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Most studies of the political economy of money focus on the laws protecting central banks from government interference; this book turns to the overlooked people who actually make monetary policy decisions. Using formal theory and statistical evidence from dozens of central banks across the developed and developing worlds, this book shows that monetary policy agents are not all the same. Molded by specific professional and sectoral backgrounds and driven by career concerns, central bankers with different career trajectories choose predictably different monetary policies. These differences undermine the widespread belief that central bank independence is a neutral solution for macroeconomic management. Instead, through careful selection and retention of central bankers, partisan governments can and do influence monetary policy - preserving a political trade-off between inflation and real economic performance even in an age of legally independent central banks.

Spectacular economic growth in China suggests the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has somehow gotten it right. A key hypothesis in both economics and political science is that the CCP's cadre evaluation system, combined with China's geography-based governing logic, has motivated local administrators to compete with one another to generate high growth. We raise a number of theoretical and empirical challenges to this claim. Using a new biographical database of Central Committee members, a previously overlooked feature of CCP reporting, and a novel Bayesian method that can estimate individual-level correlates of partially observed ranks, we find no evidence that strong growth performance was rewarded with higher party ranks at any of the postreform party congresses. Instead, factional ties with various top leaders, educational qualifications, and provincial revenue collection played substantial roles in elite ranking, suggesting that promotion systems served the immediate needs of the regime and its leaders, rather than encompassing goals such as economic growth.

Because the American states operate under balanced budget requirements, increases in spending in one area typically entail equal and opposite budget cuts in other programs. The literature analysing the correlates of government spending by policy area has mostly ignored these trade-offs inherent to policymaking, failing to address one of the most politically interesting and important dimensions of fiscal policy. Borrowing from the statistical literature on compositional data, we present more appropriate and efficient methods that explicitly incorporate the budget constraint into models of spending by budget category. We apply these methods to eight categories of spending from the American states over the years 1984–2009 to reveal winners and losers in the scramble for government spending. Our findings show that partisan governments finance their distinct priorities by raiding spending items that the opposition prefers, while different political institutions, economic conditions and state demographics impose different trade-offs across the budget.

Background Compliance failure with administration of heartworm (HW) disease preventives has been reported as the main contributor to HW disease incidence in medicalized dogs. This study aimed to evaluate purchase compliance with different canine HW preventive products in the USA. Methods Anonymized transaction data from clinics throughout the USA served as the basis for two retrospective analyses. We first examined the monthly equivalent doses of HW preventive purchases from clinics that had implemented extended-release moxidectin injectables ProHeart ® 6 (PH6) and/or ProHeart ® 12 (PH12) compared to clinics that prescribed monthly HW preventatives (MHWP) only. In the second analysis, the purchase compliance in practices that dispensed only flea and tick (FT) and HW products separately but did not dispense combination products (dual-therapy practices) was compared to the purchase compliance with the combination product Simparica Trio ® (sarolaner, moxidectin, and pyrantel chewable tablets), purchased in clinics having implemented combination therapy in their formulary (combination-therapy practices). In both analyses, the numbers of monthly doses dispensed annually per dog were calculated. Results Transaction data from 3,539,990 dogs in 4615 practices were included in the first analysis. In dogs administered PH12 or PH6, the numbers of monthly equivalent doses were 12 and 8.1, respectively. In both clinic types, the average annual number of MHWP doses totaled 7.3. In the second analysis, a total of 919 practices were identified as combination-therapy practices and 434 as dual-therapy-only practices. A total of 246,654 dogs (160,854 dogs in dual-therapy practices and 85,800 dogs in combination-therapy practices) were included in the calculation of the average annual number of monthly doses, which totaled 6.8 (HW preventive products) and 4.4 (FT products) in dual-therapy practices compared to 7.2 months for both FT and HW preventives with Simparica Trio ® across both practice types. Conclusions The injectable HW preventive PH12 is the only product that provides 12 months of heartworm disease prevention in a single veterinarian-administered injection. When choosing a monthly preventive, the combination therapy was associated with a greater purchase compliance compared with FT and HW products being dispensed separately. Graphical Abstract

