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Background Meta-analyses have become an essential tool in synthesizing evidence on clinical and epidemiological questions derived from a multitude of similar studies assessing the particular issue. Appropriate and accessible statistical software is needed to produce the summary statistic of interest. Methods Metaprop is a statistical program implemented to perform meta-analyses of proportions in Stata. It builds further on the existing Stata procedure metan which is typically used to pool effects (risk ratios, odds ratios, differences of risks or means) but which is also used to pool proportions. Metaprop implements procedures which are specific to binomial data and allows computation of exact binomial and score test-based confidence intervals. It provides appropriate methods for dealing with proportions close to or at the margins where the normal approximation procedures often break down, by use of the binomial distribution to model the within-study variability or by allowing Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilize the variances. Metaprop was applied on two published meta-analyses: 1) prevalence of HPV-infection in women with a Pap smear showing ASC-US; 2) cure rate after treatment for cervical precancer using cold coagulation. Results The first meta-analysis showed a pooled HPV-prevalence of 43% (95% CI: 38%-48%). In the second meta-analysis, the pooled percentage of cured women was 94% (95% CI: 86%-97%). Conclusion By using metaprop , no studies with 0% or 100% proportions were excluded from the meta-analysis. Furthermore, study specific and pooled confidence intervals always were within admissible values, contrary to the original publication, where metan was used.

The Scientific Committee (SC) reconfirms that the benchmark dose (BMD) approach is a scientifically more advanced method compared to the no‐observed‐adverse‐effect‐level (NOAEL) approach for deriving a Reference Point (RP). The major change compared to the previous Guidance (EFSA SC, 2017) concerns the Section 2.5, in which a change from the frequentist to the Bayesian paradigm is recommended. In the former, uncertainty about the unknown parameters is measured by confidence and significance levels, interpreted and calibrated under hypothetical repetition, while probability distributions are attached to the unknown parameters in the Bayesian approach, and the notion of probability is extended to reflect uncertainty of knowledge. In addition, the Bayesian approach can mimic a learning process and reflects the accumulation of knowledge over time. Model averaging is again recommended as the preferred method for estimating the BMD and calculating its credible interval. The set of default models to be used for BMD analysis has been reviewed and amended so that there is now a single set of models for quantal and continuous data. The flow chart guiding the reader step‐by‐step when performing a BMD analysis has also been updated, and a chapter comparing the frequentist to the Bayesian paradigm inserted. Also, when using Bayesian BMD modelling, the lower bound (BMDL) is to be considered as potential RP, and the upper bound (BMDU) is needed for establishing the BMDU/BMDL ratio reflecting the uncertainty in the BMD estimate. This updated guidance does not call for a general re‐evaluation of previous assessments where the NOAEL approach or the BMD approach as described in the 2009 or 2017 Guidance was used, in particular when the exposure is clearly lower (e.g. more than one order of magnitude) than the health‐based guidance value. Finally, the SC firmly reiterates to reconsider test guidelines given the wide application of the BMD approach. This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2022.EN-7585/full

Mathematical and statistical models have been essential tools in exploring the dynamics of viral load measures, understanding of the pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection and in assessment of the potency of antiretroviral therapies. However, this can be challenging due to the potential intra-couple correlation as well as the presence of multiple measurements collected from the same study site or cluster. A second complication arises due to censoring of the individual viral load measurements. The aim of this paper is to investigate the association between age and viral load of woman and man within a couple, while accounting for the presence of antiretroviral biomarkers in blood. An additional question of interest is how weakly or strongly are viral load of woman and man correlated, and how does this correlation depend on covariates as well. Joint marginal and random-effects models assuming constant and non-constant correlation were fitted using maximum likelihood while accounting for the left- and interval-censoring nature of the two viral loads. Findings show a weak positive correlation between the viral loads of women and men. Next, interaction between age and antiretroviral biomarker’s presence is only significant in the mean viral load for women, showing that the effect of age on a women’s viral load varies by the antiretroviral biomarker’s status. No age effect on the mean viral load for men is observed. These findings reinforce the need of interventions that stimulate adherence to antiretroviral therapy treatment once one or both partners are HIV infected as well as to monitor their viral load as they get older, especially the female partner.

