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Why some individuals ‘resist’ infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) has been an enigma. Enriched T cell phenotypes have now been linked to ‘resistance’ to Mtb infection and disease across multiple cohorts.

With the rise in fluoroquinolone-resistant Salmonella Typhi and the recent emergence of ceftriaxone resistance, azithromycin is one of the last oral drugs available against typhoid for which resistance is uncommon. Its increasing use, specifically in light of the ongoing outbreak of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Salmonella Typhi (resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, cotrimoxazole, streptomycin, fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins) in Pakistan, places selective pressure for the emergence and spread of azithromycin-resistant isolates. However, little is known about azithromycin resistance in Salmonella, and no molecular data are available on its mechanism. We conducted typhoid surveillance in the two largest pediatric hospitals of Bangladesh from 2009-2016. All typhoidal Salmonella strains were screened for azithromycin resistance using disc diffusion and resistance was confirmed using E-tests. In total, we identified 1,082 Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi A strains; among these, 13 strains (12 Typhi, 1 Paratyphi A) were azithromycin-resistant (MIC range: 32-64 μg/ml) with the first case observed in 2013. We sequenced the resistant strains, but no molecular basis of macrolide resistance was identified by the currently available antimicrobial resistance prediction tools. A whole genome SNP tree, made using RAxML, showed that the 12 Typhi resistant strains clustered together within the 4.3.1.1 sub-clade (H58 lineage 1). We found a non-synonymous single-point mutation exclusively in these 12 strains in the gene encoding AcrB, an efflux pump that removes small molecules from bacterial cells. The mutation changed the conserved amino acid arginine (R) at position 717 to a glutamine (Q). To test the role of R717Q present in azithromycin-resistant strains, we cloned acrB from azithromycin-resistant and sensitive strains, expressed them in E. coli, Typhi and Paratyphi A strains and tested their azithromycin susceptibility. Expression of AcrB-R717Q in E. coli and Typhi strains increased the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for azithromycin by 11- and 3-fold respectively. The azithromycin-resistant Paratyphi A strain also contained a mutation at R717 (R717L), whose introduction in E. coli and Paratyphi A strains increased MIC by 7- and 3-fold respectively, confirming the role of R717 mutations in conferring azithromycin resistance. This report confirms 12 azithromycin-resistant Salmonella Typhi strains and one Paratyphi A strain. The molecular basis of this resistance is one mutation in the AcrB protein at position 717. This is the first report demonstrating the impact of this non-synonymous mutation in conferring macrolide resistance in a clinical setting. With increasing azithromycin use, strains with R717 mutations may spread and be acquired by XDR strains. An azithromycin-resistant XDR strain would shift enteric fever treatment from outpatient departments, where patients are currently treated with oral azithromycin, to inpatient departments to be treated with injectable antibiotics like carbapenems, thereby further burdening already struggling health systems in endemic regions. Moreover, with the dearth of novel antimicrobials in the horizon, we risk losing our primary defense against widespread mortality from typhoid. In addition to rolling out the WHO prequalified typhoid conjugate vaccine in endemic areas to decrease the risk of pan-resistant Salmonella Typhi strains, it is also imperative to implement antimicrobial stewardship and water sanitation and hygiene intervention to decrease the overall burden of enteric fever.

Official projections of the cholera epidemic in Haiti have not incorporated existing disease trends or patterns of transmission, and proposed interventions have been debated without comparative estimates of their effect. We used a mathematical model of the epidemic to provide projections of future morbidity and mortality, and to produce comparative estimates of the effects of proposed interventions. We designed mathematical models of cholera transmission based on existing models and fitted them to incidence data reported in Haiti for each province from Oct 31, 2010, to Jan 24, 2011. We then simulated future epidemic trajectories from March 1 to Nov 30, 2011, to estimate the effect of clean water, vaccination, and enhanced antibiotic distribution programmes. We project 779 000 cases of cholera in Haiti (95% CI 599 000–914 000) and 11 100 deaths (7300–17 400) between March 1 and Nov 30, 2011. We expect that a 1% per week reduction in consumption of contaminated water would avert 105 000 cases (88 000–116 000) and 1500 deaths (1100–2300). We predict that the vaccination of 10% of the population, from March 1, will avert 63 000 cases (48 000–78 000) and 900 deaths (600–1500). The proposed extension of the use of antibiotics to all patients with severe dehydration and half of patients with moderate dehydration is expected to avert 9000 cases (8000–10 000) and 1300 deaths (900–2000). A decline in cholera prevalence in early 2011 is part of the natural course of the epidemic, and should not be interpreted as indicative of successful intervention. Substantially more cases of cholera are expected than official estimates used for resource allocation. Combined, clean water provision, vaccination, and expanded access to antibiotics might avert thousands of deaths. National Institutes of Health.

