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"Adam, Klaus"
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Superman : President Luthor
His fame bolstered after helping to rebuild Gotham City after an earthquake, billionaire Lex Luthor decides to run for the highest office in the land, the American presidency.
Book
Optimal Trend Inflation
Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (i) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (ii) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogeneous-firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the US economy: the optimal inflation rate ranges between 1 percent and 3 percent per year and displays a downward trend over the period 1977–2015.
Journal Article
Stock market volatility and learning
We show that consumption-based asset pricing models with time-separable preferences generate realistic amounts of stock price volatility if one allows for small deviations from rational expectations. Rational investors with subjective beliefs about price behavior optimally learn from past price observations. This imparts momentum and mean reversion into stock prices. The model quantitatively accounts for the volatility of returns, the volatility and persistence of the price-dividend ratio, and the predictability of long-horizon returns. It passes a formal statistical test for the overall fit of a set of moments provided one excludes the equity premium.
Journal Article
PRICE-LEVEL CHANGES AND THE REDISTRIBUTION OF NOMINAL WEALTH ACROSS THE EURO AREA
We show that unexpected price-level movements generate sizable wealth redistribution in the Euro Area (EA), using sectoral accounts and newly available data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The EA as a whole is a net loser of unexpected price-level decreases, with Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain losing most in per capita terms, and Belgium and Malta being net winners. Governments are net losers of deflation, while the household (HH) sector is a net winner in the EA as a whole. HHs in Belgium, Ireland, Malta, and Germany experience the biggest per capita gains, while HHs in Finland and Spain turn out to be net losers. Considerable heterogeneity exists also within the HH sector: relatively young middle class HHs are net losers of deflation, while older and richer HHs are winners. As a result, wealth inequality in the EA increases with unexpected deflation, although in some countries (Austria, Germany, and Malta) inequality decreases due to the presence of relatively few young borrowing HHs. We document that HHs' inflation exposure varies systematically across countries, with HHs in high-inflation EA countries holding systematically lower nominal exposures.
Journal Article
α-Hydroxybutyrate Is an Early Biomarker of Insulin Resistance and Glucose Intolerance in a Nondiabetic Population
Insulin resistance is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease progression. Current diagnostic tests, such as glycemic indicators, have limitations in the early detection of insulin resistant individuals. We searched for novel biomarkers identifying these at-risk subjects.
Using mass spectrometry, non-targeted biochemical profiling was conducted in a cohort of 399 nondiabetic subjects representing a broad spectrum of insulin sensitivity and glucose tolerance (based on the hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp and oral glucose tolerance testing, respectively).
Random forest statistical analysis selected alpha-hydroxybutyrate (alpha-HB) as the top-ranked biochemical for separating insulin resistant (lower third of the clamp-derived M(FFM) = 33 [12] micromol x min(-1) x kg(FFM) (-1), median [interquartile range], n = 140) from insulin sensitive subjects (M(FFM) = 66 [23] micromol x min(-1) x kg(FFM) (-1)) with a 76% accuracy. By targeted isotope dilution assay, plasma alpha-HB concentrations were reciprocally related to M(FFM); and by partition analysis, an alpha-HB value of 5 microg/ml was found to best separate insulin resistant from insulin sensitive subjects. alpha-HB also separated subjects with normal glucose tolerance from those with impaired fasting glycemia or impaired glucose tolerance independently of, and in an additive fashion to, insulin resistance. These associations were also independent of sex, age and BMI. Other metabolites from this global analysis that significantly correlated to insulin sensitivity included certain organic acid, amino acid, lysophospholipid, acylcarnitine and fatty acid species. Several metabolites are intermediates related to alpha-HB metabolism and biosynthesis.
alpha-hydroxybutyrate is an early marker for both insulin resistance and impaired glucose regulation. The underlying biochemical mechanisms may involve increased lipid oxidation and oxidative stress.