A major outbreak of the Ebola virus occurred in 2014 in Sierra Leone. We investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the outbreak among districts in Sierra Leone. The stochastic discrete-time susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model is used, allowing for probabilistic movements from one compartment to another. Our model accounts for heterogeneity among districts by making use of a hierarchical approach. The transmission rates are considered time-varying. It is investigated whether or not incubation period, infectious period and transmission rates are different among districts. Estimation is done using the Bayesian formalism. The posterior estimates of the effective reproductive number were substantially different across the districts, with pronounced variability in districts with few cases of Ebola. The posterior estimates of the reproductive number at the district level varied between below 1.0 and 4.5, whereas at nationwide level it varied between below 1.0 and 2.5. The posterior estimate of the effective reproductive number reached a value below 1.0 around December. In some districts, the effective reproductive number pointed out for the persistence of the outbreak or for a likely resurgence of new cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD). The posterior estimates have shown to be highly sensitive to prior elicitation, mainly the incubation period and infectious period.

Background Despite declining trends maternal mortality remains an important public health issue in Mozambique. The delays to reach an appropriate health facility and receive care faced by woman with pregnancy related complications play an important role in the occurrence of these deaths. This study aims to examine the contribution of the delays in relation to the causes of maternal death in facilities in Mozambique. Methods Secondary analysis was performed on data from a national assessment on maternal and neonatal health that included in-depth maternal death reviews, using patient files and facility records with the most comprehensive information available. Statistical models were used to assess the association between delay to reach the health facility that provides emergency obstetric care (delay type II) and delay in receiving appropriate care once reaching the health facility providing emergency obstetric care (delay type III) and the cause of maternal death within the health facility. Results Data were available for 712 of 2,198 maternal deaths. Delay type II was observed in 40.4% of maternal deaths and delay type III in 14.2%.and 13.9% had both delays. Women who died of a direct obstetric complication were more likely to have experienced a delay type III than women who died due to indirect causes. Women who experienced delay type II were less likely to have also delay type III and vice versa. Conclusions The delays in reaching and receiving appropriate facility-based care for women facing pregnancy related complications in Mozambique contribute significantly to maternal mortality. Securing referral linkages and health facility readiness for rapid and correct patient management are needed to reduce the impact of these delays within the health system.

Monitoring and investigating temporal trends in antimicrobial data is a high priority for human and animal health authorities. Timely detection of temporal changes in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) can rely not only on monitoring and analyzing the proportion of resistant isolates based on the use of a clinical or epidemiological cut-off value, but also on more subtle changes and trends in the full distribution of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values. The nature of the MIC distribution is categorical and ordinal (discrete). In this contribution, we developed a particular family of multicategory logit models for estimating and modelling MIC distributions over time. It allows the detection of a multitude of temporal trends in the full discrete distribution, without any assumption on the underlying continuous distribution for the MIC values. The experimental ranges of the serial dilution experiments may vary across laboratories and over time. The proposed categorical model allows to estimate the MIC distribution over the maximal range of the observed experiments, and allows the observed ranges to vary across labs and over time. The use and performance of the model is illustrated with two datasets on AMR in Salmonella.

Monitoring and investigating temporal trends in antimicrobial data is a high priority for human and animal health authorities. Timely detection of temporal changes in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) can rely not only on monitoring and analyzing the proportion of resistant isolates based on the use of a clinical or epidemiological cut-off value, but also on more subtle changes and trends in the full distribution of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values. The nature of the MIC distribution is categorical and ordinal (discrete). In this contribution, we developed a particular family of multicategory logit models for estimating and modelling MIC distributions over time. It allows the detection of a multitude of temporal trends in the full discrete distribution, without any assumption on the underlying continuous distribution for the MIC values. The experimental ranges of the serial dilution experiments may vary across laboratories and over time. The proposed categorical model allows to estimate the MIC distribution over the maximal range of the observed experiments, and allows the observed ranges to vary across labs and over time. The use and performance of the model is illustrated with two datasets on AMR in Salmonella .

