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Preterm neonatal mortality contributes substantially to the high neonatal mortality globally. In Uganda, preterm neonatal mortality accounts for 31% of all neonatal deaths. Previous studies have shown variability in mortality rates by healthcare setting. Also, different predictors influence the risk of neonatal mortality in different populations. Understanding the predictors of preterm neonatal mortality in the low-resource setting where we conducted our study could guide the development of interventions to improve outcomes for preterm neonates. We thus aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of mortality among preterm neonates born at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) in South Western Uganda. We prospectively enrolled 538 live preterm neonates born at MRRH from October 2019 to September 2020. The neonates were followed up until death or 28 days, whichever occurred first. We used Kaplan Meier survival analysis to describe preterm neonatal mortality and Cox proportional hazards regression to assess predictors of preterm neonatal mortality over a maximum of 28 days of follow up. The cumulative incidence of preterm neonatal mortality was 19.8% (95% C.I: 16.7-23.5) at 28 days from birth. Birth asphyxia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 14.80; 95% CI: 5.21 to 42.02), not receiving kangaroo mother care (aHR, 9.50; 95% CI: 5.37 to 16.78), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (aHR, 9.49; 95% CI: 2.84 to 31.68), late antenatal care (ANC) booking (aHR, 1.81 to 2.52; 95% CI: 1.11 to 7.11) and no ANC attendance (aHR, 3.56; 95% CI: 1.51 to 8.43), vaginal breech delivery (aHR, 3.04; 95% CI: 1.37 to 5.18), very preterm births (aHR, 3.17; 95% CI: 1.24 to 8.13), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) (aHR, 2.50; 95% CI: 1.11 to 5.64) and hypothermia at the time of admission to the neonatal unit (aHR, 1.98; 95% CI: 1.18 to 3.33) increased the risk of preterm neonatal mortality. Attending more than 4 ANC visits (aHR, 0.35; 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.96) reduced the risk of preterm neonatal mortality. We observed a high cumulative incidence of mortality among preterm neonates born at a low-resource regional referral hospital in Uganda. The predictors of mortality among preterm neonates were largely modifiable factors occurring in the prenatal, natal and postnatal period (lack of ANC attendance, late ANC booking, vaginal breech delivery, birth asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome, and hypothermia at the time of admission to the neonatal unit, not receiving kangaroo mother care and delayed initiation of breastfeeding). These findings suggest that investment in and enhancement of ANC attendance, intrapartum care, and the feasible essential newborn care interventions by providing the warm chain through kangaroo mother care, encouraging early initiation of breastfeeding, timely resuscitation for neonates when indicated and therapies reducing the incidence and severity of RDS could improve outcomes among preterm neonates in this setting.

Measuring malnutrition in hospitalized patients is difficult in all settings. I evaluated associations of items in the mini nutritional assessment short-form (MNA-sf), a nutritional-risk screening tool previously validated in the elderly, with malnutrition among hospitalized patients in Uganda. I used results to construct two simplifications of this tool that may be applicable to young and middle-aged adults. I assessed the association of each MNA-sf item with the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), a specific measure of malnutrition at appropriate cut-offs. I incorporated only malnutrition-specific items into the proposed simplifications scoring each item according to its association with malnutrition. I assessed numbers classified to different score-levels by the simplifications and, via proportional hazards regression, how the simplifications predicted in-hospital mortality. I analyzed 318 patients (median age 37, interquartile range 27 to 56). Variables making it into the simplifications were: reduced food intake, weight loss, mobility, and either BMI in kg/m2 (categorized as <16, 16 to 16.9, and ≥17) or MUAC in centimeters (categorized as <16 or <17, 16 to 18.9 or 17 to 19.9, and ≥19 or ≥20 for females and males respectively). Compared to the traditional MNA-sf, the simplifications classified fewer patients as malnourished, yet remained strongly predictive of in-hospital mortality. In the MUAC-incorporating simplification, malnourished patients had 3.8-fold (95% CI 1.9 to 7.8) higher risk of in-hospital death than those not malnourished; adjusting for age, sex, and HIV status. The MNA-sf simplifications described may provide an improved measure of malnutrition in hospitalized young and middle-aged adults. •In resource-limited settings, complicated nutritional tests are rarely available.•BMIs are often either difficult to obtain or unreliable for hospitalized patients.•The mini nutritional assessment short-form (MNA-sf) predicts in-hospital mortality.•This study assessed the associations of each MNA-sf item with malnutrition using the mid-upper arm circumference as reference.•Results were used to develop 2 simplified MNA-sf versions applicable to young adults.