AbstractObjectiveTo estimate the effectiveness of the inactivated whole virus vaccine, CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech), against symptomatic covid-19 in the elderly population of São Paulo state, Brazil during widespread circulation of the gamma variant.DesignTest negative case-control study.SettingCommunity testing for covid-19 in São Paulo state, Brazil.Participants43 774 adults aged ≥70 years who were residents of São Paulo state and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 29 April 2021. 26 433 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 17 622 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 13 283 matched sets, one case with to up to five controls, according to age, sex, self-reported race, municipality of residence, previous covid-19 status, and date of RT-PCR test (±3 days).InterventionVaccination with a two dose regimen of CoronaVac.Main outcome measuresRT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths.ResultsAdjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic covid-19 was 24.7% (95% confidence interval 14.7% to 33.4%) at 0-13 days and 46.8% (38.7% to 53.8%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions was 55.5% (46.5% to 62.9%) and against deaths was 61.2% (48.9% to 70.5%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Vaccine effectiveness ≥14 days after the second dose was highest for the youngest age group (70-74 years)—59.0% (43.7% to 70.2%) against symptomatic disease, 77.6% (62.5% to 86.7%) against hospital admissions, and 83.9% (59.2% to 93.7%) against deaths—and declined with increasing age.ConclusionsVaccination with CoronaVac was associated with a reduction in symptomatic covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths in adults aged ≥70 years in a setting with extensive transmission of the gamma variant. Vaccine protection was, however, low until completion of the two dose regimen, and vaccine effectiveness was observe to decline with increasing age among this elderly population.

Private sector healthcare delivery in low- and middle-income countries is sometimes argued to be more efficient, accountable, and sustainable than public sector delivery. Conversely, the public sector is often regarded as providing more equitable and evidence-based care. We performed a systematic review of research studies investigating the performance of private and public sector delivery in low- and middle-income countries. Peer-reviewed studies including case studies, meta-analyses, reviews, and case-control analyses, as well as reports published by non-governmental organizations and international agencies, were systematically collected through large database searches, filtered through methodological inclusion criteria, and organized into six World Health Organization health system themes: accessibility and responsiveness; quality; outcomes; accountability, transparency, and regulation; fairness and equity; and efficiency. Of 1,178 potentially relevant unique citations, data were obtained from 102 articles describing studies conducted in low- and middle-income countries. Comparative cohort and cross-sectional studies suggested that providers in the private sector more frequently violated medical standards of practice and had poorer patient outcomes, but had greater reported timeliness and hospitality to patients. Reported efficiency tended to be lower in the private than in the public sector, resulting in part from perverse incentives for unnecessary testing and treatment. Public sector services experienced more limited availability of equipment, medications, and trained healthcare workers. When the definition of \"private sector\" included unlicensed and uncertified providers such as drug shop owners, most patients appeared to access care in the private sector; however, when unlicensed healthcare providers were excluded from the analysis, the majority of people accessed public sector care. \"Competitive dynamics\" for funding appeared between the two sectors, such that public funds and personnel were redirected to private sector development, followed by reductions in public sector service budgets and staff. Studies evaluated in this systematic review do not support the claim that the private sector is usually more efficient, accountable, or medically effective than the public sector; however, the public sector appears frequently to lack timeliness and hospitality towards patients.