The Scientific Committee (SC) reconfirms that the benchmark dose (BMD) approach is a scientifically more advanced method compared to the NOAEL approach for deriving a Reference Point (RP). Most of the modifications made to the SC guidance of 2009 concern the section providing guidance on how to apply the BMD approach. Model averaging is recommended as the preferred method for calculating the BMD confidence interval, while acknowledging that the respective tools are still under development and may not be easily accessible to all. Therefore, selecting or rejecting models is still considered as a suboptimal alternative. The set of default models to be used for BMD analysis has been reviewed, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) has been introduced instead of the log‐likelihood to characterise the goodness of fit of different mathematical models to a dose–response data set. A flowchart has also been inserted in this update to guide the reader step‐by‐step when performing a BMD analysis, as well as a chapter on the distributional part of dose–response models and a template for reporting a BMD analysis in a complete and transparent manner. Finally, it is recommended to always report the BMD confidence interval rather than the value of the BMD. The lower bound (BMDL) is needed as a potential RP, and the upper bound (BMDU) is needed for establishing the BMDU/BMDL per ratio reflecting the uncertainty in the BMD estimate. This updated guidance does not call for a general re‐evaluation of previous assessments where the NOAEL approach or the BMD approach as described in the 2009 SC guidance was used, in particular when the exposure is clearly smaller (e.g. more than one order of magnitude) than the health‐based guidance value. Finally, the SC firmly reiterates to reconsider test guidelines given the expected wide application of the BMD approach. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2017.EN-1147/full

Maternal mortality remains very high in Mozambique, with estimates from 2015 showing a maternal mortality ratio of 489 deaths per 100,000 live births, even though the rates tend to decrease since 1990. Pregnancy related hemorrhage, gestational hypertension and diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS are amongst the leading causes of maternal death in Mozambique, and a significant number of these deaths occur within health facilities. Often, the analysis of data on maternal mortality involves the use of counts of maternal deaths as outcome variable. Previously we showed that a class of hierarchical zero-inflated models were very successful in dealing with overdispersion and clustered counts when analyzing data on maternal deaths and related risk factors within health facilities in Mozambique. This paper aims at providing additional insights over previous analyses and presents an extension of such models to account for spatial variation in a disease mapping framework of facility-based maternal mortality in Mozambique.

Proposals to update the harmonised monitoring and reporting of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) from a public health perspective in Salmonella, Campylobacter coli, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium and methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from food‐producing animals and derived meat in the EU are presented in this report, accounting for recent trends in AMR, data collection needs and new scientific developments. Phenotypic monitoring of AMR in bacterial isolates, using microdilution methods for testing susceptibility and interpreting resistance using epidemiological cut‐off values is reinforced, including further characterisation of those isolates of E. coli and Salmonella showing resistance to extended‐spectrum cephalosporins and carbapenems, as well as the specific monitoring of ESBL/AmpC/carbapenemase‐producing E. coli. Combinations of bacterial species, food‐producing animals and meat, as well as antimicrobial panels have been reviewed and adapted, where deemed necessary. Considering differing sample sizes, numerical simulations have been performed to evaluate the related statistical power available for assessing occurrence and temporal trends in resistance, with a predetermined accuracy, to support the choice of harmonised sample size. Randomised sampling procedures, based on a generic proportionate stratified sampling process, have been reviewed and reinforced. Proposals to improve the harmonisation of monitoring of prevalence, genetic diversity and AMR in MRSA are presented. It is suggested to complement routine monitoring with specific cross‐sectional surveys on MRSA in pigs and on AMR in bacteria from seafood and the environment. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of isolates obtained from the specific monitoring of ESBL/AmpC/carbapenemase‐producing E. coli is strongly advocated to be implemented, on a voluntary basis, over the validity period of the next legislation, with possible mandatory implementation by the end of the period; the gene sequences encoding for ESBL/AmpC/carbapenemases being reported to EFSA. Harmonised protocols for WGS analysis/interpretation and external quality assurance programmes are planned to be provided by the EU‐Reference Laboratory on AMR.