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"Aguilar, Glenn"
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Global greenhouse gas emissions from residential and commercial building materials and mitigation strategies to 2060
by
Steubing, Bernhard
,
Hernandez, Glenn Aguilar
,
Zhang, Chunbo
in
704/172/4081
,
704/844/682
,
Building materials
2021
Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020–2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 °C-compatible target.
Building construction causes large material-related emissions which present a serious decarbonization challenge. Here, the authors show that the building material sector could halve emissions by increasing efficiency until 2060 but even then its emissions would be twice as high as needed to meet the 1.5 °C target.
Journal Article
Spatial Analysis of Maritime Disasters in the Philippines: Distribution Patterns and Identification of High-Risk Areas
by
Alcedo, Jamaica
,
Tirol, Yasmin P.
,
Aguilar, Glenn D.
in
Accident data
,
Accidents
,
Archipelagoes
2025
Maritime accidents frequently occur in the Philippine archipelagic waters, often resulting in significant loss of life. These incidents highlight the urgent need for improvements in the country’s maritime safety systems. By utilising accident data from the Philippine Coast Guard and the GISIS IMO databases, spatial analytical approaches were employed to determine incident distribution patterns and resulted in an overall depiction of the likelihood component of risk across the country’s territorial waters. Kernel density and hotspot analysis revealed areas where incidents were concentrated and where statistically significant hotspots occurred. The Maxent tool was used to develop risk likelihood models for the incident locations using environmental rasters representing wind speed, significant wave height, depth, surface current, land distance and port distance. Model performance metrics including the AUC, TSS and Kappa were used to compare the two datasets and provide confidence on model robustness. Variable contribution figures showed that land distance is the most influential variable, with the majority of high-risk areas predominantly located near population centres. The resulting maps provide an intuitive and informative depiction of the characteristic patterns of maritime accidents in the country, identify areas of high risk requiring immediate attention and offer valuable insights to support strategies for improving and enhancing the country’s maritime safety.
Journal Article
Building resilience in high-tech supply chains
by
Böcher, Catrin
,
Aguilar-Hernandez, Glenn A.
,
Singhvi, Ankita
in
706/689/2788
,
706/703/253
,
Circular economy
2023
High-tech industries power the modern digital world, but their supply chains are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical and economic disruption. Urgent action is needed to improve supply-chain resilience.
Journal Article
Day-Time Roost Patterns of New and Previously Translocated North Island Brown Kiwi (Apteryx mantelli)
2023
Information on the day-time roost areas of North Island brown kiwi (NIBK) (Apteryx mantelli), particularly post-translocation, is limited. This study aimed to determine the day-time roost areas of newly translocated NIBK and compare these with birds that had established from a translocation in the previous year. Radio telemetry was used to monitor sub-adult NIBK in the first three weeks post-translocation simultaneously with birds released in the previous year. The data from 15 birds (nine translocated in 2014 and six translocated in 2013) were used to calculate the area over which roost sites were distributed. Areas were estimated using Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP, Ha) and 50 percentile kernel density estimation (KDE, Ha). No significant difference in MCP was determined between newly translocated 2014 birds (21.3 Ha, SE 7.92) and those translocated in 2013 (22.85 Ha, SE 10.84) or between KDE50 for 2013 birds (16.30 Ha, SE 7.44) compared with 2014 birds (20.66 Ha, SE 8.29). Within the first three weeks post-translocation, most of the 2014 birds remained within the vicinity of their release site, which may be due to a combination of suitable habitat/roost sites and the ‘anchoring’ effect of previously established 2013 birds. This study provides new information on roost areas of newly translocated NIBK and highlights the importance of post-translocation monitoring.
