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In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions. Dengue virus circulation was unusually low in Brazil in 2015-2018 following the emergence of Zika virus, but subsequently resurged causing large outbreaks with a lower mean age of infection. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to investigate the links between dengue dynamics and prior Zika infection.

Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.

The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting. Mosquitoes can transmit viruses that cause Zika, dengue and several other tropical diseases that affect humans. Zika virus usually causes mild symptoms, but it is thought that infection during pregnancy can lead to brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, where babies are born with an abnormally small head. Recent studies have shed light on how the Zika virus spread from Africa to reach South America, the Caribbean and North America. However, much less is known about the ecological factors that contribute to the spread of the virus within towns, cities and other local areas. In 2015, Brazil was struck by an outbreak of the Zika virus that led to an international public health emergency. Lourenço et al. used a mathematical model to explore the local conditions within Feira de Santana (a major urban center in Brazil) that contributed to the outbreak. The model took into account numerous factors, including temperature, humidity, rainfall and the mosquito life-cycle, which made it possible to reconstruct the history of the virus over the past three years and to make projections for the next decades. It revealed that most of the infections occured during 2015, with approximately 65% of the population infected. The incidences of new infections declined in 2016, as increasing numbers of local people had already been exposed to the virus and became immune. Temperature and humidity appeared to have played a critical role in sustaining the mosquito population carrying the Zika virus. Further analysis suggests that the risk of Zika virus causing microcephaly is very low – only 0.3–0.5% of the pregnant women in Feira de Santana who were infected with Zika gave birth to a baby with the condition. What therefore makes Zika a public health concern is the combination of a low risk with very high infection rates, which can affect a large number of pregnancies. This study will help researchers and policy makers to predict how the Zika virus will behave in the coming years. It also highlights the limitations and successes of the current system of surveillance. Moreover, it will help to identify critical time periods in the year when mosquito control strategies should be implemented to limit the spread of this virus. In future, this could help shape new local strategies to control Zika virus, dengue and other diseases carried by mosquitoes.

In recent years, an increasing number of outbreaks of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses have been reported in Asia and the Americas. Monitoring virus genotype diversity is crucial to understand the emergence and spread of outbreaks, both aspects that are vital to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Hence, we developed an efficient method to classify virus sequences with respect to their species and sub-species (i.e. serotype and/or genotype). This tool provides an easy-to-use software implementation of this new method and was validated on a large dataset assessing the classification performance with respect to whole-genome sequences and partial-genome sequences. Available online: http://krisp.org.za/tools.php.

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis, responsible for more than 1 million cases and 60,000 deaths every year. Among the 13 pathogenic species of the genus , serovars belonging to serogroup Icterohaemorrhagiae are considered to be the most virulent strains, and responsible for majority of the reported severe cases. Serovars Copenhageni and Icterohaemorrhagiae are major representatives of this serogroup and despite their public health relevance, little is known regarding the genetic differences between these two serovars. In this study, we analyzed the genome sequences of 67 isolates belonging to serovars Copenhageni and Icterohaemorrhagiae to investigate the influence of spatial and temporal variations on DNA sequence diversity. Out of the 1072 SNPs identified, 276 were in non-coding regions and 796 in coding regions. Indel analyses identified 258 indels, out of which 191 were found in coding regions and 67 in non-coding regions. Our phylogenetic analyses based on SNP dataset revealed that both serovars are closely related but showed distinct spatial clustering. However, likelihood ratio test of the indel data statistically confirmed the presence of a frameshift mutation within a homopolymeric tract of gene (related to LPS biosynthesis) in all the serovar Icterohaemorrhagiae strains but not in the Copenhageni strains. Therefore, this internal indel identified can genetically distinguish serovar Copenhageni from serovar Icterohaemorrhagiae with high discriminatory power. To our knowledge, this is the first study to identify global sequence variations (SNPs and Indels) in serovars Copenhageni and Icterohaemorrhagiae.

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently causing epidemics of unprecedented scope in endemic settings and expanding to new geographical areas. It is therefore critical to track this virus using genomic surveillance. However, the complex patterns of viral genomic diversity make it challenging to use the existing genotype classification system. Here, we propose adding 2 sub-genotypic levels of virus classification, named major and minor lineages. These lineages have high thresholds for phylogenetic distance and clade size, rendering them stable between phylogenetic studies. We present assignment tools to show that the proposed lineages are useful for regional, national, and subnational discussions of relevant DENV diversity. Moreover, the proposed lineages are robust to classification using partial genome sequences. We provide a standardized neutral descriptor of DENV diversity with which we can identify and track lineages of potential epidemiological and/or clinical importance. Information about our lineage system, including methods to assign lineages to sequence data and propose new lineages, can be found at: dengue-lineages.org .

