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12
result(s) for
"Abiyu, Asaminew"
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Innovative Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia
2018
This study investigated the annual and seasonal rainfall variability at five selected stations of Amhara Regional State, by using the innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator test. The result showed that the trend of annual rainfall was increasing in Gondar (Z = 1.69), Motta (Z = 0.93), and Bahir Dar (Z = 0.07) stations. However, the trends in Dangla (Z = −0.37) and Adet (Z = −0.32) stations showed a decreasing trend. As far as monthly and seasonal variability of rainfall are concerned, all the stations exhibited sensitivity of change. The trend of rainfall in May, June, July, August, and September was increasing. However, the trend on the rest of other months showed a decreasing trend. The increase in rainfall during Kiremt season, along with the decrease in number of rainy days, leads to an increase of extreme rainfall events over the region during 1980–2016. The consistency in rainfall trends over the study region confirms the robustness of the change in trends. Innovative trend analysis method is very crucial method for detecting the trends in rainfall time series data due to its potential to present the results in graphical format as well. The findings of this paper could help researchers to understand the annual and seasonal variability of rainfall over the study region and become a foundation for further studies.
Journal Article
Water Resources Allocation Systems under Irrigation Expansion and Climate Change Scenario in Awash River Basin of Ethiopia
2019
Rational allocation of water resources is very essential to cope with water scarcity. The optimal allocation of limited water resources is required for various purposes to achieve sustainable development. The Awash River Basin is currently faced with a scarcity of water due to increasing demands, urbanization, irrigation expansion, and variability of climates. The excessive abstraction of water resources in the basin without proper assessing of the available water resources contributed to water scarcity. This paper aimed to develop a water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model to allocate the water supplies to demanding sectors based on an economic parameter to maximize the economic benefits. The water demands, water shortages, and supply alternatives were analyzed under different scenarios. Three scenarios were developed, namely reference (1981–2016), medium-term development (2017–2030), and long-term development (2031–2050) future scenarios with the baseline period (1980). The results of this study showed that the total quantity of water needed to meet the irrigation demands of all the stations was 306.96 MCM from 1980 to 2016. Seasonally, March, April, May, and June require the maximum irrigation water demand. However, July, August, and September require minimum demand for water because of the rainy season. The seasonal unmet demand is observed in all months, which ranged from 6 × 106 m3 to 35.9 × 106 m3 in August and May respectively. The trend of streamflow in Melka Kuntre was a statistically significant increasing trend after 2008 (Z = 5.33) whereas the trends in other gauge stations showed a relatively decreasing trend. The results also showed that future water consumption would greatly increase in the Awash River Basin. The prevention of future water shortages requires the implementation of water-saving measures and the use of new water supply technologies. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for water resources managers and policy and decision makers.
Journal Article
Climate Change, Land Use, and Vegetation Evolution in the Upper Huai River Basin
by
Yan, Denghua
,
Mekonen, Temesgen
,
Abate, Amanuel
in
Air temperature
,
Aquatic resources
,
Biodiversity
2023
Land-use/land-cover change and climate change have changed the spatial–temporal distribution of water resources. The Huai River Basin shows the spatial and temporal changes of climate from 1960 to 2016 and land-use/land-cover changes from 1995 to 2014. Thus, this study aims to investigate climate change, land use, and vegetation evolution in the Upper Huai River Basin. The Mann–Kendall test (MK), Innovative Trend Analysis Method (ITAM), and Sen’s slope estimator test were used to detect climate change trends. The land-use/land-cover change was also examined using a transformation matrix and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results of this study revealed that precipitation has shown a slightly decreasing trend during the past 56 years. However, the air temperature has increased by 1.2 °C. The artificial and natural vegetation and wetland were decreased by 12,097 km2, 3207 km2, and 641 km2, respectively. On the other hand, resident construction land and artificial water bodies increased by 2277 km2 and 3691 km2, respectively. This indicates that the land cover has significantly changed during the past 30 years. The findings of this study will have implications for predicting the water resources safety and eco-environment of The Huai River Basin. The spatial distribution showed an uneven change in the Huai River Basin. Together, we suggested that the variability of water resources availability in the Huai River Basin was mainly attributed to climate variability, while land use change plays a key role in the sub-basins, which experienced dramatic changes in land use.
Journal Article
Trend Analysis of Climatic and Hydrological Variables in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
by
Yan, Denghua
,
Yan, Dengming
,
Song, Xinshan
in
Agricultural production
,
atmospheric precipitation
,
Basins
2018
The Awash river basin has been the most extensively developed and used river basin in Ethiopia since modern agriculture was introduced. This paper investigated the annual precipitation, temperature, and river discharge variability using the innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and Sen’s slope estimator test. The results showed that the trend of annual precipitation was significantly increasing in Fitche (Z = 0.82) and Gewane (Z = 0.80), whereas the trend in Bui (Z = 69) was slightly decreasing and the trend in Sekoru (Z = 0.45) was sharply decreasing. As far as temperature trends were concerned, a statistically significant increasing trend was observed in Fitche (Z = 3.77), Bui (Z = 4.84), and Gewane (Z = 5.59). However, the trend in Sekoru (Z = 1.37) was decreasing with statistical significance. The discharge in the study basin showed a decreasing trend during the study period. Generally, the increasing and decreasing levels of precipitation, temperature, and discharge across the stations in this study indicate the change in trends. The results of this study could help researchers, policymakers, and water resources managers to understand the variability of precipitation, temperature, and river discharge over the study basin.