Background Unplanned pregnancy remains a common problem in many resource-limited settings, mostly due to limited access to modern family planning (FP) services. In particular, use of the more effective long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods (i.e., intrauterine devices and hormonal implants) remains low compared to the short-acting methods (i.e., condoms, hormonal pills, injectable hormones, and spermicides). Among reproductive-age women attending FP and antenatal care clinics in Uganda, we assessed perceptions and practices regarding the use of modern contraceptive methods. We specifically aimed to evaluate factors influencing method selection. Methods We performed a mixed-methods cross-sectional study, in which we administered structured interviews to 180 clients, and conducted 4 focus group discussions (FGDs) with 36 clients and 8 in-depth personal qualitative interviews with health service providers. We summarized quantitative data and performed latent content analysis on transcripts from the FGDs and qualitative interviews. Results The prevalence of ever use for LARC methods was 23%. Method characteristics (e.g., client control) appeared to drive method selection more often than structural factors (such as method availability) or individual client characteristics (such as knowledge and perceptions). The most common reasons for choosing LARC methods were: longer protection; better child-spacing; and effectiveness. The most common reasons for not choosing LARC methods included requiring a client-controlled method and desiring to conceive in the near future. The most common reasons for choosing short-acting methods were ease of access; lower cost; privacy; perceived fewer side effects; and freedom to stop using a method without involving the health provider. The personal characteristics of clients, which appeared to be important were client knowledge and number of children. The structural factor which appeared to be important was method availability. Conclusions Our results suggest that interventions to improve uptake of LARC among reproductive age women in this setting should consider: incorporating desired method-characteristics into LARC methods; targeted promotion and supply of LARC; and increased counselling, sensitization, and education.

Optimal vital signs monitoring of patients with severe sepsis in resource-limited settings may improve outcomes. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of vital signs monitoring of patients with severe sepsis and its association with mortality in a regional referral hospital in Uganda. We reviewed medical records of patients admitted to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital in Southwestern Uganda with severe sepsis defined by the presence of infection plus ≥ 2 of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria, and ≥ 1 organ dysfunction (altered mental state, hypotension, jaundice, or thrombocytopenia). We recorded frequency of vital signs monitoring in addition to socio-demographic, clinical, and outcome data. We analyzed the data using logistic regression. We identified 202 patients with severe sepsis. The median age was 35 years (IQR, 25-47) and 98 (48%) were female. HIV infection and anemia was present in 115 (57%) and 83 (41%) patients respectively. There were 67 (33%) in-hospital deaths. The median monitoring frequency per day was 1.1 (IQR 0.9-1.5) for blood pressure, 1.0 (IQR, 0.8-1.3) for temperature and pulse, and 0.5 (IQR, 0.3-1.0) for respiratory rate. The frequency of vital signs monitoring decreased during the course of hospitalization. Patients who died had a higher frequency of vital signs monitoring (p<0.05). The admission respiratory rate was associated with both frequency of monitoring (coefficient of linear regression 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.8, p<0.001) and mortality (AOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.3-5.3, p = 0.01). Other predictors of mortality included severity of illness, HIV infection, and anemia (p<0.05). More research is needed to determine the optimal frequency of vital signs monitoring for severely septic patients in resource-limited settings such as Uganda.

