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Aims/Introduction To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. Materials and Methods An age‐structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population‐based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. Results The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person‐years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus’ share of Oman’s national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020–2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions. Conclusions The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one‐third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman was projected to grow by 57% by 2050, whereas the incidence was projected to grow by 200% by 2050. By 2050, type 2 diabetes mellitus will consume 30% of Oman’s health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is driven by the high obesity level.

Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies, Protecting people from tobacco smoke, Offering help to quit tobacco use, Warning people about the dangers of tobacco, Enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship, and Raising taxes on all tobacco products. Successful and optimal implementation of Article 5.3 to eliminate the tactics of the tobacco industry in obstructing and undermining national and global tobacco control policies requires a multisectoral approach and deliberate collaboration among various stakeholder groups (e.g. government, civil society, and private sector). Since the WHO FCTC was signed by heads of states, it becomes the responsibility of the whole of government, not just the health ministry in each country, for its effective implementation. [...]Edition.

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) MPOWER measures are a set of highly effective tobacco control measures drawn from the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), designed to help countries reduce the prevalence of tobacco use. The WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic is published biennially to monitor global implementation of these measures. Aims: This review aimed to critically assess the status of MPOWER implementation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Methods: Data were collected for WHO Reports on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, focusing on the most recent 2019 edition. Regional population coverage figures were calculated using this data and population figures for the countries of the Region. Results: Between 2007 and 2018, for any MPOWER measure, there were 29 cases of countries progressing to the highest level of achievement; 23 cases of countries progressing to the intermediate levels from the lowest level; 12 cases of countries falling from the highest level; and 18 cases of countries falling to the lowest level. 57.7% of people are covered at the highest level for the monitoring measure; 63.7% for the smoke-free policies measure; 6.7% for the cessation measure; 60.7% for the health warnings measure; 37.4% for the mass media measure; 29.4% for the advertising bans measure; and 16.1% for the taxation measure. Conclusions: Countries must work comprehensively to improve tobacco control. Regional priorities should include lifting more people out of lowest level coverage for the health warnings and mass media measures, increasing taxation on tobacco products and improving access to cessation services. Keywords: tobacco, smoking, tobacco control, noncommunicable diseases, MPOWER

Background The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries relied, until recently, solely on import duties for tobacco products. The agreement for the introduction of an excise and value added tax (VAT) in 2016 and 2017, respectively, in most GCC countries, was a major breakthrough for public health. There is, however, ample room for improvement. Methods The study examines the outcomes of tax reforms, for both public health and public finances, based on the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and best practices worldwide. Tax simulations were performed using the WHO TaXSiM model. The study is based on data from Saudi Arabia, the only GCC country for which sufficient data existed. Results We recommend a stepwise tax reform, which involves increasing the current ad valorem excise tax rate, phasing out import duties keeping total tax share constant and introducing a minimum excise, and finally switching to a revenue-neutral specific excise. Specific excises must be adjusted for inflation and income increases. If implemented, cigarette tax reform simulations show that the recommended reforms would lead to a higher than 50% increase in cigarette prices, 16% reduction in cigarette sales and almost 50% increase in total cigarette tax revenue. A significant number of cigarette-related deaths would be averted. Conclusions The recommended tax reforms are expected to lead to significant improvements in both public health and tobacco tax revenues. Our results provide useful insights that are of relevance to the whole GGC region. The effectiveness of the reforms, however, requires a strong tax and customs administration, including the establishment of a good database to monitor and advance public health.

IntroductionTo estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman.Research design and methodsA deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050.ResultsIn the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO’s Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%–50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%–51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%–53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%–35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%–50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%–14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%–13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%–9.6% by 2050.ConclusionsIntervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.