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The growing involvement of equity funds in agriculture intensifies speculative dynamics and creates new tensions between short-term financial performance and long-term ecological stewardship. Brazil, as one of the world’s largest agricultural exporter and biodiversity hotspots, exemplifies these dynamics. Using a cointegration modeling approach, we analyze data from 2006–2023 to uncover long-run equilibria and short-run forecasting power between farmland prices, agribusiness stock prices, and commodity prices in Brazil. We found that farmland prices not only co-move with commodity and stock prices but also Granger-cause financial valuations of agribusiness firms, suggesting that land is increasingly treated as a forward-looking financial indicator rather than a productive asset. The financialization of land markets, as evidenced by these dynamics, can complicate Brazil’s efforts to achieve sustainability goals if proper governance is not in place. To avoid risks of shareholder capitalism—i.e. maximize profits for its investors as primary goal at the expense of ecological or social aspects—, companies might incorporate environmental metrics into how they manage investments and by regulatory frameworks can require financial disclosures that clearly show ecological risks. Aligning financial stewardship with sustainability is not only good practice but also vital for the long-term resilience of land systems.

Expansion of global demand for soy products and biofuel poses threats to food security and the environment. One environmental impact that has raised serious concerns is loss of Amazonian forest through indirect land use change (ILUC), whereby mechanized agriculture encroaches on existing pastures, displacing them to the frontier. This phenomenon has been hypothesized by many researchers and projected on the basis of simulation for the Amazonian forests of Brazil. It has not yet been measured statistically, owing to conceptual difficulties in linking distal land cover drivers to the point of impact. The present article overcomes this impasse with a spatial regression model capable of linking the expansion of mechanized agriculture in settled agricultural areas to pasture conversions on distant, forest frontiers. In an application for a recent period (2003–2008), the model demonstrates that ILUC is significant and of considerable magnitude. Specifically, a 10% reduction of soy in old pasture areas would have decreased deforestation by as much as 40% in heavily forested counties of the Brazilian Amazon. Evidently, the voluntary moratorium on primary forest conversions by Brazilian soy farmers has failed to stop the deforestation effects of expanding soy production. Thus, environmental policy in Brazil must pay attention to ILUC, which can complicate efforts to achieve its REDD targets.

As demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacán—Mexico’s biggest avocado growing region—expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to specific forest types and (b) how the distribution of avocado is shifting spatially under current and future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that avocado expansion in Michoacán is strongly driven by distance to existing agriculture, roads, and localities, as well as the dwindling availability of Andosol soils. As future expansion ensues, it presents risk of forest loss across various forest types, with pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane forest, and oyamel fir forest being of particular concern. Moreover, our results suggest that avocado production will occupy wider ranges in terms of temperature, precipitation, slope steepness and soil. The model predicts that climate change will alter the spatial distribution of avocado plantings, expanding into forest types at lower and at higher elevations. Forest loss threatens ecosystem degradation, and a wider avocado crop production footprint could lead to orchard establishment into dwindling forests that host a high diversity of native oaks and charismatic species, including the monarch butterfly.

Brazil is one of the largest suppliers of commodities in the world, partly due to the agricultural expansion in the Brazilian savannas (also known as Cerrado) that began in the 1970s. However, as areas with better soil and climate for agriculture become scarce, farmers have been advancing to the ecotone between the savanna and xeric shrubland, where precipitation is less reliable for rainfed agriculture. The expected increase in temperature will lead to extended drought periods, with negative consequences for surface and groundwater resources. This study explores the hazards associated with making land-use decisions based on current climatology in regions where projected increases in temperature and reductions in water availability are anticipated to pose significant challenges to rainfed agriculture in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. We modeled future farmland expansion and how that matches with future climate change predictions (2016–2046). According to our estimates, at least 129 thousand km2 of cropland and 418 thousand km2 of pastures will be added in places with projected higher annual temperatures ranging from 26–30 °C. This is equivalent to ~60% of the current agricultural areas, and a novel agro-climatology will emerge for the Cerrado biome. Therefore, we discuss the agro-environmental policies that are pushing and pulling farmland expansion in the Cerrado. For instance, payments for environmental services could support the conservation of native vegetation on private land in regions with the highest temperature increases and deforestation risks. Moreover, in areas with expected reduced water yields, such as in the western Cerrado, the protection of riparian vegetation and strict regulation of water use could mitigate future risks to agriculture.

The rapid expansion of avocado cultivation in Michoacán, Mexico, is one of the drivers of deforestation. We assessed the degree of fragmentation and functional connectivity of the remaining temperate forest within the Avocado Belt and prioritized patches that contribute the most to connectivity using a network-based approach and modelling different seed and pollen dispersal scenarios, including two types of patch attributes (size and degree of conservation). As landscape transformation in the region is rapid and ongoing, we updated the land-use and land-cover maps through a supervised classification of Sentinel-2 imagery, improving the reliability of our analyses. Temperate forest is highly fragmented within the region: most patches are small (<30 ha), have a reduced core-area (28%), and irregular shapes. The degree of connectivity is very low (0.06), dropping to 0.019 when the degree of conservation of patches was considered. The top 100 ranked patches of forest that support the connectivity of seeds and pollen have different characteristics (i.e., size and topology) that may be considered for implementing conservation and management strategies. Seed dispersal seems to be more threatened by fragmentation than pollen dispersal, and patches that are important for maintaining seed connectivity are embedded in the denser zone of avocado orchards.

