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Objectives Simple calculations seem to show that larger studies should have higher statistical power, but empirical meta-analyses of published work in criminology have found zero or weak correlations between sample size and estimated statistical power. This is “Weisburd’s paradox” and has been attributed by Weisburd et al. (in Crime Justice 17:337–379, 1993 ) to a difficulty in maintaining quality control as studies get larger, and attributed by Nelson et al. (in J Exp Criminol 11:141–163, 2015 ) to a negative correlation between sample sizes and the underlying sizes of the effects being measured. We argue against the necessity of both these explanations, instead suggesting that the apparent Weisburd paradox might be explainable as an artifact of systematic overestimation inherent in post-hoc power calculations, a bias that is large with small N . Methods We discuss Weisburd’s paradox in light of the concepts of type S and type M errors, and re-examine the publications used in previous studies of the so-called paradox. Results We suggest that the apparent Weisburd paradox might be explainable as an artifact of systematic overestimation inherent in post-hoc power calculations, a bias that is large with small N . Conclusions Speaking more generally, we recommend abandoning the use of statistical power as a measure of the strength of a study, because implicit in the definition of power is the bad idea of statistical significance as a research goal.

Tor is widely used for staying anonymous online and accessing onion websites; unfortunately, Tor is popular for distributing and viewing illicit child sexual abuse material (CSAM). From 2018 to 2023, we analyse 176,683 onion domains and find that one-fifth share CSAM. We find that CSAM is easily available using 21 out of the 26 most-used Tor search engines. We analyse 110,133,715 search sessions from the Ahmia.fi search engine and discover that 11.1% seek CSAM. When searching CSAM by age, 40.5% search for 11-year-olds and younger; 11.0% for 12-year-olds; 8.2% for 13-year-olds; 11.6% for 14-year-olds; 10.9% for 15-year-olds; and 12.7% for 16-year-olds. We demonstrate accurate filtering for search engines, introduce intervention, show a questionnaire for CSAM users, and analyse 11,470 responses. 65.3% of CSAM users first saw the material when they were children themselves, and half of the respondents first saw the material accidentally, demonstrating the availability of CSAM. 48.1% want to stop using CSAM. Some seek help through Tor, and self-help websites are popular. Our survey finds commonalities between CSAM use and addiction. Help-seeking correlates with increasing viewing duration and frequency, depression, anxiety, self-harming thoughts, guilt, and shame. Yet, 73.9% of help seekers have not been able to receive it.

Although prison inmates are known to be disadvantaged in multiple ways, we know less about changes in the socioeconomic backgrounds of prisoners over time. We examine these changes in a period characterized by a decreasing prisoner rate, the introduction of community service, and strong macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze changes in the socioeconomic backgrounds of individuals imprisoned between 1988-2019. We provide comparisons with community sanctions and the non-convicted general population, and examine the same developments in subgroups of the imprisoned. Using total population register data, we examine annual changes across different groups in the measures of employment, receipt of social assistance, income, and education. Our results show that the employment rates of individuals sent to prison declined heavily during the economic depression of the 1990s and have sunk to much lower levels since. This development is partly explained by some short-term prisoners being diverted to community service. The results are largely similar to other measures of socioeconomic status and different subgroups; the declining educational level of recidivist offenders especially stands out. The Finnish prison population has grown increasingly detached from the labor market and generally more disadvantaged over time.

Introduction Drug courts are criminal justice programs to divert people with substance use disorders from incarceration into treatment. Drug courts have become increasingly popular in the US and other countries. However, their effectiveness in reducing important public health outcomes such as recidivism and substance-related health harms remains ambiguous and contested. We used nationwide register data from Sweden to evaluate the effectiveness of contract treatment sanction, the Swedish version of drug court, in reducing substance misuse, adverse somatic and mental health outcomes, and recidivism. Methods In this prospective cohort study, two quasi-experimental designs were used: difference-in-differences and the within-individual design. In the latter, we compared the risk of outcomes during time on contract treatment to, 1) parole after imprisonment and, 2) probation. Results The cohort included 11,893 individuals (13% women) who underwent contract treatment. Contract treatment was associated with a reduction of 7 percentage points (95% CI: -.088, -.055) in substance misuse, 5 percentage points (-.064, -.034) in adverse mental health events, 9 percentage points (-.113, -.076) in adverse somatic health events, and 3 fewer charges (-3.16, -2.85) for crime in difference-in-differences analyses. Within-individual associations suggested that the same individual had longer times-to-event for all outcomes during contract treatment than on parole or on probation. Conclusions Contract treatment is an effective intervention from both public health and criminal justice perspective. Our findings suggest that it is a superior alternative to incarceration in its target group. Further, we find that an implementation approach that is less punitive and more inclusive than what is typical in the US can be successful.

Background Individuals in higher socioeconomic positions tend to utilise more mental health care, especially specialist services, than those in lower positions. Whether these disparities in treatment exist among adolescents and young adults who self-harm is currently unknown. Methods The study is based on Finnish administrative register data on all individuals born 1986–1994. Adolescents and young adults with an episode of self-harm treated in specialised healthcare at ages 16–21 in 2002–2015 (n=4280, 64% female) were identified and followed 2 years before and after the episode. Probabilities of specialised psychiatric inpatient admissions and outpatient visits and purchases of psychotropic medication at different time points relative to self-harm were estimated using generalised estimation equations, multinomial models and cumulative averages. Socioeconomic differences were assessed based on parental education, controlling for income. Results An educational gradient in specialised treatment and prescription medication was observed, with the highest probabilities of treatment among the adolescents and young adults with the highest educated parents and lowest probabilities among those whose parents had basic education. These differences emerged mostly after self-harm. The probability to not receive any treatment, either in specialised healthcare or psychotropic medication, was highest among youth whose parents had a basic level of education (before self-harm 0.39, 95% CI 0.34–0.43, and after 0.29, 95% CI 0.25–0.33 after) and lowest among youth with higher tertiary educated parents (before self-harm: 0.22, 95% CI 0.18–0.26, and after 0.18, 95% CI 0.14–0.22). The largest differences were observed in inpatient care. Conclusions The results suggest that specialised psychiatric care and psychotropic medication use are common among youth who self-harm, but a considerable proportion have no prior or subsequent specialised treatment. The children of parents with lower levels of education are likely to benefit from additional support in initiating and adhering to treatment after an episode of self-harm. Further research on the mechanisms underlying the educational gradient in psychiatric treatment is needed.

