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Background Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. Methods We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. Results For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. Conclusions Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses.

Electronic health records (EHR) might be a useful resource to study the risk factors and clinical care of people with dementia. We sought to determine the diagnostic validity of dementia captured in linked EHR. A cohort of adults in linked primary care, hospital, disease registry and mortality records in England, [CALIBER (CArdiovascular disease research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records)]. The proportion of individuals with dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular and rare dementia in each data source was determined. A comparison was made of symptoms and care between people with dementia and age-, sex- and general practice-matched controls, using conditional logistic regression. The lifetime risk and prevalence of dementia and mortality rates in people with and without dementia were estimated with random-effects Poisson models. There were 47,386 people with dementia: 12,633 with Alzheimer's disease, 9540 with vascular and 1539 with rare dementia. Seventy-four percent of cases had corroborating evidence of dementia. People with dementia were more likely to live in a deprived area (conditional OR 1.26;95%CI:1.20-1.31 most vs least deprived), have documented memory impairment (cOR = 11.97;95%CI:11.24-12.75), falls (cOR = 2.36;95%CI:2.31-2.41), depression (cOR = 2.03; 95%CI:1.98-2.09) or anxiety (cOR = 1.27; 95%CI:1.23-1.32). The lifetime risk of dementia at age 65 was 9.2% (95%CI:9.0%-9.4%), in men and 14.9% (95%CI:14.7%-15.1%) in women. The population prevalence of recorded dementia increased from 0.3% in 2000 to 0.7% in 2010. A higher mortality rate was observed in people with than without dementia (IRR = 1.56;95%CI:1.54-1.58). Most people with a record of dementia in linked UK EHR had some corroborating evidence for diagnosis. The estimated 10-year risk of dementia was higher than published population-based estimations. EHR are therefore a promising source of data for dementia research.

Although breast density is a powerful factor for predicting the risk of developing breast cancer, unfortunately current methods of measuring mammographic density are not entirely satisfactory. This Review analyzes the different factors affecting breast density and how to consider them so that the accuracy of individual risk assessments can be improved. High mammographic density is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, and of all known breast cancer risk factors has the greatest attributable fraction. Mammographic density is estimated to account for 16% of all breast cancers, but can be altered by endogenous and exogenous hormonal factors, and generally declines with age. Confounding factors such as age, parity, menopausal status and BMI make the interpretation of mammographic density particularly challenging. Furthermore, none of the established means of measuring mammographic density are entirely satisfactory because they are time consuming or subjective. It is hoped that by adding information regarding mammographic density to existing models of breast cancer risk assessment, the accuracy of individual risk assessments can be improved. Although mammographic density has clearly been shown to be a powerful factor for predicting the risk of developing breast cancer, its potential role in assessing hormonal preventive regimens and helping to tailor screening algorithms cannot be fully realized until we have more-precise, simple and reproducible density measures. Key Points Mammographic density appears as white areas on a mammogram and it comprises fibroglandular tissue, stroma and epithelium within the breast The current ways of measuring mammographic density are time consuming and subjective Mammographic density is one of the most important indicators of breast cancer risk; the greater the mammographic density the greater the breast cancer risk Mammographic density can be altered by endogenous and exogenous hormonal factors, and generally declines with age Models to predict a woman's risk of breast cancer from her mammographic density and other risk factors are currently being developed Mammographic density has considerable potential in risk stratification and in monitoring the effects of interventions in risk alteration, but further work on measuring density and risk prediction is required

Delirium is a common and serious acute neuropsychiatric syndrome which is often missed in routine clinical care. Inattention is the core cognitive feature. Diagnostic test accuracy (including cut-points) of a smartphone Delirium App (DelApp) for assessing attention deficits was assessed in older hospital inpatients. This was a case-control study of hospitalised patients aged ≥65 years with delirium (with or without pre-existing cognitive impairment), who were compared to patients with dementia without delirium, and patients without cognitive impairment. Reference standard delirium assessment, which included a neuropsychological test battery, was based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 criteria. A separate blinded assessor administered the DelApp arousal assessment (score 0-4) and attention task (0-6) yielding an overall score of 0 to 10 (lower scores indicate poorer performance). Analyses included receiver operating characteristic curves and sensitivity and specificity. Optimal cut-points for delirium detection were determined using Youden's index. A total of 187 patients were recruited, mean age 83.8 (range 67-98) years, 152 (81%) women; n = 61 with delirium; n = 61 with dementia without delirium; and n = 65 without cognitive impairment. Patients with delirium performed poorly on the DelApp (median score = 4/10; inter-quartile range 3.0, 5.5) compared to patients with dementia (9.0; 5.5, 10.0) and those without cognitive impairment (10.0; 10.0, 10.0). Area under the curve for detecting delirium was 0.89 (95% Confidence Interval 0.84, 0.94). At an optimal cut-point of ≤8, sensitivity was 91.7% (84.7%, 98.7%) and specificity 74.2% (66.5%, 81.9%) for discriminating delirium from the other groups. Specificity was 68.3% (56.6%, 80.1%) for discriminating delirium from dementia (cut-point ≤6). Patients with delirium (with or without pre-existing cognitive impairment) perform poorly on the DelApp compared to patients with dementia and those without cognitive impairment. A cut-point of ≤8/10 is suggested as having optimal sensitivity and specificity. The DelApp is a promising tool for assessment of attention deficits associated with delirium in older hospitalised adults, many of whom have prior cognitive impairment, and should be further validated in representative patient cohorts.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199026.].

