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151 result(s) for "Andrew K. Skidmore"
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Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modelling?
Species data held in museum and herbaria, survey data and opportunistically observed data are a substantial information resource. A key challenge in using these data is the uncertainty about where an observation is located. This is important when the data are used for species distribution modelling (SDM), because the coordinates are used to extract the environmental variables and thus, positional error may lead to inaccurate estimation of the species–environment relationship. The magnitude of this effect is related to the level of spatial autocorrelation in the environmental variables. Using local spatial association can be relevant because it can lead to the identification of the specific occurrence records that cause the largest drop in SDM accuracy. Therefore, in this study, we tested whether the SDM predictions are more affected by positional uncertainty originating from locations that have lower local spatial association in their predictors. We performed this experiment for Spain and the Netherlands, using simulated datasets derived from well known species distribution models (SDMs). We used the K statistic to quantify the local spatial association in the predictors at each species occurrence location. A probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulations was employed to introduce the error in the species locations. The results revealed that positional uncertainty in species occurrence data at locations with low local spatial association in predictors reduced the prediction accuracy of the SDMs. We propose that local spatial association is a way to identify the species occurrence records that require treatment for positional uncertainty. We also developed and present a tool in the R environment to target observations that are likely to create error in the output from SDMs as a result of positional uncertainty.
Deep learning enables satellite-based monitoring of large populations of terrestrial mammals across heterogeneous landscape
New satellite remote sensing and machine learning techniques offer untapped possibilities to monitor global biodiversity with unprecedented speed and precision. These efficiencies promise to reveal novel ecological insights at spatial scales which are germane to the management of populations and entire ecosystems. Here, we present a robust transferable deep learning pipeline to automatically locate and count large herds of migratory ungulates (wildebeest and zebra) in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem using fine-resolution (38-50 cm) satellite imagery. The results achieve accurate detection of nearly 500,000 individuals across thousands of square kilometers and multiple habitat types, with an overall F1-score of 84.75% (Precision: 87.85%, Recall: 81.86%). This research demonstrates the capability of satellite remote sensing and machine learning techniques to automatically and accurately count very large populations of terrestrial mammals across a highly heterogeneous landscape. We also discuss the potential for satellite-derived species detections to advance basic understanding of animal behavior and ecology. This study presents a deep learning pipeline to automatically locate and count large herds of migratory ungulates (wildebeest and zebra) in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem using fine resolution satellite imagery. The results achieve accurate detection of nearly 500,000 individuals across thousands of square kilometers and multiple habitat types.
Joint Effects of Habitat Heterogeneity and Species’ Life-History Traits on Population Dynamics in Spatially Structured Landscapes
Both habitat heterogeneity and species' life-history traits play important roles in driving population dynamics, yet there is little scientific consensus around the combined effect of these two factors on populations in complex landscapes. Using a spatially explicit agent-based model, we explored how interactions between habitat spatial structure (defined here as the scale of spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality) and species life-history strategies (defined here by species environmental tolerance and movement capacity) affect population dynamics in spatially heterogeneous landscapes. We compared the responses of four hypothetical species with different life-history traits to four landscape scenarios differing in the scale of spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality. The results showed that the population size of all hypothetical species exhibited a substantial increase as the scale of spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality increased, yet the pattern of population increase was shaped by species' movement capacity. The increasing scale of spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality promoted the resource share of individuals, but had little effect on the mean mortality rate of individuals. Species' movement capacity also determined the proportion of individuals in high-quality cells as well as the proportion of individuals experiencing competition in response to increased spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality. Positive correlations between the resource share of individuals and the proportion of individuals experiencing competition indicate that large-scale spatial autocorrelation in habitat quality may mask the density-dependent effect on populations through increasing the resource share of individuals, especially for species with low mobility. These findings suggest that low-mobility species may be more sensitive to habitat spatial heterogeneity in spatially structured landscapes. In addition, localized movement in combination with spatial autocorrelation may increase the population size, despite increased density effects.
High-Resolution prediction of soil pH in European temperate forests using Sentinel-2 and ancillary environmental data
Soil pH is a key indicator for understanding soil health status in forested ecosystems, yet high-resolution mapping of this variable, especially at a 30-m spatial resolution, remains limited. This study uses Sentinel-2 spectral data, in-situ soil pH measurements, topsoil physical properties from the Land Use/Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) database, and elevation data to estimate soil pH across temperate forests in Europe using a Random Forest model. Despite challenges in signal penetration due to forest canopy cover, the model achieved high prediction accuracy (R² = 0.62) at 30 m resolution. Bulk density, available water capacity, and clay content were the most influential physical predictors, while Sentinel-2 bands, particularly SWIR (1.610 and 2.190 μm), NIR (0.842 μm), and red-edge (0.705 and 0.783 μm), captured key vegetation responses related to soil acidity. Spatial analysis showed higher model accuracy in central and southern Europe, with reduced performance in Scandinavia, likely due to more acidic soils and extreme seasonal variation. The model also revealed significant pH differences among forest types, with deciduous forests showing the highest values and coniferous the lowest. These findings demonstrate the potential of high-resolution remote sensing data for monitoring soil pH, supporting forest management, biodiversity conservation, and climate adaptation strategies.
Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance
Collinearity refers to the non independence of predictor variables, usually in a regression-type analysis. It is a common feature of any descriptive ecological data set and can be a problem for parameter estimation because it inflates the variance of regression parameters and hence potentially leads to the wrong identification of relevant predictors in a statistical model. Collinearity is a severe problem when a model is trained on data from one region or time, and predicted to another with a different or unknown structure of collinearity. To demonstrate the reach of the problem of collinearity in ecology, we show how relationships among predictors differ between biomes, change over spatial scales and through time. Across disciplines, different approaches to addressing collinearity problems have been developed, ranging from clustering of predictors, threshold-based pre-selection, through latent variable methods, to shrinkage and regularisation. Using simulated data with five predictor-response relationships of increasing complexity and eight levels of collinearity we compared ways to address collinearity with standard multiple regression and machine-learning approaches. We assessed the performance of each approach by testing its impact on prediction to new data. In the extreme, we tested whether the methods were able to identify the true underlying relationship in a training dataset with strong collinearity by evaluating its performance on a test dataset without any collinearity. We found that methods specifically designed for collinearity, such as latent variable methods and tree based models, did not outperform the traditional GLM and threshold-based pre-selection. Our results highlight the value of GLM in combination with penalised methods (particularly ridge) and threshold-based pre-selection when omitted variables are considered in the final interpretation. However, all approaches tested yielded degraded predictions under change in collinearity structure and the folk lore'-thresholds of correlation coefficients between predictor variables of |r| >0.7 was an appropriate indicator for when collinearity begins to severely distort model estimation and subsequent prediction. The use of ecological understanding of the system in pre-analysis variable selection and the choice of the least sensitive statistical approaches reduce the problems of collinearity, but cannot ultimately solve them.
Automatic Counting of Large Mammals from Very High Resolution Panchromatic Satellite Imagery
Estimating animal populations by direct counting is an essential component of wildlife conservation and management. However, conventional approaches (i.e., ground survey and aerial survey) have intrinsic constraints. Advances in image data capture and processing provide new opportunities for using applied remote sensing to count animals. Previous studies have demonstrated the feasibility of using very high resolution multispectral satellite images for animal detection, but to date, the practicality of detecting animals from space using panchromatic imagery has not been proven. This study demonstrates that it is possible to detect and count large mammals (e.g., wildebeests and zebras) from a single, very high resolution GeoEye-1 panchromatic image in open savanna. A novel semi-supervised object-based method that combines a wavelet algorithm and a fuzzy neural network was developed. To discern large mammals from their surroundings and discriminate between animals and non-targets, we used the wavelet technique to highlight potential objects. To make full use of geometric attributes, we carefully trained the classifier, using the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. Our proposed method (with an accuracy index of 0.79) significantly outperformed the traditional threshold-based method (with an accuracy index of 0.58) detecting large mammals in open savanna.
Sensitivity of Landsat-8 OLI and TIRS Data to Foliar Properties of Early Stage Bark Beetle (Ips typographus, L.) Infestation
In this study, the early stage of European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus, L.) infestation (so-called green attack) is investigated using Landsat-8 optical and thermal data. We conducted an extensive field survey in June and the beginning of July 2016, to collect field data measurements from several infested and healthy trees in the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP), Germany. In total, 157 trees were selected, and leaf traits (i.e. stomatal conductance, chlorophyll fluorescence, and water content) were measured. Three Landsat-8 images from May, July, and August 2016 were studied, representing an early stage, advanced stage, and post-infestation, respectively. Spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) sensitive to the measured traits were calculated from the optical domain (VIS, NIR, and SWIR), and canopy surface temperature (CST) was calculated from the thermal infrared band using the mono-window algorithm. The leaf traits were used to examine the impact of bark beetle infestation on the infested trees and to explore the link between these traits and remote sensing data (CST and SVIs). The differences between healthy and infested samples regarding measured leaf traits were assessed using Student’s t test. The relative importance of the CST and SVIs for estimating measured leaf traits was evaluated based on the variable importance in projection (VIP) obtained from the partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis. A temporal comparison was then made for SVIs with a VIP > 1, including CST, using statistical significance tests. The clustering method using a principal components analysis (PCA) was used to examine visually how well the two groups of sample plots (healthy and infested) are separated in 2-D space based on principal component scores. Finally, linear regression (LR) was used to generate the leaf traits maps using the SVI that have highest VIP score and then used to produce a stress map for the study area. The results revealed that all measured leaf traits were significantly different (p < 0.05) between healthy versus infested samples. Moreover, the study showed that CST was superior to the SVIs in detecting subtle canopy changes due to bark beetle infestation for the three months considered in this study. The results showed that CST is an essential variable for estimating measured leaf traits with VIP > 1, improving the results of clustering when used with other SVIs. Likewise, the stress map produced by CST and leaf traits well presented the infestation areas at the green attacked stage. The new insight offered by this study is that the stress induced by the early stage of bark beetle infestation is more pronounced by Landsat-8 thermal bands than the SVIs calculated from its optical bands. The potential of CST in detecting the green attack stage would have positive implications for forest practice.
