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The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test is used to screen for prostate cancer but has a high false-positive rate that translates into unnecessary prostate biopsies and overdiagnosis of low-risk prostate cancers. We aimed to develop and validate a model to identify high-risk prostate cancer (with a Gleason score of at least 7) with better test characteristics than that provided by PSA screening alone. The Stockholm 3 (STHLM3) study is a prospective, population-based, paired, screen-positive, diagnostic study of men without prostate cancer aged 50–69 years randomly invited by date of birth from the Swedish Population Register kept by the Swedish Tax Agency. Men with prostate cancer at enrolment were excluded from the study. The predefined STHLM3 model (a combination of plasma protein biomarkers [PSA, free PSA, intact PSA, hK2, MSMB, MIC1], genetic polymorphisms [232 SNPs], and clinical variables [age, family, history, previous prostate biopsy, prostate exam]), and PSA concentration were both tested in all participants enrolled. The primary aim was to increase the specificity compared with PSA without decreasing the sensitivity to diagnose high-risk prostate cancer. The primary outcomes were number of detected high-risk cancers (sensitivity) and the number of performed prostate biopsies (specificity). The STHLM3 training cohort was used to train the STHLM3 model, which was prospectively tested in the STHLM3 validation cohort. Logistic regression was used to test for associations between biomarkers and clinical variables and prostate cancer with a Gleason score of at least 7. This study is registered with ISCRTN.com, number ISRCTN84445406. The STHLM3 model performed significantly better than PSA alone for detection of cancers with a Gleason score of at least 7 (p<0·0001), the area under the curve was 0·56 (95% CI 0·55–0·60) with PSA alone and 0·74 (95% CI 0·72–0·75) with the STHLM3 model. All variables used in the STHLM3 model were significantly associated with prostate cancers with a Gleason score of at least 7 (p<0·05) in a multiple logistic regression model. At the same level of sensitivity as the PSA test using a cutoff of ≥3 ng/mL to diagnose high risk prostate cancer, use of the STHLM3 model could reduce the number of biopsies by 32% (95% CI 24–39) and could avoid 44% (35–54) of benign biopsies. The STHLM3 model could reduce unnecessary biopsies without compromising the ability to diagnose prostate cancer with a Gleason score of at least 7, and could be a step towards personalised risk-based prostate cancer diagnostic programmes. Stockholm County Council (Stockholms Läns Landsting).

No meta-analysis is yet available for the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) following androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for men with prostate cancer. To summarize the evidence for the link between ADT and MetS or its components quantitatively with a meta-analysis including all studies published to date. PubMed and Embase were searched using predefined inclusion criteria to perform meta-analyses on the association between metabolic syndrome, hyperglycemia, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia or obesity and androgen deprivation therapy in patients with prostate cancer. Random effects methods were used to estimate pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A total of nine studies was included. There was a positive association between ADT and risk of MetS (RR: 1.75 (95% CI: 1.27-2.41)). Diabetes was the only MetS component present in more than 3 studies, and also showed an increased risk following ADT (RR: 1.36 (95% CI: 1.17-1.58)). This is the first quantitative summary addressing the potential risk of MetS following ADT in men with PCa. The positive RRs indicate that there is a need to further elucidate how type and duration of ADT affect these increased risks of MetS and diabetes as the number of men with PCa treated with ADT is increasing.

Background Improving participation rates in epidemiologic studies using questionnaires and biological sampling is important for the generalizability of the outcome. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of pre-notification, invitation length, questionnaire length, and reminder on participation rate and to investigate whether some factors contributed to participants doing both the questionnaire and blood sampling as oppose to only one part. Methods Our study was embedded within the pilot testing of a large population-based study about prostate cancer screening. Our study sample consisted of 28.134 men between 50 and 69 years of age and living in the region of Stockholm (Sweden) invited to respond to a web-based questionnaire and to provide blood for prostate cancer testing. The men were randomly allocated according to birth of date to receive either: (a) a pre-notification postcard or not; (b) a shorter or a longer invitation letter; (c) a shorter or a longer web-based questionnaire, and (d) a reminder or not. The effects of the survey design factors were tested using chi-square. Results The use of a pre-notification ( p  < 0.0001), a longer questionnaire ( p  = 0.004) and the use of a reminder ( p  = 0.02) were associated with an increase in overall participation, i.e. responding to the questionnaire or providing blood for PCT or performing both components. Conclusions The results of this pilot study justified the use of a pre-notification and a reminder in the following large population based study since the benefits of increased participation traded off against the greater costs incurred. Furthermore, we were able to use the longer version of the questionnaire, which allowed us to collect more information without risking a lower response rate.