Key summary points Aim To investigate performance of the Months of the Year Backwards (MOTYB) test in older hospitalised patients with delirium, dementia, and no cognitive impairment. Findings Half of the patients with delirium (46%) could not engage with MOTYB compared to only 11% of patients with dementia without delirium. In patients able to give responses, those with delirium or dementia performed significantly worse than those without cognitive impairment. Message Our findings show the potential value of analysing response patterns, especially initial engagement, self-correction, and ability to continue to do the task in addition to considering exclusively the capacity to correctly recite the months until July, June or January. Purpose To investigate performance of the Months of the Year Backwards (MOTYB) test in older hospitalised patients with delirium, dementia, and no cognitive impairment. Methods Secondary analysis of data from a case–control study of 149 hospitalised patients aged ≥ 65 years with delirium [with or without dementia ( N  = 50)], dementia [without delirium ( N  = 46)], and no cognitive impairment ( N  = 53). Verbatim transcripts of MOTYB audio recordings were analysed to determine group differences in response patterns. Results In the total sample [median age 85y (IQR 80–88), 82% female], patients with delirium were more often unable to recite months backward to November (36/50 = 72%) than patients with dementia (21/46 = 46%; p  < 0.01) and both differed significantly from patients without cognitive impairment (2/53 = 4%; p ’s < 0.001). 121/149 (81%) of patients were able to engage with the test. Patients with delirium were more often unable to engage with MOTYB (23/50 = 46%; e.g., due to reduced arousal) than patients with dementia (5/46 = 11%; p  < 0.001); both groups differed significantly ( p ’s < 0.001) from patients without cognitive impairment (0/53 = 0%). There was no statistically significant difference between patients with delirium (2/27 = 7%) and patients with dementia (8/41 = 20%) in completing MOTYB to January, but performance in both groups differed ( p  < 0.001 and p  < 0.02, respectively) from patients without cognitive impairment (35/53 = 66%). Conclusion Delirium was associated with inability to engage with MOTYB and low rates of completion. In patients able to engage with the test, error-free completion rates were low in delirium and dementia. Recording of engagement and patterns of errors may add useful information to MOTYB scoring.

BackgroundMammography is less effective in detecting cancer in dense than in fatty breasts.MethodsWe undertook a systematic search in PubMed to identify studies on women with dense breasts who underwent screening with mammography supplemented with ultrasound. A meta-analysis was undertaken on the proportion of cancers detected only by ultrasound, out of all screen-detected cancers, and the proportion of women with negative mammography who were referred for assessment following ultrasound screening.ResultsTwenty-nine studies satisfied our inclusion criteria. The proportion of total cancers detected only by ultrasound was 0.29 (95% CI: 0.27–0.31), consistent with an approximately 40% increase in the detection of cancers compared to mammography. In the studied populations, this translated into an additional 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4–4.2) screen-detected cases per 1000 mammography-negative women. About 13% (32/248) of cancers were in situ from 17 studies with information on this subgroup. Ultrasound approximately doubled the referral for assessment in three studies with these data.ConclusionsStudies have consistently shown an increased detection of breast cancer by supplementary ultrasound screening. An inclusion of supplementary ultrasound into routine screening will need to consider the availability of ultrasound and diagnostic assessment capacities.

