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The Ross Sea is known for showing the greatest sea-ice increase, as observed globally, particularly from 1979 to 2015. However, corresponding changes in sea-ice thickness and production in the Ross Sea are not known, nor how these changes have impacted water masses, carbon fluxes, biogeochemical processes and availability of micronutrients. The PIPERS project sought to address these questions during an autumn ship campaign in 2017 and two spring airborne campaigns in 2016 and 2017. PIPERS used a multidisciplinary approach of manned and autonomous platforms to study the coupled air/ice/ocean/biogeochemical interactions during autumn and related those to spring conditions. Unexpectedly, the Ross Sea experienced record low sea ice in spring 2016 and autumn 2017. The delayed ice advance in 2017 contributed to (1) increased ice production and export in coastal polynyas, (2) thinner snow and ice cover in the central pack, (3) lower sea-ice Chl-a burdens and differences in sympagic communities, (4) sustained ocean heat flux delaying ice thickening and (5) a melting, anomalously southward ice edge persisting into winter. Despite these impacts, airborne observations in spring 2017 suggest that winter ice production over the continental shelf was likely not anomalous.

The surface flooding of Antarctic sea ice in summer covers 50% or more of the sea-ice area in the major summer ice packs, the western Weddell and the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas. Two CRREL ice mass-balance buoys were deployed on the Amundsen Sea pack in late December 2010 from the icebreaker Oden, bridging the summer period (January–February 2011). Temperature records from thermistors embedded vertically in the snow and ice showed progressive increases in the depth of the flooded layer (up to 0.3–0.35 m) on the ice cover during January and February. While the snow depth was relatively unchanged from accumulation (<10 cm), ice thickness decreased by up to a meter from bottom melting during this period. Contemporaneous with the high bottom melting, under-ice water temperatures up to 1°C above the freezing point were found. The high temperature arises from solar heating of the upper mixed layer which can occur when ice concentration in the local area falls and lower albedo ocean water is exposed to radiative heating. The higher proportion of snow ice found in the Amundsen Sea pack ice therefore results from both winter snowfall and summer ice bottom melt found here that can lead to extensive surface flooding.

Sea ice exhibits a marked transition in its fluid transport properties at a critical brine volume fraction P$_c$ of about 5 percent, or temperature T$_c$ of about -5°C for salinity of 5 parts per thousand. For temperatures warmer than T$_c$, brine carrying heat and nutrients can move through the ice, whereas for colder temperatures the ice is impermeable. This transition plays a key role in the geophysics, biology, and remote sensing of sea ice. Percolation theory can be used to understand this critical behavior of transport in sea ice. The similarity of sea ice microstructure to compressed powders is used to theoretically predict P$_c$ of about 5 percent.

In the summer of 2010, atmosphere–ice–ocean interaction was studied aboard the icebreaker R/V Xuelong during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE), in the sea ice zone of the Pacific Arctic sector between 150° W and 180° W up to 88.5° N. The expedition lasted from 21 July to 28 August and comprised of ice observations and measurements along the cruise track, 8 short-term stations and one 12-day drift station. Ship-based observations of ice thickness and concentration are compared with ice thickness measured by an electromagnetic induction device (EM31) mounted off the ship's side and ice concentrations obtained from AMSR-E. It is found that the modal thickness from ship-based visual observations matches well with the modal thickness from the mounted EM31. A grid of 8 profiles of ice thickness measurements (four repeats) was conducted at the 12-day drift station in the central Arctic (~ 86°50´ N–87°20´ N) and an average melt rate of 2 cm day−1, primarily bottom melt, was found. As compared with the 2005 data from the Healy/Oden Trans-Arctic Expedition (HOTRAX) for the same sector but ~ 20 days later (9 August to 10 September), the summer 2010 was first-year ice dominant (vs. the multi-year ice dominant in 2005), 70% or less in mean ice concentration (vs. 90% in 2005), and 94–114 cm in mean ice thickness (vs. 150 cm in 2005). Those changes suggest the continuation of ice thinning, less concentration, and younger ice for the summer sea ice in the sector since 2007 when a record minimum sea ice extent was observed. Overall, the measurements provide a valuable dataset of sea ice morphological properties over the Arctic Pacific Sector in summer 2010 and can be used as a benchmark for measurements of future changes.