Journal Article
Observed Trends of Climate and River Discharge in Mongolia’s Selenga Sub-Basin of the Lake Baikal Basin
by
Yan, Denghua
,
Yiran, Xu
,
Chonokhuu, Sonomdagva
in
air temperature
,
Analysis
,
atmospheric precipitation
2018
Mongolia’s Selenga sub-basin of the Lake Baikal basin is spatially extensive, with pronounced environmental gradients driven primarily by precipitation and air temperature on broad scales. Therefore, it is an ideal region to examine the dynamics of the climate and the hydrological system. This study investigated the annual precipitation, air temperature, and river discharge variability at five selected stations of the sub-basin by using Mann-Kendall (MK), Innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), and Sen’s slope estimator test. The result showed that the trend of annual precipitation was slightly increasing in Ulaanbaatar (Z = 0.71), Erdenet (Z = 0.13), and Tsetserleg (Z = 0.26) stations. Whereas Murun (Z = 2.45) and Sukhbaatar (Z = 1.06) stations showed a significant increasing trend. And also, the trend of annual air temperature in Ulaanbaatar (Z = 5.88), Erdenet (Z = 3.87), Tsetserleg (Z = 4.38), Murun (Z = 4.77), and Sukhbaatar (Z = 2.85) was sharply increased. The average air temperature has significantly increased by 1.4 °C in the past 38 years. This is very high in the semi-arid zone of central Asia. The river discharge showed a significantly decreasing trend during the study period years. It has been apparent since 1995. The findings of this paper could help researchers to understand the annual variability of precipitation, air temperature, and river discharge over the study region and, therefore, become a foundation for further studies.
Journal Article
Changes in Water Surface Area of the Lake in the Steppe Region of Mongolia: A Case Study of Ugii Nuur Lake, Central Mongolia
by
Dambaravjaa, Oyunbaatar
,
Yan, Denghua
,
Weng, Baisha
in
air temperature
,
Analysis
,
anthropogenic activities
2020
The Ugii Nuur Lake is not only one of the small hydrologically closed lakes located in the Orkhon River Basin in Central Mongolia but also the most vulnerable area for global climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impacts of recent global climate change on the water surface area. The data we analyzed were various measured hydro-meteorological variables of the lake basin and the lake surface area, which was estimated from Landsat series satellite data from 1986 to 2018. The methods we used were Mann-Kendall (MK), Innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), Sen’s slope estimator test, correlation, and regression analysis. The variation of lake water surface area has a strong positive correlation with the change of the lake water level (r = 0.95). The Mann-Kendall trend analysis has indicated that under a significant decrease in total annual precipitation ( Z = −0.902) and inflow river discharge ( Z = −5.392) and a considerable increase in total annual evaporation ( Z = 4.385) and annual average air temperature ( Z = 4.595), the surface area of the Ugii Nuur Lake has decreased sharply ( Z = −6.021). The total annual evaporation (r = −0.64) and inflow river discharge (r = 0.67) were the essential hydro-meteorological factors affecting the surface area of the Ugii Nuur Lake. The lake surface area decreased by 13.5% in 2018 compared with 1986. In the near future, it is vital to conduct scientific studies considering the volume of lake water, groundwater, and the anthropogenic impact.
Journal Article
Trends of Hydroclimate Variables in the Upper Huai River Basin: Implications of Managing Water Resource for Climate Change Mitigation
by
Yan, Denghua
,
Song, Xinshan
,
Abiyu, Asaminew
in
Agricultural production
,
Air temperature
,
Annual precipitation
2020
The present study attempted to investigate the trends of mean annual temperature, precipitation, and streamflow changes to determine their relationships in the upper Huai river basin. The Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope test estimator, and innovative trend detection (ф) (ITA) methods were used to detect the trends. According to the findings, average annual precipitation shows a descending trend (ф = −0.17) in most stations. An increasing trend was found only in Fuyang station (ф = 1.02). In all stations, the trends of mean annual temperature (ф = 0.36) were abruptly increased. During the past 57 years, the mean air temperature has considerably increased by 12°C/10a. The river streamflow showed a dramatic declining trend in all stations for the duration of the study period (1960–2016) (ф = −4.29). The climate variability in the study region affects the quantity of the streamflow. The river streamflow exhibits decreasing trends from 1965 onwards. The main possible reason for the declining stream flow in the study area is the declining amount of precipitation on some specific months due to the occurrence of climate change. The outcomes of this study could create awareness for the policymakers and members of the scientific community, informing them about the hydroclimatic evolutions across the study basin, and become an inordinate resource for advanced scientific research.