Journal Article
Early Metabolic Markers of the Development of Dysglycemia and Type 2 Diabetes and Their Physiological Significance
Metabolomic screening of fasting plasma from nondiabetic subjects identified α-hydroxybutyrate (α-HB) and linoleoyl-glycerophosphocholine (L-GPC) as joint markers of insulin resistance (IR) and glucose intolerance. To test the predictivity of α-HB and L-GPC for incident dysglycemia, α-HB and L-GPC measurements were obtained in two observational cohorts, comprising 1,261 nondiabetic participants from the Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Disease (RISC) study and 2,580 from the Botnia Prospective Study, with 3-year and 9.5-year follow-up data, respectively. In both cohorts, α-HB was a positive correlate and L-GPC a negative correlate of insulin sensitivity, with α-HB reciprocally related to indices of β-cell function derived from the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). In follow-up, α-HB was a positive predictor (adjusted odds ratios 1.25 [95% CI 1.00–1.60] and 1.26 [1.07–1.48], respectively, for each standard deviation of predictor), and L-GPC was a negative predictor (0.64 [0.48–0.85] and 0.67 [0.54–0.84]) of dysglycemia (RISC) or type 2 diabetes (Botnia), independent of familial diabetes, sex, age, BMI, and fasting glucose. Corresponding areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.791 (RISC) and 0.783 (Botnia), similar in accuracy when substituting α-HB and L-GPC with 2-h OGTT glucose concentrations. When their activity was examined, α-HB inhibited and L-GPC stimulated glucose-induced insulin release in INS-1e cells. α-HB and L-GPC are independent predictors of worsening glucose tolerance, physiologically consistent with a joint signature of IR and β-cell dysfunction.
Journal Article
Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains
Investors' subjective capital gains expectations are a key element explaining stock price fluctuations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism (pessimism) at market peaks (troughs). We formally reject the hypothesis that this is compatible with rational expectations. We then incorporate subjective price beliefs with such properties into a standard asset-pricing model with rational agents (internal rationality). The model gives rise to boom-bust cycles that temporarily delink stock prices from fundamentals and quantitatively replicates many asset-pricing moments. In particular, it matches the observed strong positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and survey return expectations, which cannot be matched by rational expectations.
Journal Article
Genetic Variants Associated With Glycine Metabolism and Their Role in Insulin Sensitivity and Type 2 Diabetes
Circulating metabolites associated with insulin sensitivity may represent useful biomarkers, but their causal role in insulin sensitivity and diabetes is less certain. We previously identified novel metabolites correlated with insulin sensitivity measured by the hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. The top-ranking metabolites were in the glutathione and glycine biosynthesis pathways. We aimed to identify common genetic variants associated with metabolites in these pathways and test their role in insulin sensitivity and type 2 diabetes. With 1,004 nondiabetic individuals from the RISC study, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 14 insulin sensitivity–related metabolites and one metabolite ratio. We replicated our results in the Botnia study (n = 342). We assessed the association of these variants with diabetes-related traits in GWAS meta-analyses (GENESIS [including RISC, EUGENE2, and Stanford], MAGIC, and DIAGRAM). We identified four associations with three metabolites—glycine (rs715 at CPS1), serine (rs478093 at PHGDH), and betaine (rs499368 at SLC6A12; rs17823642 at BHMT)—and one association signal with glycine-to-serine ratio (rs1107366 at ALDH1L1). There was no robust evidence for association between these variants and insulin resistance or diabetes. Genetic variants associated with genes in the glycine biosynthesis pathways do not provide consistent evidence for a role of glycine in diabetes-related traits.
Journal Article
Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation
This article presents experimental evidence from a monetary sticky price economy in which output and inflation depend on expected future inflation. Rational inflation expectations do not allow for persistent deviations of output and inflation following a monetary shock. In the experimental sessions, however, output and inflation display considerable persistence and regular cyclical patterns. This emerges because subjects' inflation expectations fail to be captured by rational expectations functions. Instead, a Restricted Perceptions Equilibrium (RPE), which assumes that agents use optimal but 'simple' forecast functions, describes subjects' inflation expectations surprisingly well and explains the observed behaviour of output and inflation.
Journal Article
Optimal Sovereign Default
When is it optimal for a fully committed government to default on its legal repayment obligations? Considering a small open economy with domestic production risk and noncontingent government debt, we show that it is ex ante optimal to occasionally deviate from the legal repayment obligation and to repay debt only partially. This holds true even if default generates significant deadweight costs ex post. A quantitative analysis reveals that default is optimal only in response to persistent disaster-like shocks to domestic output. Applying the framework to the situation in Greece, we find that optimal default policies suggest a considerably larger and more timely default than the one actually implemented in the year 2012.
Journal Article