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State-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses have occurred at a frequency of approximately once per decade since the 1990s (1997, 2011 and 2020), despite the ODS concentration peaking in the mid-1990s. To understand this, CCMs were used to conduct 24 experiments with ODS and GHG concentrations set based on predicted values for future years; each experiment consisted of 500-member ensembles. The 50 ensemble members with the lowest column ozone in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere showed a clear ODS dependence associated with low temperatures and a strong westerly zonal mean zonal wind. Even with high GHG concentrations, several ensemble members showed extremely low spring column ozone in the Arctic when ODS concentration remained above the 1980–1985 level. Hence, ODS concentrations should be reduced to avoid large ozone losses in the presence of a stable Arctic polar vortex. The average of the lowest 50 members indicates that GHG increase towards the end of the twenty-first century will not cause worse Arctic ozone depletion.

It has been demonstrated that there is a globally unified linear relationship between the interannual variations of the fall-to-spring polar ozone accumulation and the winter-mean poleward eddy heat flux on the 100 hPa pressure surface. The foundation of this relationship is investigated using time-slice experiments on a chemistry–climate model with two levels of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). The features of the transport field are interpreted by decomposing the horizontal ozone flux caused by the residual circulation into contributing processes including the eddy heat flux with the aid of the transformed Eulerian-mean momentum equation followed by rearrangement of terms. The linear relationship between the interannual variations of the fall-to-spring ozone buildup integrated poleward and above a reference point P ref on a meridional plane and the poleward eddy heat flux during the corresponding period at P ref is realized for each hemisphere implying that the interhemispheric unification should be treated with caution. This relationship is interpreted using the fact that the interannual variation of poleward ozone transport in the upper stratosphere is captured well by the vertical convergence of the constituent-based Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux ( ), which is defined as the product of the constituent (ozone) mixing ratio and EP flux. The eddy momentum flux contributes to the meridional ozone transport in combination with the eddy heat flux in the form of the divergence of , although it is not responsible for realizing the linear relationship. The dependence of the linearity on the location of P ref and ODS levels is discussed.

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections.

An analysis of the relationship between zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere and zonal wind, temperature, and Eliassen and Palm (E‐P) flux in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter was performed using the CCSR/NIES chemistry‐climate model (CCM) and the Japanese 25 year Reanalysis (JRA‐25) data. The tropical zonal wind of the CCM was forced by observations, including the observational equatorial quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). The influence of the QBO on the Northern Hemisphere winter was estimated by a composite analysis with statistical significance. The analyses suggest that the difference in latitude of the critical line (zero value line of zonal wind) in the low latitudes around 10 hPa as well as 50 hPa between the easterly and westerly phases is related to the wave propagation and circulation over the whole depth of the stratosphere. The circulation anomaly is further related to the temperature anomaly at the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and the zonal wind anomaly at the high latitudes. These results suggest a mechanism through which 10 hPa QBO could influence the polar vortex, while the mechanism of 50 hPa QBO influence is unclear but the possibility is not ruled out. Key Points Manuscript describes the response of extratropical stratosphere to tropical QBO Detailed mechanism of how the response from the tropics enters the extratropics

Arctic ozone amount in winter to spring shows large year-to-year variation. This study investigates Arctic spring ozone in relation to the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/the 11-year solar cycle, using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and outputs of a chemistry climate model (CCM) during the period of 1979–2017. For this duration, we found that the composite mean of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude total ozone in the QBO-westerly (QBO-W)/solar minimum (Smin) phase is slightly smaller than those averaged for the QBO-W/Smax and QBO-E/Smax years in March. An analysis of a passive ozone tracer in the CCM simulation indicates that this negative anomaly is primarily caused by transport. The negative anomaly is consistent with a weakening of the residual mean downward motion in the polar lower stratosphere. The contribution of chemical processes estimated using the column amount difference between ozone and the passive ozone tracer is between 10–20% of the total anomaly in March. The lower ozone levels in the Arctic spring during the QBO-W/Smin years are associated with a stronger Arctic polar vortex from late winter to early spring, which is linked to the reduced occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming in the winter during the QBO-W/Smin years.

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

The internal variability and coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in CCMVal‐2 chemistry‐climate models are evaluated through analysis of the annular mode patterns of variability. Computation of the annular modes in long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The spatial and temporal structure of the models’ annular modes is then compared with that of reanalyses. As a whole, the models capture the key features of observed intraseasonal variability, including the sharp vertical gradients in structure between stratosphere and troposphere, the asymmetries in the seasonal cycle between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the coupling between the polar stratospheric vortices and tropospheric midlatitude jets. It is also found that the annular mode variability changes little in time throughout simulations of the 21st century. There are, however, both common biases and significant differences in performance in the models. In the troposphere, the annular mode in models is generally too persistent, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a bias similar to that found in CMIP3 coupled climate models. In the stratosphere, the periods of peak variance and coupling with the troposphere are delayed by about a month in both hemispheres. The relationship between increased variability of the stratosphere and increased persistence in the troposphere suggests that some tropospheric biases may be related to stratospheric biases and that a well‐simulated stratosphere can improve simulation of tropospheric intraseasonal variability.

Although solar activity may significantly impact the global environment and socioeconomic systems, the mechanisms for solar eruptions and the subsequent processes have not yet been fully understood. Thus, modern society supported by advanced information systems is at risk from severe space weather disturbances. Project for solar–terrestrial environment prediction (PSTEP) was launched to improve this situation through synergy between basic science research and operational forecast. The PSTEP is a nationwide research collaboration in Japan and was conducted from April 2015 to March 2020, supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan. By this project, we sought to answer the fundamental questions concerning the solar–terrestrial environment and aimed to build a next-generation space weather forecast system to prepare for severe space weather disasters. The PSTEP consists of four research groups and proposal-based research units. It has made a significant progress in space weather research and operational forecasts, publishing over 500 refereed journal papers and organizing four international symposiums, various workshops and seminars, and summer school for graduate students at Rikubetsu in 2017. This paper is a summary report of the PSTEP and describes the major research achievements it produced.

The final warming of the stratospheric polar vortex at the end of northern hemisphere winter is examined in ECMWF ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and an ensemble of chemistry climate models, using 20 years of data from each. In some years the final warming is found to occur first in the mid‐stratosphere, and in others to occur first in the upper stratosphere. The strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, refraction of planetary waves, and the altitudes at which the planetary waves break in the northern extratropics lead to this difference in the vertical profile of the final warming. Years in which the final warming occurs first in the mid‐stratosphere show, on average, a more negative NAO pattern in April mean sea level pressure than years in which the warming occurs first in the upper stratosphere. Thus, in the northern hemisphere, additional predictive skill of tropospheric climate in April can be gained from a knowledge of the vertical profile of the stratospheric final warming. Key Points Stratospheric final warmings can be used to improve predictability of the NAO Interannual variability is seen in vertical profile of NH final warmings Monthly mean data from GCMs reproduce these features well