Macrocyclic lactones (MLs) are the only drug class currently licensed for heartworm disease prophylaxis. Macrocyclic lactones kill third- and fourth-stage larvae of Dirofilaria immitis , thus preventing the development of adult worms in dogs, which are responsible for heartworm disease, a potentially life-threatening condition. Despite considerable overlap in terms of endectocide spectrum, several important differences distinguish moxidectin from other MLs. Moxidectin has beneficial pharmacokinetic characteristics, such as a longer half-life and greater tissue distribution compared to ivermectin. Additionally, moxidectin has a greater margin of safety compared to ivermectin in dogs with ABCB1 (previously MDR1) gene-defect, which is commonly recognized in collies and other breeds. Multiple laboratory studies have shown that moxidectin is more effective than other commonly used heartworm preventives against resistant strains of D. immitis . This improved efficacy benefits individual dogs and helps reduce the risk of spreading resistant strains within the community. Despite the presence of proven resistant strains in the United States, non-compliance with preventive measures remains a major factor contributing to the diagnosis of heartworm disease in dogs. In retrospective analyses, the oral moxidectin combination product Simparica Trio ® (sarolaner, moxidectin, and pyrantel) was associated with increased compliance, resulting in more time of protection compared to dogs receiving flea/tick and heartworm preventive products separately. Compliance with the extended-release moxidectin injectables ProHeart ® 6 and ProHeart ® 12 was higher than with monthly heartworm preventives, as they provide 6 months or a full year of protection with one single injection, respectively, and revenues remain in the veterinary clinics as injectable moxidectin cannot be sourced through online retailers.

BackgroundNational-level coverage estimates of maternal and child health (MCH) services mask district-level and community-level geographical inequities. The purpose of this study is to estimate grid-level coverage of essential MCH services in Nigeria using machine learning techniques.MethodsEssential MCH services in this study included antenatal care, facility-based delivery, childhood vaccinations and treatments of childhood illnesses. We estimated generalised additive models (GAMs) and gradient boosting regressions (GB) for each essential MCH service using data from five national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 and geospatial socioeconomic, environmental and physical characteristics. Using the best-performed model for each service, we map predicted coverage at 1 km2 and 5 km2 spatial resolutions in urban and rural areas, respectively.ResultsGAMs consistently outperformed GB models across a range of essential MCH services, demonstrating low systematic prediction errors. High-resolution maps revealed stark geographic disparities in MCH service coverage, especially between rural and urban areas and among different states and service types. Temporal trends indicated an overall increase in MCH service coverage from 2003 to 2018, although with variations by service type and location. Priority areas with lower coverage of both maternal and vaccination services were identified, mostly located in the northern parts of Nigeria.ConclusionHigh-resolution spatial estimates can guide geographic prioritisation and help develop better strategies for implementation plans, allowing limited resources to be targeted to areas with lower coverage of essential MCH services.

ObjectiveThis study aims to identify the individual and contextual factors consistently associated with utilisation of essential maternal and child health services in Nigeria across time and household geolocation.Design, setting and participantsSecondary data from five nationally representative household surveys conducted in Nigeria from 2003 to 2018 were used in this study. The study participants are women and children depending on essential maternal and child health (MCH) services.Outcome measuresThe outcome measures were indicators of whether participants used each of the following essential MCH services: antenatal care, facility-based delivery, modern contraceptive use, childhood immunisations (BCG, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis/Pentavalent and measles) and treatments of childhood illnesses (fever, cough and diarrhoea).MethodsWe estimated generalised additive models with logit links and smoothing terms for households’ geolocation and survey years.ResultsHigher maternal education and households’ wealth were significantly associated with utilisation of all types of essential MCH services (p<0.05). On the other hand, households with more children under 5 years of age and in poor communities were significantly less likely to use essential MCH services (p<0.05). Except for childhood immunisations, greater access to transport was positively associated with utilisation (p<0.05). Households with longer travel times to the most accessible health facility were less likely to use all types of essential MCH services (p<0.05), except modern contraceptive use and treatment of childhood fever and/or cough.ConclusionThis study adds to the evidence that maternal education and household wealth status are consistently associated with utilisation of essential MCH services across time and space. To increase utilisation of essential MCH services across different geolocations, interventions targeting poor communities and households with more children under 5 years of age should be appropriately designed. Moreover, additional interventions should prioritise to reduce inequities of essential MCH service utilisation between the wealth quantiles and between education status.

