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Individuals relying on natural resource extraction for their livelihood face high income variability driven by a mix of environmental, biological, management, and economic factors. Key to managing these industries is identifying how regulatory actions and individual behavior affect income variability, financial risk, and, by extension, the economic stability and the sustainable use of natural resources. In commercial fisheries, communities and vessels fishing a greater diversity of species have less revenue variability than those fishing fewer species. However, it is unclear whether these benefits extend to the actions of individual fishers and how year-to-year changes in diversification affect revenue and revenue variability. Here, we evaluate two axes by which fishers in Alaska can diversify fishing activities. We show that, despite increasing specialization over the last 30 years, fishing a set of permits with higher species diversity reduces individual revenue variability, and fishing an additional permit is associated with higher revenue and lower variability. However, increasing species diversity within the constraints of existing permits has a fishery-dependent effect on revenue and is usually (87% probability) associated with increased revenue uncertainty the following year. Our results demonstrate that the most effective option for individuals to decrease revenue variability is to participate in additional or more diverse fisheries. However, this option is expensive, often limited by regulations such as catch share programs, and consequently unavailable to many individuals. With increasing climatic variability, it will be particularly important that individuals relying on natural resources for their livelihood have effective strategies to reduce financial risk.

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

Hatcheries are vital to many salmon fisheries, with inherent risks and rewards. While hatcheries can increase the returns of adult fish, the demographic and evolutionary consequences for natural populations interacting with hatchery fish on spawning grounds remain unclear. This study examined the impacts of stray hatchery-origin pink salmon on natural population productivity and resilience. We explored temporal assortative mating dynamics using a quantitative genetic model that assumed the only difference between hatchery- and natural-origin adults was their return timing to natural spawning grounds. This model was parameterized with empirical data from an intensive multi-generational study of hatchery–wild interactions in the world’s largest pink salmon fisheries enhancement program located in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Across scenarios of increasing hatchery fish presence on spawning grounds, our findings underscore a trade-off between demographic enhancement and preservation of natural population diversity. While enhancement bolstered natural population sizes towards local carrying capacities, hatchery introgression reduced variation in adult return timing by up to 20%. Results indicated that hatchery-origin alleles can rapidly assimilate into natural populations, despite the reduced fitness of hatchery fish attributable to phenotypic mismatches. These findings elucidate the potential for long-term demographic and evolutionary consequences arising from specific hatchery–wild interactions, emphasizing the need for management strategies that balance demographic enhancement with the conservation of natural diversity.

1. Theory and previous studies have shown that commercial fishers with a diversified catch across multiple species may experience benefits such as increased revenue and reduced variability in revenue. However, fishers can only increase the species diversity of their catch if they own fishing permits that allow multiple species to be targeted, or if they own multiple single-species permits. Individuals holding a single permit can only increase catch diversity within the confines of their permit (e.g. by fishing longer or over a broader spatial area). 2. Using a large dataset of individual salmon fishers in Alaska, we build a Bayesian variance function regression model to understand how diversification impacts revenue and revenue variability, and how these effects have evolved since the 1970s. 3. Applying these models to six salmon fisheries that encompass a broad geographic range and a variety of harvesting methods and species, we find that the majority of these fisheries have experienced reduced catch diversity through time and increasing benefits of specialization on mean individual revenues. 4. One factor that has been hypothesized to reduce catch diversity in salmon fisheries is large-scale hatchery production. While our results suggest negative correlations between hatchery returns and catch diversity for some fisheries, we find little evidence for a change in variability of annual catches associated with increased hatchery production. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite general trends towards more specialization among commercial fishers in Alaska, and more fishers exclusively targeting salmon, we find that catching fewer species can have positive effects on revenue. With increasing specialization, it is important to understand how individuals buffer against risk, as well as any barriers that prevent diversification. In addition to being affected by environmental variability, fishers are also affected by economic factors including demand and prices offered by processors. Life-history variation in the species targeted may also play a role. Individuals participating in Alaskan fisheries with high contributions of pink salmon — which have the shortest life cycles of all Pacific salmon — also have the highest variability in year-to-year revenue.

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers in the Western Distinct Population Segment are beginning to recover following the dramatic decline that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. Low female reproductive rates (natality) may have contributed to the decline and remain an issue of concern for this population. During the 2000s we found high natality among Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska indicating a healthy population. This study extends these previous estimates over an additional three years and tests for interannual variations and long-term trends. We further examine the proportions of pups to adult females observed on the rookery and nearby haulouts during the birthing season to assess whether census data can be used to estimate natality. Open robust design multistate models were built and tested using Program MARK to estimate survival, resighting, and state transition probabilities in addition to other parameters dependent on whether or not a female gave birth in the previous year. Natality was estimated at 70% with some evidence of interannual variation but a long-term increasing or decreasing trend was not supported by the data. Bootstrap and regression comparisons of census data with natality estimates revealed no correlation between the two methods suggesting that census data are not an appropriate proxy for natality in this species. Longitudinal studies of individual animals are an appropriate method for estimating vital rates in species with variable detection over time such as the Steller sea lion. This work indicates that natality remains high in this region and is consistent with a population in recovery.