Spotting East African Mammals in Open Savannah from Space
Knowledge of population dynamics is essential for managing and conserving wildlife. Traditional methods of counting wild animals such as aerial survey or ground counts not only disturb animals, but also can be labour intensive and costly. New, commercially available very high-resolution satellite images offer great potential for accurate estimates of animal abundance over large open areas. However, little research has been conducted in the area of satellite-aided wildlife census, although computer processing speeds and image analysis algorithms have vastly improved. This paper explores the possibility of detecting large animals in the open savannah of Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya from very high-resolution GeoEye-1 satellite images. A hybrid image classification method was employed for this specific purpose by incorporating the advantages of both pixel-based and object-based image classification approaches. This was performed in two steps: firstly, a pixel-based image classification method, i.e., artificial neural network was applied to classify potential targets with similar spectral reflectance at pixel level; and then an object-based image classification method was used to further differentiate animal targets from the surrounding landscapes through the applications of expert knowledge. As a result, the large animals in two pilot study areas were successfully detected with an average count error of 8.2%, omission error of 6.6% and commission error of 13.7%. The results of the study show for the first time that it is feasible to perform automated detection and counting of large wild animals in open savannahs from space, and therefore provide a complementary and alternative approach to the conventional wildlife survey techniques.
Rhododendron diversity patterns and priority conservation areas in China
Aim: To predict Rhododendron diversity patterns and identify Rhododendron hotspots and priority areas for their conservation. Location: China. Methods: We predicted the distribution of 212 Rhododendron species by applying a spatially explicit species assemblage modelling (SESAM) framework on a 10 × 10 km grid across China. We evaluated Rhododendron diversity based on species richness, β-diversity and weighted endemism (also known as range-size rarity), and then identified hotspots formed by the top 1%, 5%, 25% and 50% of record-containing grid cells for each diversity metric separately and for the combination of the three diversity metrics. We determined the priority conservation areas for Rhododendrons by overlaying the hotspots with the map of the 2139 nature reserves existing in China, and calculated the percentage of hotspots that is protected. The same analysis was also applied to threatened Rhododendron species. Results: Rhododendron species richness, β-diversity and weighted endemism decrease within China from the south-west to the north-east, mainly along mountain ranges. In total, 12 general hotspots for Rhododendron species are detected, covering 1.4% of China's land area. Five separately discerned hotspots (i.e. southern Chongqing, south-eastern Tibet, north-western Yunnan, south-western Sichuan and northern Guangdong) comprising threatened Rhododendron species largely overlap (86.3%) with the general hotspots, and form priority areas for conservation. However, the remaining hotspots, especially southern Zhejiang and north-eastern Guizhou, need more protection. Main conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study of Rhododendron diversity patterns across the whole of China in terms of species richness, β-diversity and weighted endemism, thereby offering a sound basis for the conservation of Rhododendrons in China. We demonstrate that as much attention should be paid to the small hotspots in south-western and south-eastern China, as to the largest hotspot (i.e. Mt Hengduan), to achieve conservation of Rhododendrons.
Impact of Vertical Canopy Position on Leaf Spectral Properties and Traits across Multiple Species
Understanding the vertical pattern of leaf traits across plant canopies provide critical information on plant physiology, ecosystem functioning and structure and vegetation response to climate change. However, the impact of vertical canopy position on leaf spectral properties and subsequently leaf traits across the entire spectrum for multiple species is poorly understood. In this study, we examined the ability of leaf optical properties to track variability in leaf traits across the vertical canopy profile using Partial Least Square Discriminatory Analysis (PLS-DA). Leaf spectral measurements together with leaf traits (nitrogen, carbon, chlorophyll, equivalent water thickness and specific leaf area) were studied at three vertical canopy positions along the plant stem: lower, middle and upper. We observed that foliar nitrogen (N), chlorophyll (Cab), carbon (C), and equivalent water thickness (EWT) were higher in the upper canopy leaves compared with lower shaded leaves, while specific leaf area (SLA) increased from upper to lower canopy leaves. We found that leaf spectral reflectance significantly (P ≤ 0.05) shifted to longer wavelengths in the ‘red edge’ spectrum (685–701 nm) in the order of lower > middle > upper for the pooled dataset. We report that spectral bands that are influential in the discrimination of leaf samples into the three groups of canopy position, based on the PLS-DA variable importance projection (VIP) score, match with wavelength regions of foliar traits observed to vary across the canopy vertical profile. This observation demonstrated that both leaf traits and leaf reflectance co-vary across the vertical canopy profile in multiple species. We conclude that canopy vertical position has a significant impact on leaf spectral properties of an individual plant’s traits, and this finding holds for multiple species. These findings have important implications on field sampling protocols, upscaling leaf traits to canopy level, canopy reflectance modelling, and subsequent leaf trait retrieval, especially for studies that aimed to integrate hyperspectral measurements and LiDAR data.