Recent research has questioned the causal effect of employment on desistance from crime. The aim of the current study was to examine the post-release employment trajectories of Finnish inmates convicted to prison in 2004-05 (n = 1,998) who are desisting from crime, using varying criteria. While a majority of the inmates received some salary from work during the four-year follow-up, the results show that only one tenth of them were able to sustain a continued streak of employment. Instead, the proportion outside of the labour force grew with time from release. The results suggest that employment plays a limited role in the desistance processes in the current Finnish context. The potential causes for this finding are discussed, and avenues for future research are proposed.

While low socio-economic status (SES) is generally accepted as a risk factor for violence, some have argued that intimate partner violence (IPV) is a 'classless' crime. We examine the effects of SES and prior criminal record on different types of police-reported violence committed in 2005-07 by Finnish men using a register-based general population sample that offers exceptionally good population coverage. While IPV against women appears somewhat less determined by offender's low SES than other types of violent crime, we demonstrate considerable SES effects for all examined types of violence. Offenders in male-to-male violence in private settings appear the most marginalized.We conclude that social disadvantage contributes to male violence against both men and women.

Sibling resemblance in crime may be due to genetic relatedness, shared environment, and/or the interpersonal influence of siblings on each other. This latter process can be understood as a type of 'peer effect' in that it is based on social learning between individuals occupying the same status in the social system (family). Building on prior research, we hypothesized that sibling pairs that resemble peer relationships the most, i.e., same-sex siblings close in age, exhibit the most sibling resemblance in crime. Drawing on administrative microdata covering Finnish children born in 1985-97, we examined 213 911 sibling pairs, observing the recorded criminality of each sibling between ages 11 and 20. We estimated multivariate regression models controlling for individual and family characteristics, and employed fixed-effects models to analyze the temporal co-occurrence of sibling delinquency. Among younger siblings with a criminal older sibling, the adjusted prevalence estimates of criminal offending decreased from 32 to 25% as the age differences increased from less than 13 months to 25-28 months. The prevalence leveled off at 23% when age difference reached 37-40 months or more. These effects were statistically significant only among same-sex sibling pairs ( < 0.001), with clear evidence of contemporaneous offending among siblings with minimal age difference. Same-sex siblings very close in age stand out as having the highest sibling resemblance in crime. This finding suggests that a meaningful share of sibling similarity in criminal offending is due to a process akin to peer influence, typically flowing from the older to the younger sibling.

Previous research indicates worse outcomes for children and young people in out-of-home care compared to their peers. To improve the quality of current residential care, research is needed to deepen our understanding of the key factors and mechanisms that explain the effectiveness of residential care on child level. The aim of this study is to evaluate the short-term (i.e., during care) effectiveness of residential care as a child welfare intervention by different service providers. The study includes two pre-specified primary child-level outcomes 1) psychosocial functioning, assessed through the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaires (SDQ) including both total difficulties scores and subscales and 2) attainment of individual goals of the child. Secondary outcome measures include improved experiences of emotional warmth and safety (CEWSS-A). Further associations between key characteristics of the residential care unit, the child and outcomes are assessed. The data consist of longitudinal survey data collected from 12-17-year-old children and staff in a total sample of public and private residential care units offering specialized care in three wellbeing services countries in Finland. The baseline (T0) data is collected between 1.4.2025-31.8.2026 with a follow up of 6 and 12 months for each child (T1 and T2). The data is primarily analysed with linear mixed models. Findings explore the short-term effectiveness and change mechanisms of residential care as \"service as usual\" to understand how it should be organised and produced to improve its ability to meet aims during care. The study design embraces the complexity and changeability on different levels of the residential care setting.

BackgroundEarlier studies, based on data collected among juvenile court clients or prisoners, suggest that there is an association between trauma and adolescent-onset offending. However, there is a lack of large-scale data on juvenile violence and clinical mental health observations with unselected participants, and a risk-factor-oriented research combining multiple variables affecting violent behaviour.MethodsWe analyse the effect of trauma on violent offending using longitudinal register-linkage population data. The study is based on administrative data on all Finnish children born between 1986 and 2000, linked with their biological and adoptive parents (N=913 675). The data include annually updated demographic and socioeconomic information from Statistics Finland, hospital discharge and specialised outpatient service records as well as the data from all suspected criminal offences known to the police (1996–2017). We measured trauma diagnosis at age 12–14 and followed participants for subsequent violent criminality from age 15 to 17.ResultsThe population average estimates, taking into account observed substance abuse and other mental health diagnoses, shows that trauma-related disorders (adjustment problems, post-traumatic stress disorder and acute stress disorder) were associated with violent offending. The same was true in sibling fixed effect models, which take into account genetic and environmental confounding shared by siblings.DiscussionThese results suggest that severe stress related to traumatic or strong negative life changes in adolescence is a risk factor for violent behaviour.