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Modern reliance on fossil fuels has ushered in extreme temperatures globally and abnormal precipitation patterns in many regions. Although the climate is changing rapidly, other agents of natural selection such as photoperiod remain constant. This decoupling of previously reliable environmental cues shifts adaptive landscapes, favors novel suites of traits and likely increases the extinction risk of local populations. Here, I examine the fitness consequences of changing climates. Meta-analyses demonstrate that simulated future climates depress viability and fecundity components of fitness for native plant species in the short term, which could reduce population growth rates. Contracting populations that cannot adapt or adjust plastically to new climates might not be capable of producing sufficient migrants to track changing conditions.

Plant–herbivore interactions have evolved in response to coevolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO₂ concentrations, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater food consumption by herbivores. Additionally, elevated CO₂ delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO₂ and drought stress increase foliar herbivory. Our meta-analysis also suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO₂, temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant–herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010–2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.

Integrating knowledge from physiological ecology, evolutionary biology, phylogenetics, and paleobiology provides novel insights into factors driving plant physiological responses to both past and future climate change.

Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, yet we know little about which environmental factors contribute to interspecific variation in responses and their effects on fitness. We integrate data from a 43 yr record of first flowering for six species in subalpine Colorado meadows with a 3 yr snow manipulation experiment on the perennial forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. Variation in responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species reproducing faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods relative to later-flowering species. Early snow-removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Our findings suggest that climate change is decoupling historical combinations of photoperiod and temperature and outpacing phenological changes for our focal species. Accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the factors driving shifts in phenology.

Improving the efficiency of root systems should result in crop varieties with better yields, requiring fewer chemical inputs, and that can grow in harsher environments. Little is known about the genetic factors that condition root growth because of roots’ complex shapes, the opacity of soil, and environmental influences. We designed a 3D root imaging and analysis platform and used it to identify regions of the rice genome that control several different aspects of root system growth. The results of this study should inform future efforts to enhance root architecture for agricultural benefit. Identification of genes that control root system architecture in crop plants requires innovations that enable high-throughput and accurate measurements of root system architecture through time. We demonstrate the ability of a semiautomated 3D in vivo imaging and digital phenotyping pipeline to interrogate the quantitative genetic basis of root system growth in a rice biparental mapping population, Bala × Azucena. We phenotyped >1,400 3D root models and >57,000 2D images for a suite of 25 traits that quantified the distribution, shape, extent of exploration, and the intrinsic size of root networks at days 12, 14, and 16 of growth in a gellan gum medium. From these data we identified 89 quantitative trait loci, some of which correspond to those found previously in soil-grown plants, and provide evidence for genetic tradeoffs in root growth allocations, such as between the extent and thoroughness of exploration. We also developed a multivariate method for generating and mapping central root architecture phenotypes and used it to identify five major quantitative trait loci ( r 2 = 24–37%), two of which were not identified by our univariate analysis. Our imaging and analytical platform provides a means to identify genes with high potential for improving root traits and agronomic qualities of crops.

Intraspecific variation in flower color is often attributed to pollinator-mediated selection, yet this mechanism cannot explain flower color polymorphisms in self-pollinating species. Indirect selection mediated via biotic and abiotic stresses could maintain flower color variation in these systems. The selfing forb, Boechera stricta, typically displays white flowers, but some individuals produce purple flowers. We quantified environmental correlates of flower color in natural populations. To disentangle plasticity from genotypic variation, we performed a multiyear field experiment in five gardens. In controlled conditions, we evaluated herbivore preferences and the effects of drought stress and soil pH on flower color expression. In natural populations, purple-flowered individuals experienced lower foliar herbivory than did their white-flowered counterparts. This pattern also held in the common gardens. Additionally, low-elevation environments induced pigmented flowers (plasticity), and the likelihood of floral pigmentation decreased with source elevation of maternal families (genetic cline). Viability selection favored families with pigmented flowers. In the laboratory, herbivores exerted greater damage on tissue derived from white- vs purple-flowered individuals. Furthermore, drought induced pigmentation in white-flowered lineages, and white-flowered plants had a fecundity advantage in the well-watered control. Flower color variation in selfing species is probably maintained by herbivory, drought stress, and other abiotic factors that vary spatially.