São Paulo, a densely inhabited state in southeast Brazil that contains the fourth most populated city in the world, recently experienced its largest yellow fever virus (YFV) outbreak in decades. YFV does not normally circulate extensively in São Paulo, so most people were unvaccinated when the outbreak began. Surveillance in non-human primates (NHPs) is important for determining the magnitude and geographic extent of an epizootic, thereby helping to evaluate the risk of YFV spillover to humans. Data from infected NHPs can give more accurate insights into YFV spread than when using data from human cases alone. To contextualise human cases, identify epizootic foci and uncover the rate and direction of YFV spread in São Paulo, we generated and analysed virus genomic data and epizootic case data from NHPs in São Paulo. We report the occurrence of three spatiotemporally distinct phases of the outbreak in São Paulo prior to February 2018. We generated 51 new virus genomes from YFV positive cases identified in 23 different municipalities in São Paulo, mostly sampled from NHPs between October 2016 and January 2018. Although we observe substantial heterogeneity in lineage dispersal velocities between phylogenetic branches, continuous phylogeographic analyses of generated YFV genomes suggest that YFV lineages spread in São Paulo at a mean rate of approximately 1km per day during all phases of the outbreak. Viral lineages from the first epizootic phase in northern São Paulo subsequently dispersed towards the south of the state to cause the second and third epizootic phases there. This alters our understanding of how YFV was introduced into the densely populated south of São Paulo state. Our results shed light on the sylvatic transmission of YFV in highly fragmented forested regions in São Paulo state and highlight the importance of continued surveillance of zoonotic pathogens in sentinel species.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the balance between transfer ribonucleic acid (tRNA) supply and demand in retrovirus-infected cells, seeking the best targets for antiretroviral therapy based on the hypothetical tRNA Inhibition Therapy (TRIT). Codon usage and tRNA gene data were retrieved from public databases. Based on logistic principles, a therapeutic score (T-score) was calculated for all sense codons, in each retrovirus-host system. Codons that are critical for viral protein translation, but not as critical for the host, have the highest T-score values. Theoretically, inactivating the cognate tRNA species should imply a severe reduction of the elongation rate during viral mRNA translation. We developed a method to predict tRNA species critical for retroviral protein synthesis. Four of the best TRIT targets in HIV-1 and HIV-2 encode Large Hydrophobic Residues (LHR), which have a central role in protein folding. One of them, codon CUA, is also a TRIT target in both HTLV-1 and HTLV-2. Therefore, a drug designed for inactivating or reducing the cytoplasmatic concentration of tRNA species with anticodon TAG could attenuate significantly both HIV and HTLV protein synthesis rates. Inversely, replacing codons ending in UA by synonymous codons should increase the expression, which is relevant for DNA vaccine design.

Zika virus (ZIKV), an emerging virus belonging to the Flaviviridae family, causes severe neurological clinical complications and has been associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome, fetal abnormalities known collectively as congenital Zika syndrome, and microcephaly. Studies have shown that ZIKV infection can alter cellular metabolism, directly affecting neural development. Brain growth requires controlled cellular metabolism, which is essential for cell proliferation and maturation. However, little is known regarding the metabolic profile of ZIKV-infected newborns and possible associations related to microcephaly. Furthering the understanding surrounding underlying mechanisms is essential to developing personalized treatments for affected individuals. Thus, metabolomics, the study of the metabolites produced by or modified in an organism, constitutes a valuable approach in the study of complex diseases. Here, 26 serum samples from ZIKV-positive newborns with or without microcephaly, as well as controls, were analyzed using an untargeted metabolomics approach involving gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Significant alterations in essential and non-essential amino acids, as well as carbohydrates (including aldohexoses, such as glucose or mannose) and their derivatives (urea and pyruvic acid), were observed in the metabolic profiles analyzed. Our results provide insight into relevant metabolic processes in patients with ZIKV and microcephaly.

Background Human T-cell Leukemia Virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is the etiological agent of tropical spastic paraparesis/HTLV-associated myelopathy (HAM/TSP) that can be identified in around 0.25%–3.8% of the infected population. Disease progression can be monitored by the proviral load and may depend on genetic factors, however, it is not well understood why some HTLV-1 infected people develop the disease while others do not. The present study attempts to assess the molecular diversity of gp46 glycoprotein in HAM/TSP patients and Health Carrier (HC) individuals. Methods Blood samples were collected from 10 individuals, and DNA was extracted from PBMCs to measure the HTLV-1 proviral load. The gp46 coding sequences were amplified PCR, cloned and sequenced. The molecular characterization was performed using bioinformatics tools. Results The median HTLV-1 proviral load of HC (n = 5) and HAM/TSP (n = 5) patients was similar (average 316,227 copies/10 6 PBMCs). The gp46 molecular characterization of 146 clones (70 HC and 76 HAM/TSP) revealed an overall diversity, within HC and HAM/TSP clones, of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Five frequent mutations were detected among groups (HAM/TSP and HC clone sequences). A single amino acid (aa) substitution (S35L) was exclusive for the HC group, and three gp46 substitutions (F14S, N42H, G72S) were exclusive for the HAM/TSP group. The remaining frequent mutation (V247I) was present in both groups (p = 0.0014). The in silico protein analysis revealed that the mutated alleles F14S and N42H represent more hydrophilic and flexible protein domains that are likely to be less antigenic. The Receptor Binding Domain is quite variable in the HAM/TSP group. Two other domains (aa 53–75 and 175–209) that contain multiple linear T-cell epitopes showed genetic diversity in both HAM/TSP and HC groups. Further analysis revealed 27 and 13 T-cell epitopes for class I HLA alleles and class II HLA alleles, when analyzing the entire gp46. Conclusions The most common gp46 mutations were not associated clinical status because they were found in only one individual, except for the V247I mutation, that was found at viral clones from HAM/TSP ad HC individuals. Because of this, we cannot associate any of the gp46 found mutations with the clinical profile.