Background Prostate cancer (PCa) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are prevalent conditions that often occur concomitantly. However, many aspects of the impact of T2DM, particularly the duration of T2DM and antidiabetic medications, on PCa risk are poorly understood. Methods To assess the association of duration of T2DM and antidiabetic medication with PCa risk, we designed a matched case-control study, including 31,415 men with PCa and 154,812 PCa-free men in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) 4.1. Results Overall, a decreased risk of PCa was observed for men with T2DM (odds ratio (OR): 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78–0.84), as compared to men without T2DM. The decreased risk of PCa was consistently showed across duration of T2DM. With respect to use of antidiabetic drugs, this inverse association with duration was also found for all medications types, as compared to men without T2DM, including insulin, metformin and sulphonylurea (SU) (e.g. 3- < 5 yr insulin OR:0.69, 95%CI:0.60–0.80; 3- < 5 yr metformin OR: 0.82, 95%CI: 0.74–0.91; 3- < 5 yr SU OR: 0.72, 95%CI: 0.62–0.83). When stratifying by PCa risk categories, this decreased risk was most evident for diagnosis of low and intermediate-risk PCa (low-risk OR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.66–0.70, intermediate-risk OR: 0.80, 95%CI: 0.75–0.85). Conclusions The study showed an inverse association between pre-existing T2DM and PCa across different durations of T2DM and all types of T2DM medication received. This inverse association was most evident for low- and intermediate-risk PCa, suggesting that whilst T2DM and its medication may protect some men from developing PCa, the relationship warrants further study.

To investigate the association between lower urinary-tract infections, their associated antibiotics and the subsequent risk of developing PCa. Using data from the Swedish PCBaSe 3.0, we performed a matched case-control study (8762 cases and 43806 controls). Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between lower urinary-tract infections, related antibiotics and PCa, whilst adjusting for civil status, education, Charlson Comorbidity Index and time between lower urinary-tract infection and PCa diagnosis. It was found that lower urinary-tract infections did not affect PCa risk, however, having a lower urinary-tract infection or a first antibiotic prescription 6-12 months before PCa were both associated with an increased risk of PCa (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.23-1.82 and 1.96, 1.71-2.25, respectively), as compared to men without lower urinary-tract infections. Compared to men with no prescriptions for antibiotics, men who were prescribed ≥10 antibiotics, were 15% less likely to develop PCa (OR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.78-0.91). PCa was not found to be associated with diagnosis of a urinary-tract infection or frequency, but was positively associated with short time since diagnoses of lower urinary-tract infection or receiving prescriptions for antibiotics. These observations can likely be explained by detection bias, which highlights the importance of data on the diagnostic work-up when studying potential risk factors for PCa.

Objectives The objective of this study is to find clinical variables that predict the prognosis for men with castration‐resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) in a Swedish real‐life CRPC cohort, including a risk group classification to clarify the risk of succumbing to prostate cancer. This is a natural history cohort representing the premodern drug era before the introduction of novel hormonal drug therapies. Methods PSA tests from the clinical chemistry laboratories serving health care in six regions of Sweden were retrieved and cross‐linked to the National Prostate Cancer Registry (NPCR) to identify men with a prostate cancer diagnosis. Through further cross‐linking with data sources at the Swedish Board of Health and Welfare, we retrieved other relevant information such as prescribed drugs, hospitalizations, and cause of death. Men entered the CRPC cohort at the first date of doubling of their PSA nadir value with the last value being >2 ng/ml, or an absolute increase of >5 ng/ml or more, whilst on 3 months of medical castration or if they had been surgically castrated (n = 4098). By combining the two variables with the largest C‐statistics, “PSA at time of CRPC” and “PSA doubling time,” a risk group classification was created. Results PSA‐DT and PSA at date of CRPC are the strongest variables associated with PC specific survival. At the end of follow‐up, the proportion of men who died due to PC was 57%, 71%, 81%, 86%, and 89% for risk categories one through five, respectively. The median overall survival in our cohort of men with CRPC was 1.86 years (95% CI: 1.79–1.97). Conclusion For a man with castration‐resistant prostate cancer, there is a high probability that this will be the main cause contributing to his death. However, there is a significant difference in mortality that varies in relation to tumor burden assessed as PSA doubling time and PSA at time of CRCP. This information could be used in a clinical setting when deciding when to treat more or less aggressively once entering the CRPC phase of the disease.

Implementation of risk-based prostate cancer screening has been proposed as a means to reduce the harms of PSA screening. Little is known, however, about the factors influencing men's decision to attend a prostate cancer screening based on a risk assessment. We sent postal invitations with a login to a survey to 10.000 men, three months before invitation to a risk-based prostate cancer screening. Prostate cancer specific worry, prostate cancer-related knowledge, health behaviour, and health related quality of life were used as predictors of subsequent participation. Participation to risk-based prostate cancer screening was defined as providing a blood sample for the STHLM3 trial, a study evaluating a risk-based model that predicts the risk for aggressive prostate cancer. With a response rate of 20%, 1.347 men (70%) participated in ensuing risk-based prostate cancer screening three months later whereas 568 men (30%) declined participation in the STHLM3-study. These decliners reported less worry and feeling less vulnerable to prostate cancer and responded \"Do not know\" more often than participants when asked questions about prostate cancer knowledge. Participants reported greater benefits of prostate testing (p = 0.0005), less barriers to prostate testing (p<0.0001), and higher intention to attend prostate cancer testing (p<0.0001) than decliners. Finally, participants reported better overall health than decliners (p<0.0001). Prostate cancer worry, PC knowledge, health behaviour and quality of life were identified as predictors of participation in risk-based prostate cancer screening. Targeting these predictors may improve the participation rates. These results can inform policymaking for future population-based prostate cancer screening programs that should address potential worry in men and lack of knowledge about prostate cancer.