Journal Article
Assessing circularity interventions: a review of EEIOA-based studies
by
Aguilar-Hernandez, Glenn A
,
Rodrigues, João F D
,
Carlos Pablo Sigüenza-Sanchez
in
Circular economy
,
Classification
,
Economic theory
2018
Environmentally extended input–output analysis (EEIOA) can be applied to assess the economic and environmental implications of a transition towards a circular economy. In spite of the existence of several such applications, a systematic assessment of the opportunities and limitations of EEIOA to quantify the impacts of circularity strategies is currently missing. This article brings the current state of EEIOA-based studies for assessing circularity interventions up to date and is organised around four categories: residual waste management, closing supply chains, product lifetime extension, and resource efficiency. Our findings show that residual waste management can be modelled by increasing the amount of waste flows absorbed by the waste treatment sector. Closing supply chains can be modelled by adjusting input and output coefficients to reuse and recycling activities and specifying such actions in the EEIOA model if they are not explicitly presented. Product lifetime extension can be modelled by combining an adapted final demand with adjusted input coefficients in production. The impacts of resource efficiency can be modelled by lowering input coefficients for a given output. The major limitation we found was that most EEIOA studies are performed using monetary units, while circularity policies are usually defined in physical units. This problem affects all categories of circularity interventions, but is particularly relevant for residual waste management, due to the disconnect between the monetary and physical value of waste flows. For future research, we therefore suggest the incorporation of physical and hybrid tables in the assessment of circularity interventions when using EEIOA.
Journal Article
Spatial Distribution of Lichens in Metrosideros excelsa in Northern New Zealand Urban Forests
by
Benitez, Gladys N.
,
Blanchon, Dan
,
Aguilar, Glenn D.
in
Auckland
,
coasts
,
Community composition
2021
The spatial distribution of corticolous lichens on the iconic New Zealand pōhutukawa (Metrosideros excelsa) tree was investigated from a survey of urban parks and forests across the city of Auckland in the North Island of New Zealand. Lichens were identified from ten randomly selected trees at 20 sampling sites, with 10 sites classified as coastal and another 10 as inland sites. Lichen data were correlated with distance from sea, distance from major roads, distance from native forests, mean tree DBH (diameter at breast height) and the seven-year average of measured NO2 over the area. A total of 33 lichen species were found with coastal sites harboring significantly higher average lichen species per tree as well as higher site species richness. We found mild hotspots in two sites for average lichen species per tree and another two separate sites for species richness, with all hotspots at the coast. A positive correlation between lichen species richness and DBH was found. Sites in coastal locations were more similar to each other in terms of lichen community composition than they were to adjacent inland sites and some species were only found at coastal sites. The average number of lichen species per tree was negatively correlated with distance from the coast, suggesting that the characteristic lichen flora found on pōhutukawa may be reliant on coastal microclimates. There were no correlations with distance from major roads, and a slight positive correlation between NO2 levels and average lichen species per tree.
Journal Article
Predation and risk behaviors of free-roaming owned cats in Auckland, New Zealand via the use of animal-borne cameras
2019
Free-roaming cats are at increased risk of injuring themselves as well as other domestic and fauna species, yet relatively little is known about the frequency at which risk and predation behaviors occur in a typical day. In this study, cat risk, and predation behavioral information was collected using animal-borne video cameras and global positioning system (GPS) units that were attached to break-free cat collars. The observation period was one to three consecutive days for 37 convenience sampled free-roaming owned cats in Auckland, New Zealand. Video footage was manually reviewed and all predation and risk behavior events were recorded. These included stalking, pursuing, and seizing prey as well as altercations with other cats, ingesting harmful substances, and venturing into hazardous locations such as roads and storm drains. During the observation period, 23 of the 37 cats (62.2%) engaged in a total of 121 predation events. Of these, 40 resulted in successful prey capture with 18 of the 40 captures involving New Zealand native fauna species. Invertebrates were the most common taxa preyed upon (n = 55; 46%), followed by skinks (n = 8; 7%). No mammalian, avian or amphibian prey were captured and no cat took prey back to their residence. A total of 326 risk behaviors were observed for 32 out of the 37 cats (86.5%) with the most common being cats venturing onto the road (n = 132; 41%). Younger cats (aged 1–6 six years) engaged in significantly more predation and risk behaviors than older cats (aged 7 years and above). Sex, breed, number of cats in a household, and geographic location were not found to be predictors of cats’ participation in predation or risk behaviors. Given the high frequency of predation and risk behaviors in free-roaming owned cats, it may be beneficial to educate owners about strategies to minimize risk such as housing them indoors, containing them to their properties or monitoring their time spent outdoors.