This study had two objectives: first, to examine the association between the history of heartworm preventive purchase compliance and the risk of positive heartworm tests, and second to preliminarily investigate the long-term cardiac outcomes of heartworm disease in dogs that had undergone successful adulticidal therapy. A retrospective cohort study design was used for both analyses, using anonymous transaction data from Covetrus (retrospective analysis 1) and anonymized medical records from Banfield Pet Hospital (retrospective analysis 2), both including canine patients across the USA. The first analysis examined the relative risk (RR) of a positive heartworm test in dogs with lapses in heartworm preventive purchase history compared to dogs that had no history of a preventive purchase six to 24 months prior to the test. In the second analysis, a long-term evaluation of structured diagnostic codes pertaining to cardiac diseases and risk assessment of outcomes was performed in dogs that had previously been successfully treated for heartworm disease compared to dogs that never had a positive heartworm test. 83,478 unique patients were included in the first analysis. Compared to 32,413 dogs with no history of a heartworm preventive purchase, 44,410 dogs with lapses in monthly preventive purchases had a reduced risk of testing positive for heartworm disease (RR = 0.36,  < 0.0001). Dogs (  = 6,655) with lapses in injectable heartworm preventive administration had a decreased risk of a positive test versus dogs with no preventive purchases (RR = 0.15,  < 0.0001), as well as versus dogs with lapses in monthly heartworm preventive purchases (RR = 0.28,  = 0.0024). In the second analysis, 6,138 patients treated for heartworm infection were found to have significantly (  < 0.001) elevated risks of right heart failure (RR = 3.59), left heart failure (RR = 1.83), or cardiomyopathy (RR = 2.79) compared to 4,022,752 patients that never had a positive heartworm test. This study highlights the importance of compliance with heartworm preventive guidelines, to reduce the risk of heartworm disease in dogs, which is not only a potentially life-threatening condition in the short-term but also associated with long-term negative cardiac outcomes.

Scholars have debated whether changes in digital environments have led to greater concentration or dispersal of scientific citations, but this debate has paid little attention to how other changes in the publication environment may impact the commonly used measures of inequality. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that a variety of inequality measures-including the Gini coefficient, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, and the percentage of articles ever cited-are substantially biased downward by increases in the total number of articles and citations. We propose and validate a resampling-based correction for this \"marginals bias\" and apply this correction to empirical data on scholarly citation distributions using Web of Science data covering four broad scientific fields (health, humanities, mathematics and the computer sciences, and the social sciences) from 1996 to 2014. We find that in each field the bulk of the apparent decline in citation inequality in recent years is an artifact of marginals bias, as are most apparent interfield differences in citation inequality. Researchers using inequality measures to compare citation distributions and other distributions with many cases at or near the zero-bound should interpret these metrics carefully and account for the influence of changing marginals.

For a long time after the seminal works of Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), the tendency of the macroeconomics literature on monetary policy and central banking was to deny that monetary policy could have durable real effects on the economy, either in the aggregate or distributionally. Instead, the monetary policy literature expended enormous effort on the question of whether political control of monetary policy could be made “time consistent.” The basic problem is that political leaders facing close elections may be tempted to use monetary policy to stimulate the economy and improve their chance of reelection. Knowing this, economic actors will price in future inflation and offset any gains that such policy “surprises” could generate. Political leaders thus would be better off if they could constrain themselves not to give in to monetary policy temptation—and the idea that all central banks should be independent of elected control was born (Rogoff 1985). Driven by this idea, scholars focused attention on (1) technical issues of determining optimal monetary policies; and (2) insulating policy makers from elected governments so they could get on with the business of implementing the same. Although undoubtedly clever and staggeringly influential, this approach generated two blind spots with serious consequences for real-world policy.