Abstract Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change. The environment can vary at small spatial scales, such that neighbouring plants can grow under different resource levels and experience different degrees of competition. This fine-grained biotic and abiotic variation in the environment could favour the maintenance of genetic diversity within populations. Climate change is rapidly altering complex suites of environments to which natural populations have adapted. Here, we discuss the influence of the micro-environment on physiology, adaptation and plasticity in the context of novel and rapidly changing environments. We consider the role of micro-environments as paleorefugia during previous climatic shifts, and the potential of existing micro-environmental variation to serve as refugia under contemporary climate change.

Natural populations exhibit substantial variation in quantitative traits. A quantitative trait is typically defined by its mean and variance, and to date most genetic mapping studies focus on loci altering trait means but not (co)variances. For single traits, the control of trait variance across genetic backgrounds is referred to as genetic canalization. With multiple traits, the genetic covariance among different traits in the same environment indicates the magnitude of potential genetic constraint, while genotype-by-environment interaction (GxE) concerns the same trait across different environments. While some have suggested that these three attributes of quantitative traits are different views of similar concepts, it is not yet clear, however, whether they have the same underlying genetic mechanism. Here, we detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing the (co)variance of phenological traits in six distinct environments in Boechera stricta, a close relative of Arabidopsis. We identified nFT as the QTL altering the magnitude of phenological trait canalization, genetic constraint, and GxE. Both the magnitude and direction of nFT's canalization effects depend on the environment, and to our knowledge, this reversibility of canalization across environments has not been reported previously. nFT's effects on trait covariance structure (genetic constraint and GxE) likely result from the variable and reversible canalization effects across different traits and environments, which can be explained by the interaction among nFT, genomic backgrounds, and environmental stimuli. This view is supported by experiments demonstrating significant nFT by genomic background epistatic interactions affecting phenological traits and expression of the candidate gene, FT. In contrast to the well-known canalization gene Hsp90, the case of nFT may exemplify an alternative mechanism: Our results suggest that (at least in traits with major signal integrators such as flowering time) genetic canalization, genetic constraint, and GxE may have related genetic mechanisms resulting from interactions among major QTL, genomic backgrounds, and environments.

The rapid pace of contemporary environmental change puts many species at risk, especially rare species constrained by limited capacity to adapt or migrate due to low genetic diversity and/or fitness. But the ability to acclimate can provide another way to persist through change. We compared the capacity of rare Boechera perstellata (Braun's rockcress) and widespread B. laevigata to acclimate to change. We investigated the phenotypic plasticity of growth, biomass allocation, and leaf morphology of individuals of B. perstellata and B. laevigata propagated from seed collected from several populations throughout their ranges in a growth chamber experiment to assess their capacity to acclimate. Concurrently, we assessed the genetic diversity of sampled populations using 17 microsatellite loci to assess evolutionary potential. Plasticity was limited in both rare B. perstellata and widespread B. laevigata, but differences in the plasticity of root traits between species suggest that B. perstellata may have less capacity to acclimate to change. In contrast to its widespread congener, B. perstellata exhibited no plasticity in response to temperature and weaker plastic responses to water availability. As expected, B. perstellata also had lower levels of observed heterozygosity than B. laevigata at the species level, but population‐level trends in diversity measures were inconsistent due to high heterogeneity among B. laevigata populations. Overall, the ability of phenotypic plasticity to broadly explain the rarity of B. perstellata versus commonness of B. laevigata is limited. However, some contextual aspects of our plasticity findings compared with its relatively low genetic variability may shed light on the narrow range and habitat associations of B. perstellata and suggest its vulnerability to climate warming due to acclimatory and evolutionary constraints. The question of why some species are rare while others are common is an enduring one with implications for ecological theory and the conservation of biodiversity. Our research reveals some limited differences in plasticity between rare B. perstellata and widespread B. laevigata that are dependent on various abiotic factors. These differences could help to explain the narrow range and habitat specificity of B. perestellata, while highlighting its potential vulnerability to future environmental change.