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"Allen, Kathryn"
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A kiss means I love you
Simple text and color photographs explore the meanings of different actions, expressions, words, and sounds, from a kiss and a clap to a wave and a yawn.
Book
Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. Despite the SAM’s importance, paleoclimate reconstructions disagree on its variability and trends over the Common Era, which may be linked to variability in SAM teleconnections and the influence of specific proxies. Here, we use data assimilation with a multi-model prior to reconstruct the SAM over the last 2000 years using temperature and drought-sensitive climate proxies. Our method does not assume a stationary relationship between the SAM and the proxy records and allows us to identify critical paleoclimate records and quantify reconstruction uncertainty through time. We find no evidence for a forced response in SAM variability prior to the 20th century. We do find the modern positive trend falls outside the 2
σ
range of the prior 2000 years at multidecadal time scales, supporting the inference that the SAM’s positive trend over the last several decades is a response to anthropogenic climate change.
This study uses data assimilation to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode over the last 2000 years. The authors find that the mode’s history reflects natural climate variability, except for the most-recent positive trend
Journal Article
Show me happy
Photographs depict children enacting such basic social concepts as sharing, helping, and playing as well as expressing themselves through gestures and actions.
Book
Human‐Driven Fire Regime Change in the Seasonal Tropical Forests of Central Vietnam
To better understand fire regimes and their relation to climate in the seasonal tropical forests of continental Southeast Asia, we developed the first multi‐century tree‐ring based fire history chronology for the region. The chronology included 776 fire scars collected at Bidoup NuiBa National Park (BNNP) in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and spans the period 1636–2020. Fires were recorded in 116 years, representing 47% of the years covered by the 249‐year period between the first fire scar (1772) and the last (2020). While only 9% of years within the sampled BNNP forests experienced fires before 1905, 70% recorded fires between 1906 and 1963 and 90% showed evidence of fire after 1963. Fire occurrence was highly correlated with climate indices (wet season Nino 3.4 and dry season regional Palmer Drought Severity Index) during the period 1906–1963, but showed no significant correlation after 1963. Our fire reconstruction from BNNP suggests that the fire regime has shifted from one driven primarily by climate to one in which human activities dominate the occurrence of fire within these seasonal tropical landscapes. Plain Language Summary In many parts of the world fires shape forest structure, composition, and dynamics. While fire regimes and their long‐term impacts on forests have been described for many temperate forests, we know little about the impact of fire in tropical forests. We used tree rings from two tropical conifers (Pinus kesiya and Keteleeria evelyniana) to develop the first multi‐century fire chronology from continental southeast Asia. We used it to reconstruct over 200 years of fire activity in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. We found that fire occurrence in the region was associated with climatic conditions prior to 1963. However, since then an increase in human settlement and activities within these landscapes has led to a massive increase in fire frequency and extent. Our tree‐ring based fire‐history reconstruction shows that the overwhelming pressure of human ignitions have effectively eliminated climate as a factor limiting fires in these landscapes. Key Points First annually resolved, multi‐century fire history reconstruction from monsoon Asia Seasonal and interannual drought conditions have historically been an important driver of fire activity in the region In the 1960s the fire regime shifted from patchy to landscape‐scale occurrence, which was associated with a sudden increase in the regional human population
Journal Article
The Eagle has landed : 50 years of lunar science fiction
\"In celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing, the endlessly-mysterious moon is explored in this reprint short science fiction anthology from award-winning editor and anthologist Neil Clarke ... On July 20, 1969, mankind made what had only years earlier seemed like an impossible leap forward: when Apollo 11 became the first manned mission to land on the moon, and Neil Armstrong the first person to step foot on the lunar surface. While there have only been a handful of new missions since, the fascination with our planet's satellite continues, and generations of writers and artists have imagined the endless possibilities of lunar life. From adventures in the vast gulf of space between the earth and the moon, to journeys across the light face to the dark side, to the establishment of permanent residences on its surface, science fiction has for decades given readers bold and forward-thinking ideas about our nearest interstellar neighbor and what it might mean to humankind, both now and in our future. [This book] collects the best stories written in the fifty years since mankind first stepped foot on the lunar surface, serving as a shining reminder that the moon is and always has been our most visible and constant example of all the infinite possibility of the wider universe\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Compound climate extremes driving recent sub-continental tree mortality in northern Australia have no precedent in recent centuries
Compound climate extremes (CCEs) can have significant and persistent environmental impacts on ecosystems. However, knowledge of the occurrence of CCEs beyond the past ~ 50 years, and hence their ecological impacts, is limited. Here, we place the widespread 2015–16 mangrove dieback and the more recent 2020 inland native forest dieback events in northern Australia into a longer historical context using locally relevant palaeoclimate records. Over recent centuries, multiple occurrences of analogous antecedent and coincident climate conditions associated with the mangrove dieback event were identified in this compilation. However, rising sea level—a key antecedent condition—over the three decades prior to the mangrove dieback is unprecedented in the past 220 years. Similarly, dieback in inland forests and savannas was associated with a multi-decadal wetting trend followed by the longest and most intense drought conditions of the past 250 years, coupled with rising temperatures. While many ecological communities may have experienced CCEs in past centuries, the addition of new environmental stressors associated with varying aspects of global change may exceed their thresholds of resilience. Palaeoclimate compilations provide the much-needed longer term context to better assess frequency and changes in some types of CCEs and their environmental impacts.