Journal Article
The house crow (Corvus splendens): a threat to New Zealand?
2015
The house crow (Corvus splendens), a native of the Indian subcontinent, has shown a rapid expansion of habitat range across Eastern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Europe and Asia. It is an adaptable, gregarious commensal bird which is regarded globally as an important pest species due to its impacts on livestock, agricultural and horticultural crops and indigenous fauna and as a fecal contaminator of human environments and water resources. Two Maxent (v3.3.3k) models (A) with presence data in Australia and (B) with simulated entry data locations in New Zealand) and a third ArcGIS model (C) with environmental and social layers) are used to determine an overall suitability index and establish a niche-based model of the potential spatial distribution for C. splendens within New Zealand. The results show that New Zealand, particularly the northern regions of North Island, has suitable environments for the establishment of the house crow. In order of suitability Model B showed highest potential land area suitability (31.84%) followed by Model A (13.79%) and Model C (10.89%). The potential for further expansion of this bird’s invasive range is high and, if New Zealand is invaded, impacts are likely to be significant.
Publication
Spatial distribution of lichens in Metrosideros excelsa in northern New Zealand urban forests
2021
The spatial distribution of corticolous lichens on the iconic New Zealand pohutukawa (Metrosideros excelsa) tree was investigated from a survey of urban parks and forests across the city of Auckland in the North Island of New Zealand. Lichens were identified from ten randomly selected trees at 20 sampling sites, with 10 sites classified as coastal and another 10 as inland sites. Lichen data were correlated with distance from sea, distance from major roads, distance from native forests, mean tree DBH (diameter at breast height) and the seven-year average of measured NO2 over the area. A total of 33 lichen species were found with coastal sites harboring significantly higher average lichen species per tree as well as higher site species richness. We found mild hotspots in two sites for average lichen species per tree and another two separate sites for species richness, with all hotspots at the coast. A positive correlation between lichen species richness and DBH was found. Sites in coastal locations were more similar to each other in terms of lichen community composition than they were to adjacent inland sites and some species were only found at coastal sites. The average number of lichen species per tree was negatively correlated with distance from the coast, suggesting that the characteristic lichen flora found on pohutukawa may be reliant on coastal microclimates. There were no correlations with distance from major roads, and a slight positive correlation between NO2 levels and average lichen species per tree.
Journal Article
Comparison of species richness and frequency cover of forest floor plants and lichens in sites invaded and uninvaded by the invasive club moss Selaginella kraussiana (Kunze) A. Braun
by
Hayley R Nessia
,
Arnja R Dale
,
Nick W Waipara
in
Biological control
,
Club mosses
,
Forest floor
2014
This study investigated the impacts of invasion by the African club moss (Selaginella kraussiana (Kunze) A. Braun) on forest floor plants and lichens in warm-temperate native forest in New Zealand. Worldwide, some club mosses are known to be invasive, but there is little available information on their impacts. African club moss has naturalised in a number of countries, including New Zealand, and is suspected of having a negative effect on forest floor plants, but little has been published about the actual impact of this species on native plant communities. This study was carried out at Spragg Bush, Waitakere Ranges, New Zealand to compare plant species richness and frequency cover in adjacent forest floor plant communities with and without S. kraussiana using a paired experimental design. Sites invaded by S. kraussiana had significantly lower species richness than uninvaded sites, particularly the number of conifer and flowering plant species (seedlings). Sites invaded by S. kraussiana had a higher total frequency cover than uninvaded sites, but this was not significant. It was not clear if any particular species were affected by invasion of S. kraussiana, as the majority of species restricted to either the invaded or uninvaded sites were only present in one or two of the 26 sites. Multidimensional scaling of the data showed that S. kraussiana sites formed a cluster within a scatter of non-S. kraussiana sites. The possible implications of these results are discussed.
Journal Article