Background Reduced level of consciousness (LOC) is a common cause of presentation among acutely ill adults in sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with high rates of mortality. Although the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score is often used in clinical practice, its utility in predicting mortality has not been assessed in the region. Methods We prospectively enrolled adults presenting with reduced LOC to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda. We recorded clinical and laboratory data and performed the FOUR and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores at admission. We used survival analysis, fit Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the predictive properties of the two scores, and compared their performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results We enrolled 359 patients, mean (SD) age was 51 (22.2) years, and 58% (210/359) were male. The median (interquartile range) admission FOUR and GCS scores were 13.0 (3.0–16.0) and 10.0 (3.0–14.0), respectively. Subjects with the FOUR score of 0–11 had a 2.6-fold higher hazard of 30-day mortality (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9–3.6, p  < 0.001) compared to those with the score of 12–16. Those with the GCS score of 3–8 had a 2.7-fold higher hazard of 30-day mortality (HR 2.7, 95% CI 2.0–3.8, p  < 0.001) compared to those with the score of 9–15. The AUROC (95% CI) for the FOUR score and GCS score was 0.68 (0.62–0.73) and 0.67 (0.62–0.73), respectively ( p  = 0.825). Conclusions The FOUR score is comparable to the GCS score in predicting mortality in Uganda. Our findings support the introduction of the FOUR score in guiding the management of patients with reduced LOC in sub-Saharan Africa.

Introduction In sub-Saharan Africa, vital signs are a feasible option for monitoring critically ill patients. We assessed how admission vital signs data predict in-hospital mortality among patients with sepsis. In particular, we assessed whether vital signs data can be incorporated into a prognostic index with reduced segmentation in the values of included variables. Methods Subjects were patients with sepsis hospitalized in Uganda, who participated in two cohort studies. Using restricted cubic splines of admission vital signs data, we predicted probability of in-hospital death in the development cohort and used this information to construct a simple prognostic index. We assessed the performance of the index in a validation cohort and compared its performance to that of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). Results We included 317 patients (167 in the development cohort and 150 in the validation cohort). Based on how vital signs predicted mortality, we created a prognostic index giving a score of 1 for: respiratory rates ≥30 cycles/minute; pulse rates ≥100 beats/minute; mean arterial pressures ≥110/<70 mmHg; temperatures ≥38.6/<35.6°C; and presence of altered mental state defined as Glasgow coma score ≤14; 0 for all other values. The proposed index (maximum score = 5) predicted mortality comparably to MEWS. Patients scoring ≥3 on the index were 3.4-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6 to 7.3, P  = 0.001) and 2.3-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 4.7, P  = 0.031) as likely to die in hospital as those scoring 0 to 2 in the development and validation cohorts respectively; those scoring ≥5 on MEWS were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3, P  = 0.017) and 1.8-fold (95% CI 0.74 to 4.2, P  = 0.204) as likely to die as those scoring 0 to 4 in the development and validation cohorts respectively. Conclusion Among patients with sepsis, a prognostic index incorporating admission vital signs data with reduced segmentation in the values of included variables adequately predicted mortality. Such an index may be more easily implemented when triaging acutely-ill patients. Future studies using a similar approach may develop indexes that can be used to monitor treatment among acutely-ill patients, especially in resource-limited settings.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, efficacy trials of brief interventions to reduce unhealthy drinking among persons living with HIV (PLWH) have yielded mixed results. A better understanding of the perceptions of drinking, especially by PLWH, and how drinking is talked about at HIV treatment clinics in this setting, may guide more optimal designs for future trials. We conducted a qualitative study at an HIV treatment clinic in South Western Uganda to better understand perceptions of drinking, how drinking is talked about, and perceptions of interventions, especially a protocolled screening and brief intervention (SBI) for unhealthy drinking among PLWH. We conducted in-depth interviews with 17 PLWH who engaged in unhealthy drinking and 6 health workers, and one focus group discussion with 3 community advisory-board members. We performed manual preliminary data analysis and computer-assisted detailed thematic analysis to identify emergent themes. Four themes emerged: perceptions of alcohol use in the general population; perceptions of alcohol use in PLWH; interaction between PLWH and health workers about alcohol use; perceptions of interventions for unhealthy drinking including SBI. Unhealthy drinking was seen as a problem in the general population and among those with HIV, where it was negatively perceived. Communication about drinking was done by counselors, but doctors participated in screening for unhealthy alcohol use. Messages about drinking covered reduction and abstinence. Participants expressed positive attitudes towards SBI and preference for person-delivered SBI over technological alternatives. A protocolled SBI for unhealthy alcohol use among PLWH would be well-received but successful implementation may depend on mode of delivery.

Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), antiretroviral therapy (ART) can prolong life for HIV-infected patients. However, patients initiating ART, especially in routine treatment programs, commonly dropout from care either due to death or loss to follow-up. Methods In a cohort of HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public sector clinic in Uganda, we assessed predictors of dropout from care (a composite outcome combining death and loss to follow-up). From a large set of socio-demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables routinely collected at ART initiation, we selected those predicting dropout at P <0.1 in unadjusted analyses for inclusion into a multivariable proportional hazards regression model. We then used a stepwise backward selection procedure to identify variables which independently predicted dropout at P <0.05. Results Data from 5,057 patients were analyzed. The median age was 33 years (IQR 28 to 40) and 27.4 % had CD4+ T-cell counts <100 cells/μL at ART initiation. The median duration of follow-up was 24 months (IQR = 14 to 42, maximum follow-up = 64 months). Overall dropout was 26.9 % (established cumulative mortality = 2.3 %, loss to follow-up = 24.6 %), 5.6 % were transferred to other service providers, and 67.5 % were retained in care. A diagnosis of Kaposi’s sarcoma (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.3, 95 % CI 2.5 to 4.5); HIV-associated dementia (HR = 2.6, 95 % CI 1.5 to 4.6); history of cryptococcosis (HR = 2.2, 95 % CI 1.4 to 3.3); and reduced hemoglobin concentration (<11 g/dl versus ≥13.8 g/dl (HR = 1.9, 95 % CI 1.6 to 2.2) were strong predictors of dropout. Other independent predictors of dropout were: year of ART initiation; weight loss ≥10 %; reduced total lymphocyte count; chronic diarrhea; male sex; young age (≤28 years); and marital status. Conclusions Among HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public sector clinic in SSA, biological factors that usually predict death were especially predictive of dropout. As most of the dropouts were lost to follow-up, this observation suggests that many losses to follow-up may have died. Future studies are needed to identify appropriate interventions that may improve both individual-level patient outcomes and outcome ascertainment among HIV-infected ART initiators in this setting.

Epidemiological studies have identified an inverse association between cancer and dementia. Underlying methodological biases have been postulated, yet no studies have systematically investigated the potential for each source of bias within a single dataset. We used the UK Biobank to compare estimates for the cancer-dementia association using different analytical specifications designed to sequentially address multiple sources of bias, including competing risk of death, selective survival, confounding bias, and diagnostic bias. We included 140,959 UK Biobank participants aged ≥ 55 without dementia before enrollment and with linked primary care data. We used cancer registry data to identify cancer cases prevalent before UK Biobank enrollment and incident cancer diagnosed after enrollment. We used Cox models to evaluate associations of prevalent and incident cancer with all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease (AD), and vascular dementia. We used time-varying models to evaluate diagnostic bias. Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 3,310 dementia cases were diagnosed. All-site incident cancer was positively associated with all-cause dementia incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02–1.29), but prevalent cancer was not (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.92–1.17). Results were similar for vascular dementia. AD was not associated with prevalent or incident cancer. Dementia diagnosis was substantially elevated in the first year after cancer diagnosis (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.42–2.36), after which the association attenuated to null, suggesting diagnostic bias. Following a cancer diagnosis, health care utilization or cognitive consequences of diagnosis or treatment may increase chance of receiving a dementia diagnosis, creating potential diagnostic bias in electronic health records-based studies.

Previous clinical studies have reported adverse cognitive outcomes for people living with HIV (PLWH), but there are no population-based studies comparing cognitive function between older PLWH and comparators without HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed baseline data of 40 + years-old participants in “Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa” (HAALSI) cohort. We measured cognition using a battery of conventional instruments assessing orientation, immediate- and delayed-recall, and numeracy (N = 4560), and the Oxford Cognitive Screen [OCS]-Plus, a novel instrument for low-literacy populations, assessing memory, language, visual-spatial ability, and executive functioning (N = 1997). Linear regression models comparing cognitive scores between participants with and without HIV were adjusted for sex, education, age, country of birth, father’s occupation, ever-consumed alcohol, and asset index. PLWH scored on average 0.06 (95% CI 0.01–0.12) standard deviation (SD) units higher on the conventional cognitive function measure and 0.02 (95% CI − 0.07 to 0.04) SD units lower on the OCS-Plus measure than HIV-negative participants. We found higher cognitive function scores for PLWH compared to people without HIV when using a conventional measure of cognitive function but not when using a novel instrument for low-literacy settings.