It has been hypothesized that prisons serve as amplifiers of general tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, but there is a paucity of data on this phenomenon and the potential population-level effects of prison-focused interventions. This study (1) quantifies the TB risk for prisoners as they traverse incarceration and release, (2) mathematically models the impact of prison-based interventions on TB burden in the general population, and (3) generalizes this model to a wide range of epidemiological contexts. We obtained individual-level incarceration data for all inmates (n = 42,925) and all reported TB cases (n = 5,643) in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2007 through 2013. We matched individuals between prisoner and TB databases and estimated the incidence of TB from the time of incarceration and the time of prison release using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 130 new TB cases diagnosed during incarceration and 170 among individuals released from prison. During imprisonment, TB rates increased from 111 cases per 100,000 person-years at entry to a maximum of 1,303 per 100,000 person-years at 5.2 years. At release, TB incidence was 229 per 100,000 person-years, which declined to 42 per 100,000 person-years (the average TB incidence in Brazil) after 7 years. We used these data to populate a compartmental model of TB transmission and incarceration to evaluate the effects of various prison-based interventions on the incidence of TB among prisoners and the general population. Annual mass TB screening within Brazilian prisons would reduce TB incidence in prisons by 47.4% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 44.4%-52.5%) and in the general population by 19.4% (95% BCI 17.9%-24.2%). A generalized model demonstrates that prison-based interventions would have maximum effectiveness in reducing community incidence in populations with a high concentration of TB in prisons and greater degrees of mixing between ex-prisoners and community members. Study limitations include our focus on a single Brazilian state and our retrospective use of administrative databases. Our findings suggest that the prison environment, more so than the prison population itself, drives TB incidence, and targeted interventions within prisons could have a substantial effect on the broader TB epidemic.

Invasive Salmonellosis caused by Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi or Paratyphi A, B, C, or invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella serotypes, is an immensely important disease cluster for which reliable, rapid diagnostic tests are not available. Blood culture remains the gold standard but is insensitive, slow, and resource-intensive. Existing molecular diagnostics have poor sensitivity due to the low organism burden in bodily fluids. Commercially available serologic tests for typhoidal Salmonella have had limited sensitivity and specificity. In high burden, resource-limited settings, reliance on clinical diagnosis or inaccurate tests often results in frequent, unnecessary treatment, which contributes selective pressure for the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. This practice also results in inadequate therapy for other etiologies of acute febrile illnesses, including leptospirosis and rickettsial infections. A number of novel serologic, molecular, transcriptomic and metabolomic approaches to diagnostics are under development. Target product profiles that outline specific needs may focus development and investment, and establish benchmarks for accuracy, cost, speed, and portability of new diagnostics. Of note, a critical barrier to diagnostic assay rollout will be the low cost and low perceived harm of empiric therapy on behalf of providers and patients, which leaves few perceived incentives to utilize diagnostics. Approaches that align incentives with societal goals of limiting inappropriate antimicrobial use, such as subsidizing diagnostics, may be essential for stimulating development and uptake of such assays in resource-limited settings. New diagnostics for invasive Salmonellosis should be developed and deployed alongside diagnostics for alternative etiologies of acute febrile illnesses to improve targeted use of antibiotics.

Unvaccinated persons without previous Covid-19 had the highest risk of omicron infection; those who had been infected after emergence of the delta variant and had received three mRNA vaccine doses were the most protected.

Sanjay Basu and colleagues explain how models are increasingly used to inform public health policy yet readers may struggle to evaluate the quality of models. All models require simplifying assumptions, and there are tradeoffs between creating models that are more \"realistic\" versus those that are grounded in more solid data. Indeed, complex models are not necessarily more accurate or reliable simply because they can more easily fit real-world data than simpler models can. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Background. Population models of tuberculosis transmission have not accounted for social contact structure and the role of the environment in which tuberculosis is transmitted. Methods. We utilized extensions to the Wells-Riley model of tuberculosis transmission, using exhaled carbon dioxide as a tracer gas, to describe transmission patterns in an endemic community. Drawing upon social interaction data and carbon dioxide measurements from a South African township, we created an age-structured model of tuberculosis transmission in households, public transit, schools, and workplaces. We fit the model to local data on latent tuberculosis prevalence by age. Results. Most tuberculosis infections (84%) were estimated to occur outside of one's own household. Fifty percent of infections among young adults (ages 15-19) occurred in schools, due to high contact rates and poor ventilation. Despite lower numbers of contacts in workplaces, assortative mixing among adults with high rates of smearpositive tuberculosis contributed to transmission in this environment. Households and public transit were important sites of transmission between age groups. Conclusions. Consistent with molecular epidemiologic estimates, a minority of tuberculosis transmission was estimated to occur within households, which may limit the impact of contact investigations. Further work is needed to investigate the role of schools in tuberculosis transmission.