Journal Article
Tree growth responses to temporal variation in rainfall differ across a continental-scale climatic gradient
Globally, many biomes are being impacted by significant shifts in total annual rainfall as well as increasing variability of rainfall within and among years. Such changes can have potentially large impacts on plant productivity and growth, but remain largely unknown, particularly for much of the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate how growth of the widespread conifer, Callitris columellaris varied with inter-annual variation in the amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall events over the last century and between semi-arid (<500 mm mean annual rainfall) and tropical (>800 mm mean annual rainfall) biomes in Australia. We used linear and polynomial regression models to investigate the strength and shape of the relationships between growth (ring width) and rainfall. At semi-arid sites, growth was strongly and linearly related to rainfall amount, regardless of differences in the seasonality and intensity of rainfall. The linear shape of the relationship indicates that predicted future declines in mean rainfall will have proportional negative impacts on long-term tree growth in semi-arid biomes. In contrast, growth in the tropics showed a weak and asymmetrical (‘concave-down’) response to rainfall amount, where growth was less responsive to changes in rainfall amount at the higher end of the rainfall range (>1250 mm annual rainfall) than at the lower end (<1000 mm annual rainfall). The asymmetric relationship indicates that long-term growth rates of Callitris in the tropics are more sensitive to increased inter-annual variability of rainfall than to changes in the mean amount of rainfall. Our findings are consistent with observations that the responses of vegetation to changes in the mean or variability of rainfall differ between mesic and semi-arid biomes. These results highlight how contrasting growth responses of a widespread species across a hydroclimatic gradient can inform understanding of potential sensitivity of different biomes to climatic variability and change.
Journal Article
The role of extreme rain events in driving tree growth across a continental‐scale climatic range in Australia
Rainfall regimes in many parts of the world have become increasingly dominated by fewer, but more extreme, rainfall events. Understanding how tree growth responds to changes in the frequency and intensity of rain events is critical to predicting how climate change will impact on forests and woodlands in the future. In this study, we used five tree‐ring records of the native Australian conifer Callitris columellaris that span a large (> 20°) latitudinal and climatic gradient from the mesic (tropical) north to the xeric (semi‐arid) south of Australia to investigate how inter‐annual and spatial variation in the delivery of rainfall (the intensity and frequency of rain events) influences tree growth. In semi‐arid biomes (~300–400 mm rainfall annually), tree growth is most strongly related to the amount of rainfall from heavy (> 75th percentile) rain days or the number of extreme (> 90th percentile) rain days, regardless of differences in the seasonal distribution and average intensity of rainfall among sites. Our findings also indicate that there is likely a minimum threshold amount of daily rainfall (~5 mm) that is required to stimulate tree growth in the semi‐arid zone. In contrast, in the tropics (> 800 mm annual rainfall), inter‐annual variation in growth is best explained by total growing season rainfall or the number of rain days > ~5 mm (~50th percentile of rain days) rather than extreme rainfall. Our findings indicate that not all rain events are important for driving tree growth, which has important implications for interpreting climatic signals in tree rings. Our findings also indicate that projected increases in the intensity of extreme rain events are likely to have contrasting impacts on tree growth across biomes, with greater and positive impacts on growth in semi‐arid biomes and potentially negative impacts on growth in tropical biomes of Australia.
Journal Article
Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions
Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September) and warm (October–March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought, 1895–1903; World War II Drought, 1939–1945; and the Millennium Drought, 1997–2005), we find that the historically documented Settlement Drought (1790–1793), Sturt's Drought (1809–1830) and the Goyder Line Drought (1861–1866) actually had more regionalised patterns and reduced spatial extents. This seasonal rainfall reconstruction provides a new opportunity to understand Australian rainfall variability by contextualising severe droughts and recent trends in Australia.
Journal Article
Impact of minimum unit pricing on alcohol-related hospital outcomes: systematic review
ObjectiveTo determine the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on the primary outcome of alcohol-related hospitalisation, and secondary outcomes of length of stay, hospital mortality and alcohol-related liver disease in hospital.DesignDatabases MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, APA Psycinfo, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Reviews were searched from 1 January 2011 to 11 November 2022. Inclusion criteria were studies evaluating the impact of minimum pricing policies, and we excluded non-minimum pricing policies or studies without alcohol-related hospital outcomes. The Effective Public Health Practice Project tool was used to assess risk of bias, and the Bradford Hill Criteria were used to infer causality for outcome measures.SettingMUP sets a legally required floor price per unit of alcohol and is estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable healthcare burden.ParticipantAll studies meeting inclusion criteria from any countryInterventionMinimum pricing policy of alcoholPrimary and secondary outcome measuresResults22 studies met inclusion criteria; 6 natural experiments and 16 modelling studies. Countries included Australia, Canada, England, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, South Africa and Wales. Modelling studies estimated that MUP could reduce alcohol-related admissions by 3%–10% annually and the majority of real-world studies demonstrated that acute alcohol-related admissions responded immediately and reduced by 2%–9%, and chronic alcohol-related admissions lagged by 2–3 years and reduced by 4%–9% annually. Minimum pricing could target the heaviest consumers from the most deprived groups who tend to be at greatest risk of alcohol harms, and in so doing has the potential to reduce health inequalities. Using the Bradford Hill Criteria, we inferred a ‘moderate-to-strong’ causal link that MUP could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation.ConclusionsNatural studies were consistent with minimum pricing modelling studies and showed that this policy could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation and health inequalities.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021274023.
Journal Article