Antarctic sea ice cover has shown a slight increase (<1%/decade) in overall observed ice extent as derived from satellite mapping from 1979 to 2008, contrary to the decline observed in the Arctic regions. Spatial and temporal variations of the Antarctic sea ice however remain a significant problem to monitor and understand, primarily due to the vastness and remoteness of the region. While satellite remote sensing has provided and has great future potential to monitor the variations and changes of sea ice, uncertainties remain unresolved. In this study, the National Ice Center (NIC) ice edge and the AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System) ice extent are examined, while the ASPeCt (Antarctic Sea Ice Process and Climate) ship observations from the Oden expedition in December 2006 are used as ground truth to verify the two products during Antarctic summer. While there is a general linear trend between ASPeCt and AMSR-E ice concentration estimates, there is poor correlation (R2=0.41) and AMSR-E tends to underestimate the low ice concentrations. We also found that the NIC sea ice edge agrees well with ship observations, while the AMSR-E shows the ice edge further south, consistent with its poorer detection of low ice concentrations. The northward extent of the ice edge at the time of observation (NIC) had mean values varying from 38 km to 102 km greater on different days for the area as compared with the AMSR-E sea ice extent. For the circumpolar area as a whole in the December period examined, AMSR-E therefore may underestimate the area inside the ice edge at this time by up to 14% or, 1.5 million km2 less area, compared to the NIC ice charts. Preliminary comparison of satellite scatterometer data however, suggests better resolution of low concentrations than passive microwave, and therefore better agreement with ship observations and NIC charts of the area inside the ice edge during Antarctic summer. A reanalysis data set for Antarctic sea ice extent that relies on the decade long scatterometer and high resolution satellite data set, instead of passive microwave, may therefore give better fidelity for the recent sea ice climatology.

Mortality estimates are central to understanding tsetse fly population dynamics, but are difficult to acquire from wild populations. They can be obtained from age distribution data but, with limited data, it is unclear whether the assumptions required to make the estimates are satisfied and, if not, how violations affect the estimates. We evaluate the assumptions required for existing mortality estimation techniques using long-term longitudinal ovarian dissection data from 144,106 female tsetse, Glossina pallidipes Austen, captured in Zimbabwe between 1988 and 1999. At the end of the hot-dry season each year, mean ovarian ages peaked, and maximum-likelihood mortality estimates declined to low levels, contrary to mark-recapture estimates, suggesting violations of the assumptions underlying the estimation technique. We demonstrate that age distributions are seldom stable for G. pallidipes at our study site, and hypothesize that this is a consequence of a disproportionate increase in the mortality of pupae and young adults at the hottest times of the year. Assumptions of age-independent mortality and capture probability are also violated, the latter bias varying with capture method and with pregnancy and nutritional status. As a consequence, mortality estimates obtained from ovarian dissection data are unreliable. To overcome these problems we suggest simulating female tsetse populations, using dynamical modelling techniques that make no assumptions about the stability of the age distribution.