Background Delirium is a common and serious clinical syndrome which is often missed in routine clinical care. The core cognitive feature is inattention. We developed a novel bedside neuropsychological test for assessing inattention in delirium implemented on a smartphone platform (DelApp). We aim to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the DelApp in a representative cohort of older hospitalised patients. Methods This is a prospective study of older non-scheduled hospitalised patients (target n  = 500, age ≥ 65), recruited from elderly care and acute orthopaedic wards. Exclusion criteria are: non-English speakers; severe vision or hearing impairment; photosensitive epilepsy. A structured reference standard delirium assessment based on DSM-5 criteria will be used, which includes a cognitive test battery administered by a trained assessor (Orientation-Memory-Concentration Test, Abbreviated Mental Test-10, Delirium Rating Severity Scale-Revised-98, digit span, months and days backwards, Vigilance A’ test) and assessment of arousal (Observational Scale of Level of Arousal, Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale). Prior change in cognition will be documented using the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly. Patients will be categorized as delirium (with/without dementia), possible delirium, dementia, no cognitive impairment, or undetermined. A separate assessor (blinded to diagnosis and assessments) will administer the DelApp index test within 3 h of the reference standard assessment. The DelApp comprises assessment of arousal (score 0-4) and sustained attention (score 0-6), yielding a total score between 0 and 10 (higher score = better performance). Outcomes (length of stay, mortality and discharge location) will be collected at 12 weeks. We will evaluate a priori cutpoints derived from a previous case-control study. Measures of the accuracy of DelApp will include sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and area under the ROC curve. We plan repeat assessments on up to 4 occasions in a purposive subsample of 30 patients (15 delirium, 15 no delirium) to examine changes over time. Discussion This study evaluates the diagnostic test accuracy of a novel smartphone test for delirium in a representative cohort of older hospitalised patients, including those with dementia. DelApp has the potential to be a convenient, objective method of improving delirium assessment for older people in acute care. Trial registration Clinical trials.gov, NCT02590796 . Registered on 29 Oct 2015. Protocol version 5, dated 25 July 2016.

PurposeReliable biomarkers for predicting subsequent sepsis among patients with suspected acute infection are lacking. In patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with suspected acute infection, we aimed to evaluate the reliability and discriminant ability of 47 leukocyte biomarkers as predictors of sepsis (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score ≥ 2 at 24 h and/or 72 h following ED presentation).MethodsIn a multi-centre cohort study in four EDs and intensive care units (ICUs), we standardised flow-cytometric leukocyte biomarker measurement and compared patients with suspected acute infection (cohort-1) with two comparator cohorts: ICU patients with established sepsis (cohort-2), and ED patients without infection or systemic inflammation but requiring hospitalization (cohort-3).ResultsBetween January 2014 and February 2016, we recruited 272, 59 and 75 patients to cohorts 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Of 47 leukocyte biomarkers, 14 were non-reliable, and 17 did not discriminate between the three cohorts. Discriminant analyses for predicting sepsis within cohort-1 were undertaken for eight neutrophil (cluster of differentiation antigens (CD) CD15; CD24; CD35; CD64; CD312; CD11b; CD274; CD279), seven monocyte (CD35; CD64; CD312; CD11b; HLA-DR; CD274; CD279) and a CD8 T-lymphocyte biomarker (CD279). Individually, only higher neutrophil CD279 [OR 1.78 (95% CI 1.23–2.57); P = 0.002], higher monocyte CD279 [1.32 (1.03–1.70); P = 0.03], and lower monocyte HLA-DR [0.73 (0.55–0.97); P = 0.03] expression were associated with subsequent sepsis. With logistic regression the optimum biomarker combination was increased neutrophil CD24 and neutrophil CD279, and reduced monocyte HLA-DR expression, but no combination had clinically relevant predictive validity.ConclusionsFrom a large panel of leukocyte biomarkers, immunosuppression biomarkers were associated with subsequent sepsis in ED patients with suspected acute infection.Clinical trial registrationNCT02188992.

BackgroundIn patients with suspected angina pectoris, CT coronary angiography (CTCA) clarifies the diagnosis, directs appropriate investigations and therapies, and reduces clinical events. The effect on patient symptoms is currently unknown.MethodsIn a prospective open-label parallel group multicentre randomised controlled trial, 4146 patients with suspected angina due to coronary heart disease were randomised 1:1 to receive standard care or standard care plus CTCA. Symptoms and quality of life were assessed over 6 months using the Seattle Angina Questionnaire and Short Form 12.ResultsBaseline scores indicated mild physical limitation (74±0.4), moderate angina stability (44±0.4), modest angina frequency (68±0.4), excellent treatment satisfaction (92±0.2) and moderate impairment of quality of life (55±0.3). Compared with standard care alone, CTCA was associated with less marked improvements in physical limitation (difference −1.74 (95% CIs, −3.34 to −0.14), p=0.0329), angina frequency (difference −1.55 (−2.85 to −0.25), p=0.0198) and quality of life (difference −3.48 (−4.95 to −2.01), p<0.0001) at 6 months. For patients undergoing CTCA, improvements in symptoms were greatest in those diagnosed with normal coronary arteries or who had their preventative therapy discontinued, and least in those with moderate non-obstructive disease or had a new prescription of preventative therapy (p<0.001 for all).ConclusionsWhile improving diagnosis, treatment and outcome, CTCA is associated with a small attenuation of the improvements in symptoms and quality of life due to the detection of moderate non-obstructive coronary artery disease.Trial registration number:NCT01149590.