Background Gonadotropin Releasing Hormones agonists (GnRH), which are first line treatment for metastatic prostate cancer (PCa), increase risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aims to quantify the association of use of GnRH with diabetes control in PCa men with T2DM. Methods Nationwide population-based cohort study in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden 4.1, on the association between GnRH and diabetes control in T2DM men with PCa by comparing T2DM men with PCa vs. without PCa, as well as comparing T2DM men with PCa on or not on GnRH. The primary exposure was use of GnRH. Worsening diabetes control was the primary outcome, defined as: 1) HbA1c rose to 58 mmol/mol or higher; 2) HbA1c increase by 10 mmol/mol or more; 3) Start of antidiabetic drugs or switch to insulin. We also combined all above definitions. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyze the association. Results There were 5714 T2DM men with PCa of whom 692 were on GnRH and 28,445 PCa-free men with T2DM with similar baseline characteristics. Diabetes control was worse in men with GnRH vs. PCa-free men (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.13–1.34) as well as compared with PCa men without GnRH (HR:1.58, 95% CI: 1.39–1.80), when we defined the worsening control of diabetes by combining all definitions above. Conclusion Use of GnRH in T2DM men with PCa was associated with worse glycemic control. The findings highlight the need to closely monitor diabetes control in men with T2DM and PCa starting GnRH.

Background Whether chronic inflammation increases prostate cancer risk remains unclear. This study investigated whether chronic inflammatory diseases (CID) or anti-inflammatory medication use (AIM) were associated with prostate cancer risk. Methods Fifty-five thousand nine hundred thirty-seven cases (all prostate cancer, 2007–2012) and 279,618 age-matched controls were selected from the Prostate Cancer Database Sweden. CIDs and AIMs was determined from national patient and drug registers. Associations were investigated using conditional logistic regression, including for disease/drug subtypes and exposure length/dose. Results Men with a history of any CID had slightly increased risk of any prostate cancer diagnosis (OR: 1.08; 95%CI: 1.04–1.12) but not ‘unfavourable’ (high-risk or advanced) prostate cancer. Generally, risk of prostate cancer was highest for shorter exposure times. However, a positive association was observed for asthma > 5 years before prostate cancer diagnosis (OR: 1.21; 95%CI: 1.05–1.40). Risk of prostate cancer was increased with prior use of any AIMs (OR: 1.26; 95%CI: 1.24–1.29). A positive trend with increasing cumulative dose was only observed for inhaled glucocorticoids ( p  < 0.011). Conclusion Detection bias most likely explains the elevated risk of prostate cancer with prior history of CIDs or use of AIMs, given the higher risk immediately after first CID event and lack of dose response. However, findings for length of time with asthma and dose of inhaled glucocorticoids suggest that asthma may increase risk of prostate cancer through other pathways.

Cancer is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic diseases, but data on the association between prostate cancer and thromboembolic diseases are scarce. We investigated the risk of thromboembolic disease in men with prostate cancer who were receiving endocrine treatment, curative treatment, or surveillance. We analysed data from PCBaSe Sweden, a database based on the National Prostate Cancer Register, which covers over 96% of prostate cancer cases in Sweden. Standardised incidence ratios (SIR) of deep-venous thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism, and arterial embolism were calculated by comparing observed and expected (using the total Swedish male population) occurrences of thromboembolic disease, taking into account age, calendar-time, number of thromboembolic diseases, and time since previous thromboembolic disease. Between Jan 1, 1997, and Dec 31, 2007, 30 642 men received primary endocrine therapy, 26 432 curative treatment, and 19 526 surveillance. 1881 developed a thromboembolic disease. For men on endocrine therapy, risks for DVT (SIR 2·48, 95% CI 2·25–2·73) and pulmonary embolism (1·95, 1·81–2·15) were increased, although this was not the case for arterial embolism (1·00, 0·82–1·20). Similar patterns were seen for men who received curative treatment (DVT: 1·73, 1·47–2·01; pulmonary embolism: 2·03, 1·79–2·30; arterial embolism: 0·95, 0·69–1·27) and men who were on surveillance (DVT: 1·27, 1·08–1·47; pulmonary embolism: 1·57, 1·38–1·78; arterial embolism: 1·08, 0·87–1·33). Increased risks for thromboembolic disease were maintained when patients were stratified by age and tumour stage. All men with prostate cancer were at higher risk of thromboembolic diseases, with the highest risk for those on endocrine therapy. Our results indicate that prostate cancer itself, prostate cancer treatments, and selection mechanisms all contribute to increased risk of thromboembolic disease. Thromboembolic disease should be a concern when managing patients with prostate cancer. Swedish Research Council, Stockholm Cancer Society, and Cancer Research UK.