microbial diversity carried by the eukaryotes, which in turn may influence host fitness and adaptability with consequences for the persistence of populations.

Temperature tolerance is critical for defining the fundamental niche of ectotherms and researchers classically use either static (exposure to a constant temperature) or dynamic (ramping temperature) assays to assess tolerance. The use of different methods complicates comparison between studies and here we present a mathematical model (and R -scripts) to reconcile thermal tolerance measures obtained from static and dynamic assays. Our model uses input data from several static or dynamic experiments and is based on the well-supported assumption that thermal injury accumulation rate increases exponentially with temperature (known as a thermal death time curve). The model also assumes thermal stress at different temperatures to be additive and using experiments with Drosophila melanogaster , we validate these central assumptions by demonstrating that heat injury attained at different heat stress intensities and durations is additive. In a separate experiment we demonstrate that our model can accurately describe injury accumulation during fluctuating temperature stress and further we validate the model by successfully converting literature data of ectotherm heat tolerance (both static and dynamic assays) to a single, comparable metric (the temperature tolerated for 1 h). The model presented here has many promising applications for the analysis of ectotherm thermal tolerance and we also discuss potential pitfalls that should be considered and avoided using this model.

The relationship between population size, inbreeding, loss of genetic variation and evolutionary potential of fitness traits is still unresolved, and large-scale empirical studies testing theoretical expectations are surprisingly scarce. Here we present a highly replicated experimental evolution setup with 120 lines of Drosophila melanogaster having experienced inbreeding caused by low population size for a variable number of generations. Genetic variation in inbred lines and in outbred control lines was assessed by genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) of pooled samples consisting of 15 males per line. All lines were reared on a novel stressful medium for 10 generations during which body mass, productivity, and extinctions were scored in each generation. In addition, we investigated egg-to-adult viability in the benign and the stressful environments before and after rearing at the stressful conditions for 10 generations. We found strong positive correlations between levels of genetic variation and evolutionary response in all investigated traits, and showed that genomic variation was more informative in predicting evolutionary responses than population history reflected by expected inbreeding levels. We also found that lines with lower genetic diversity were at greater risk of extinction. For viability, the results suggested a trade-off in the costs of adapting to the stressful environments when tested in a benign environment. This work presents convincing support for long-standing evolutionary theory, and it provides novel insights into the association between genetic variation and evolutionary capacity in a gradient of diversity rather than dichotomous inbred/outbred groups.

Understanding how environmental factors affect the thermal tolerance of species is crucial for predicting the impact of thermal stress on species abundance and distribution. To date, species' responses to thermal stress are typically assessed on laboratory-reared individuals and using coarse, low-resolution, climate data that may not reflect microhabitat dynamics at a relevant scale. Here, we examine the daily temporal variation in heat tolerance in a range of species in their natural environments across temperate and tropical Australia. Individuals were collected in their habitats throughout the day and tested for heat tolerance immediately thereafter, while local microclimates were recorded at the collection sites. We found high levels of plasticity in heat tolerance across all the tested species. Both short- and long-termvariability of temperature and humidity affected plastic adjustments of heat tolerance within and across days, but with species differences. Our results reveal that plastic changes in heat tolerance occur rapidly at a daily scale and that environmental factors on a relatively short timescale are important drivers of the observed variation in thermal tolerance. Ignoring such fine-scale physiological processes in distribution models might obscure conclusions about species' range shifts with global climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part 1)'.

Most organisms experience variable and sometimes suboptimal environments in their lifetime. While stressful environmental conditions are normally viewed as a strong selective force, they can also impact directly on the genetic basis of traits such as through environment-dependent gene action. Here, we used the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel to investigate the impact of developmental temperature on variance components and evolutionary potential of cold tolerance. We reared 166 lines at five temperatures and assessed cold tolerance of adult male flies from each line and environment. We show (1) that the expression of genetic variation for cold tolerance is highly dependent on developmental temperature, (2) that the genetic correlation of cold tolerance between environments decreases as developmental temperatures become more distinct, (3) that the correlation between cold tolerance at individual developmental temperatures and plasticity for cold tolerance differs across developmental temperatures, and even switches sign across the thermal developmental gradient, and (4) that evolvability decrease with increasing developmental temperatures. Our results show that the quantitative genetic basis of low temperature tolerance is environment specific. This conclusion is important for the understanding of evolution in variable thermal environments and for designing experiments aimed at pinpointing candidate genes and performing functional analyses of thermal resistance.

Trait variation is normally separated into genetic and environmental components, yet genetic factors also control the expression of environmental variation, encompassing plasticity across environmental gradients and within-environment responses. We defined four components of environmental variation: plasticity across environments, variability in plasticity, variation within environments, and differences in within-environment variation across environments. We assessed these components for cold tolerance across five rearing temperatures using the Drosophila melanogaster Genetic Reference Panel (DGRP). The four components were found to be heritable, and genetically correlated to different extents. By whole genome single marker regression, we detected multiple candidate genes controlling the four components and showed limited overlap in genes affecting them. Using the binary UAS-GAL4 system, we functionally validated the effects of a subset of candidate genes affecting each of the four components of environmental variation and also confirmed the genetic and phenotypic correlations obtained from the DGRP in distinct genetic backgrounds. We delineate selection targets associated with environmental variation and the constraints acting upon them, providing a framework for evolutionary and applied studies on environmental sensitivity. Based on our results we suggest that the traditional quantitative genetic view of environmental variation and genotype-by-environment interactions needs revisiting.

Multiple environmental factors acting in concert can interact and strongly influence population fitness and ecosystem composition. Studies investigating interactions usually involve only two environmental factors; most frequently a chemical and another abiotic factor such as a stressful temperature. Here we investigate the effects of three environmental factors: temperature, an insecticide (dimethoate) and interspecific co-occurrence. We expose two naturally co-occurring species of Drosophila (D. hydei and D. melanogaster ) to the different environments during development and examine the consequences on several performance measures. Results are highly species and trait specific with evidence of two- and three-way interactions in approximately 30% of all cases, suggesting that additive effects of combined environmental factors are most common, and that interactions are not universal. To provide more informative descriptions of complex interactions we implemented re-conceptualised definitions of synergism and antagonism. We found approximately equal proportions of synergistic and antagonistic interactions in both species, however the effects of interactions on performance differed between the two. Furthermore, we found negative impacts on performance in only 60% of interactions, thus our study also reveals a high proportion of cases with positive effects of interactions.