The Caribbean has displayed a capacity to fulfill climate change projections associated with tropical cyclone-related rainfall and flooding. This article describes the hydrometeorological characteristics of Hurricane Fiona in Puerto Rico in September 2022 in terms of measured and interpolated rainfall and observed peak flows relative to previous tropical cyclones from 1899 to 2017. Hurricane Fiona ranks third overall in terms of island-wide total rainfall and fourth in terms of daily rainfall. Maximum daily rainfall during Hurricane Fiona exceeded those previously reported (excluding Hurricane María in 2017) in the eastern interior and eastern portions of the island. In terms of peak flows, no value approached the world’s or Puerto Rico’s flood envelope, although 69% of the observations are considered ‘exceptional’. About 26% and 29% of all peak flows were in the 5–10 year and 10–25 year recurrence interval ranges, respectively, yet none matched the 25-year levels. The highest peak flows were concentrated in the central-eastern and southeastern regions. Even though Hurricane María provoked a more extreme hydrometeorological response, some of Hurricane Fiona’s hydro-meteorological characteristics were among the highest ever recorded in Puerto Rico, particularly for the south-central and eastern portions of the island, and it displayed the island’s current level of vulnerability to extreme rainfall.

More than a hundred hydropower dams have already been built in the Amazon basin and numerous proposals for further dam constructions are under consideration. The accumulated negative environmental effects of existing dams and proposed dams, if constructed, will trigger massive hydrophysical and biotic disturbances that will affect the Amazon basin’s floodplains, estuary and sediment plume. We introduce a Dam Environmental Vulnerability Index to quantify the current and potential impacts of dams in the basin. The scale of foreseeable environmental degradation indicates the need for collective action among nations and states to avoid cumulative, far-reaching impacts. We suggest institutional innovations to assess and avoid the likely impoverishment of Amazon rivers. The current and expected environmental consequences of built dams and proposed dam constructions in the Amazon basin are explored with the help of a Dam Environmental Vulnerability Index. Damming in the Amazon There are already more than 100 hydropower dams in place across the Amazon basin. They are not just a source of energy, but also of on-going contention between developers, government officials, locals and environmentalists. This Perspective explores the current and expected environmental consequences of existing and proposed dams in the Amazon basin, with the help of a Dam Environmental Vulnerability Index (DEVI). The authors quantitatively assess the vulnerability of different regions of the basin, and propose that an integrative legal framework is required to guide all nine stakeholder countries towards minimizing the negative socio-economic and environmental impacts of present and future dams.

Peak streamflow rates from the Insular Caribbean have received limited attention in worldwide catalogues in spite of their potential for exceptionality given many of the islands’ steep topographic relief and proneness to high rainfall rates associated with tropical cyclones. This study compiled 1922 area-normalized peak streamflow rates recorded during tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico from 1899 to 2020. The results show that the highest peak flow values recorded on the island were within the range of the world’s maxima for watersheds with drainage areas from 10 to 619 km2. Although higher tropical cyclone rainfall and streamflow rates were observed on average for the central–eastern half of Puerto Rico, the highest of all cyclone-related peaks occurred throughout the entire island and were caused by tropical depressions, tropical storms, or hurricanes. Improving our understanding of instantaneous peak flow rates in Puerto Rico and other islands of the Caribbean is locally important due to their significance in terms of flooding extent and its associated impacts, but also because these could serve as indicators of the implications of a changing climate on tropical cyclone intensity and the associated hydrologic response.

Avocados have become a global commodity, and environmental and socioeconomic impacts in the regions where avocados are grown have increased in tandem with production. In this article, we synthesize the current state of knowledge about the impacts of avocado production in Michoacán, México, the global center of avocado production. Environmental impacts on biodiversity, soil, and hydrological systems stem from deforestation and forest fragmentation that result from avocado expansion. The avocado industry has brought some economic benefits, namely increased employment and reductions in poverty and out-migration, but inequity in the region limits the positive socioeconomic impacts. We draw comparisons to other commodity studies and propose that lessons learned from such research could be utilized to make the avocado supply chain more sustainable. Ultimately, steps could be taken at all levels of the commodity chain to improve sustainability, including improved farming practices, policies protecting smallholders and local capital, and increased consumer awareness.

Unofficial roads form dense networks in landscapes, generating a litany of negative ecological outcomes, but in frontier areas they are also instrumental in local livelihoods and community development. This trade-off poses dilemmas for the governance of unofficial roads. Unofficial road building in frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon illustrates the challenges of ‘road governance.’ Both state-based and community-based governance models exhibit important liabilities for governing unofficial roads. Whereas state-based governance has experienced difficulties in adapting to specific local contexts and interacting effectively with local peoples, community-based governance has a mixed record owing to social inequalities and conflicts among local interest groups. A state-community hybrid model may offer more effective governance of unofficial road building by combining the oversight capacity of the state with locally-grounded community management via participatory decision-making.