We explored the nature of declines in size and age at maturity in 2 populations of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in western Alaska, USA, using multidimensional probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs) accounting for growth history. Individual growth histories informed by retrospective scale analysis were used to construct PMRNs and to describe the relative influence of different life-history periods on age at maturity. Similar results were found in both populations. Models accounting for growth history uniformly outperformed size-at-age models, suggesting the importance of growth history for the determination of maturation. The second year of marine growth was found to have a disproportionate influence on the age at maturity in both sexes. Males tended to grow more than females in length during the second year at sea, possibly as a consequence of females storing more energy in preparation for the high cost of female gonad development. Finally, we found that growth thresholds for maturation have shown a long-term decline in both sexes. This suggests that declines in the average age at maturity of western Alaskan Chinook salmon may have been caused in part by adaptation to environmental or fisheries-induced selection.

Previous studies have shown that, for managing harvest of natural resources, overly complex models perform poorly. Decision-analytic approaches treat uncertainly differently from the maximum-likelihood approaches these studies employed. By simulation using a simple fisheries model, I show that decision-analytic approaches to managing harvest also can suffer from using overly complex models. Managers using simpler models can outperform managers using more complex models, even if the more complex models are correct and even if their use allows the incorporation of additional relevant information. Decision-analytic approaches outperformed maximum-likelihood approaches in my simulations, even when Bayesian priors were uninformative.

Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from western Alaska have experienced recent declines in abundance, size, and age at maturity. Declines have led to hardships for the region's subsistence and commercial salmon harvesters, prompting calls to better understand factors affecting the life history of these populations. Western Alaskan Chinook Salmon are thought to spend their entire marine residency in the Bering Sea. The Bering Sea ecosystem demonstrates high interannual variability that is largely driven by the annual extent of sea ice. However, warming is expected to supersede interannual variability in the next several decades as a consequence of climate change. We investigated the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the life history of western Alaskan Chinook Salmon by using information from two regional populations subject to long‐term monitoring. We found strong correlations between early marine growth and SSTs. Warmer SSTs appeared to lead to a younger age at maturity, largely through the vector of augmented growth. However, we also present evidence that warmer SSTs may additionally decrease the average age of male recruits through reduced growth thresholds for early male maturation. Our results suggest that the anticipated warming of the Bering Sea will lead to higher early marine growth and a younger average age of maturation for western Alaskan Chinook Salmon.

In salmon populations, local adaptation to seasonally varying incubation temperature is characterized by temperature-adjusted development times [measured in degree days – accumulated temperature units (ATUs)] that differ between control and F 1 hybrid crosses that were made between temporally separated population segments, a contrast not expected in a panmictic population. We examined adaptation of embryo development time to seasonally cooling temperature in a population of pink salmon by estimating genetic components of variation in control and hybrid F 1 crosses made between members of early- and late-spawning subpopulations, and replicated our observations in independent odd- and even-year brood lines. In each brood line, both sire and dam components of variation of development time were significant and accounted for a substantially larger portion of variation than their interactions, which suggested that natural selection has acted primarily on additive genetic variation. The implications of these results are that (1) spatially or temporally proximate salmon populations may be structured by distinct adaptations; (2) artificial relaxation of local geneflow barriers may lead to depression of fitness; and (3) populations of salmon genetically structured by local adaptation may carry variation that enhances their persistence during rapid climate change.

Many ecological circumstances present individuals with a conflict between the inherent benefits of a particular habitat and the costs incurred in acquiring or retaining use of the habitat in the face of competition. For example, the reproductive biology of female Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) led us to hypothesize that female nest site choice should reflect a compromise between the benefits of obtaining a high quality nest site and the cost of competing for and defending it. To test this hypothesis we studied female sockeye salmon (O. nerka) spawning on beaches in Iliamna Lake, Alaska using a combination of snorkel surveys, tagging, behavior observations, and models. Females showed spatial preferences in nest site selection (for shallower water, where water circulation was higher), aggressive competition in preferred areas was higher, and there was evidence for costs associated with this increased competition. Over the course of the season, spawning activity shifted from shallower to deeper water, consistent with a tradeoff between benefits for embryo survival associated with shallow sites and the costs of competing for them. However, it was also consistent with date-specific optimal sites related to the probability of embryo mortality for eggs spawned in shallow water late in the season, due to annual cycles in lake level and temperature.