Journal Article
Impacts of Recent Climate Trends and Human Activity on the Land Cover Change of the Abbay River Basin in Ethiopia
by
Yan, Denghua
,
Song, Xinshan
,
Kassa, Mulualem T.
in
Accuracy
,
Agriculture
,
Annual precipitation
2019
The Abbay River Basin, which originates in Ethiopia, is a major tributary and main source of the Nile River Basin. Land cover and vegetation in the Abbay River Basin is highly susceptible to climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the trends of climate change for a period of thirty-six years (1980–2016) within selected stations of the basin by using the innovative trend analysis method, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimator test to investigate the mean annual precipitation and temperature variables. Changes in land cover and vegetation in the Abbay River Basin were studied for a period of thirteen years (2001–2013) by using remote sensing, GIS analysis, land cover classification, and vegetation detection methods to assess the land cover and vegetation in the basin. In addition, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Transformation Matrix were employed to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover and vegetation impacted by changes in climate. The result reflects that the trend of average annual temperature was remarkably increased (Φ = 0.12, Z = 0.75) in the 36-year period, and the temperature was increased by 0.5°C, although precipitation had slightly decreased during the same period. In the thirteen years’ period, forest land and water resource decreased by 3429.62 km2 and 81.45 km2, respectively. In contrast, an increment was observed in grassland (2779.33 km2), cultivated land (535.34 km2), bare land (43.08 km2), urban land (0.65 km2), and wetland (152.66 km2) in the same period. In the study, it was also observed a decrease of an NDVI value by 0.1 was observed in 2013 in the southern part of the basin. The findings of the present study illustrate a significant change in eco-hydrological conditions in the ARB with an adverse impact on the environment. Hydroclimatic changes caused the increase in temperature and decreasing trend in precipitation which significantly impacted the land cover and vegetation in the basin. The changes in land cover were mostly caused by global and local climate influence which mainly affects the hydroclimate and eco-hydrology systems of the basin. The result is consistent with that of the previous studies conducted elsewhere. The findings of this paper could help researchers to understand the eco-hydrological condition of the study basin and become a foundation for further studies.
Journal Article
Observed trends of climate and land cover changes in Lake Baikal basin
by
Altanbold Enkhbold
,
Chonokhuu, Sonomdagva
,
Davaasuren, Davaadorj
in
Adaptability
,
Air temperature
,
Climate change
2018
Land cover and vegetation in Lake Baikal basin (LBB) are considered to be highly susceptible to climate change. However, there is less information on the change trends in both climate and land cover in LBB and thus less understanding of the watershed sensitivity and adaptability to climate change. Here we identified the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in climate (from 1979 to 2016), land cover, and vegetation (from 2000 to 2010) in the LBB. During the past 40 years, there was a little increase in precipitation while air temperature has increased by 1.4 °C. During the past 10 years, land cover has changed significantly. Herein grassland, water bodies, permanent snow, and ice decreased by 485.40 km2, 161.55 km2 and 2.83 km2, respectively. However, forest and wetland increased by 111.40 km2 and 202.90 km2, respectively. About 83.67 km2 area of water bodies has been converted into the wetland. Also, there was a significant change in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the NDVI maximum value was 1 in 2000, decreased to 0.9 in 2010. Evidently, it was in the mountainous areas and in the river basin that the vegetation shifted. Our findings have implications for predicting the safety of water resources and water eco-environment in LBB under global change.
Journal Article
Study on Relationship of Land Cover Changes and Ecohydrological Processes of the Tuul River Basin
by
Yan, Denghua
,
Weng, Baisha
,
Dorjsuren, Batsuren
in
Climate change
,
Hydrologic cycle
,
Hydrology
2021
The Tuul River Basin is the most important socioeconomic and political base area of Mongolia. Therefore, studying the interrelationships between changes in the ecohydrological processes of this basin and its land cover is of great importance for maintaining sustainability and the environment. This study investigated the annual average air temperature, total annual precipitation, and river discharge variability, and land cover changes at selected stations of the basin by using the hydrometeorological analysis, satellite analysis, and land cover determination statistical analysis. During the study period, the average annual air temperature rose from −1.5 °C to +0.3 °C (1.8 °C 361 °C). The average annual precipitation exhibits relatively low change during this period. River discharge varied during the study period. A significant decreasing trend in river discharge was observed at the Terelj (φ = −2.72) and Ulaanbaatar (φ = −5.63) stations, whereas the other stations, Altanbulag, Lun, and Orkhontuul, showed a significant increasing trend. During the study period, changes in land cover were directly related to main hydrometeorological parameters. Between 2000 and 2020, the amount of grassland decreased by 319.67 km2, while the area of water bodies increased by 28.36 km2. In the study area, mainly water bodies and sensitive areas of the land cover types were changed due to changes in precipitation. Studies in the arid and semiarid regions of Central Asia show that changes of ecohydrological processes have a significant impact on land cover changes.
Journal Article