An autumn bloom of sea-ice algae was observed from February to June of 1992 within the upper 0.4 meter of multiyear ice in the Western Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The bloom was reliant on the freezing of porous areas within the ice that initiated a vertical exchange of nutrient-depleted brine with nutrient-rich seawater. This replenishment of nutrients to the algal community allowed the net production of 1760 milligrams of carbon and 200 milligrams of nitrogen per square meter of ice. The location of this autumn bloom is unlike that of spring blooms previously observed in both polar regions

Antarctic pack ice is inhabited by a diverse and active microbial community reliant on nutrients for growth. Seeking patterns and overlooked processes, we performed a large-scale compilation of macro-nutrient data (hereafter termed nutrients) in Antarctic pack ice (306 ice-cores collected from 19 research cruises). Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and silicic acid concentrations change with time, as expected from a seasonally productive ecosystem. In winter, salinity-normalized nitrate and silicic acid concentrations (C*) in sea ice are close to seawater concentrations (Cw), indicating little or no biological activity. In spring, nitrate and silicic acid concentrations become partially depleted with respect to seawater (C* < Cw), commensurate with the seasonal build-up of ice microalgae promoted by increased insolation. Stronger and earlier nitrate than silicic acid consumption suggests that a significant fraction of the primary productivity in sea ice is sustained by flagellates. By both consuming and producing ammonium and nitrite, the microbial community maintains these nutrients at relatively low concentrations in spring. With the decrease in insolation beginning in late summer, dissolved inorganic nitrogen and silicic acid concentrations increase, indicating imbalance between their production (increasing or unchanged) and consumption (decreasing) in sea ice. Unlike the depleted concentrations of both nitrate and silicic acid from spring to summer, phosphate accumulates in sea ice (C* > Cw). The phosphate excess could be explained by a greater allocation to phosphorus-rich biomolecules during ice algal blooms coupled with convective loss of excess dissolved nitrogen, preferential remineralization of phosphorus, and/or phosphate adsorption onto metal-organic complexes. Ammonium also appears to be efficiently adsorbed onto organic matter, with likely consequences to nitrogen mobility and availability. This dataset supports the view that the sea ice microbial community is highly efficient at processing nutrients but with a dynamic quite different from that in oceanic surface waters calling for focused future investigations.

All penguins except emperorsAptenodytes forsteriand AdeliesPygoscelis adeliaemoult on land, usually near the breeding colonies. These 2 Antarctic species typically moult somewhere in the pack-ice. Emperor penguins begin their moult in early summer when the pack-ice cover of the Antarctic Ocean is receding. The origin of the few moulting birds seen by observers on passing ships is unknown, and the locations are often far from any known colonies. We attached satellite transmitters to 12 breeding adultA. forsterifrom western Ross Sea colonies before they departed the colony for the last time before moulting. In addition, we surveyed some remote areas of the Weddell Sea north and east of some large colonies that are located along the southern and western borders of this sea. The tracked birds moved at a rate of nearly 50 km d–1for more than 1000 km over 30 d to reach areas of perennially consistent pack-ice. Almost all birds traveled to the eastern Ross Sea and western Amundsen Sea. Sea-ice conditions were observed directly in the Weddell Sea from ship and helicopter. Most floes selected for moulting were ridged, and usually >100 m². From these observations we predict where the most likely moult refuges are for emperor penguins from other colonies around the Antarctic continent.

Compartmental model diagrams have been used for nearly a century to depict causal relationships in infectious disease epidemiology. Causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) have been used more broadly in epidemiology since the 1990s to guide analyses of a variety of public health problems. Using an example from chronic disease epidemiology, the effect of type 2 diabetes on dementia incidence, we illustrate how compartmental model diagrams can represent the same concepts as causal DAGs, including causation, mediation, confounding, and collider bias. We show how to use compartmental model diagrams to explicitly depict interaction and feedback cycles. While DAGs imply a set of conditional independencies, they do not define conditional distributions parametrically. Compartmental model diagrams parametrically (or semiparametrically) describe state changes based on known biological processes or mechanisms. Compartmental model diagrams are part of a long-term tradition of causal thinking in epidemiology and can parametrically express the same concepts as DAGs, as well as explicitly depict feedback cycles and interactions. As causal inference efforts in epidemiology increasingly draw on simulations and quantitative sensitivity analyses, compartmental model diagrams may be of use to a wider audience. Recognizing simple links between these two common approaches to representing causal processes may facilitate communication between researchers from different traditions.