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For most antivenoms there is little information from clinical studies to infer the relationship between dose and efficacy or dose and toxicity. Antivenom dose-finding studies usually recruit too few patients (e.g. fewer than 20) relative to clinically significant event rates (e.g. 5%). Model based adaptive dose-finding studies make efficient use of accrued patient data by using information across dosing levels, and converge rapidly to the contextually defined ‘optimal dose’. Adequate sample sizes for adaptive dose-finding trials can be determined by simulation. We propose a model based, Bayesian phase 2 type, adaptive clinical trial design for the characterisation of optimal initial antivenom doses in contexts where both efficacy and toxicity are measured as binary endpoints. This design is illustrated in the context of dose-finding for Daboia siamensis (Eastern Russell’s viper) envenoming in Myanmar. The design formalises the optimal initial dose of antivenom as the dose closest to that giving a pre-specified desired efficacy, but resulting in less than a pre-specified maximum toxicity. For Daboia siamensis envenoming, efficacy is defined as the restoration of blood coagulability within six hours, and toxicity is defined as anaphylaxis. Comprehensive simulation studies compared the expected behaviour of the model based design to a simpler rule based design (a modified ‘3+3’ design). The model based design can identify an optimal dose after fewer patients relative to the rule based design. Open source code for the simulations is made available in order to determine adequate sample sizes for future adaptive snakebite trials. Antivenom dose-finding trials would benefit from using standard model based adaptive designs. Dose-finding trials where rare events (e.g. 5% occurrence) are of clinical importance necessitate larger sample sizes than current practice. We will apply the model based design to determine a safe and efficacious dose for a novel lyophilised antivenom to treat Daboia siamensis envenoming in Myanmar.

For most antivenoms there is little information from clinical studies to infer the relationship between dose and efficacy or dose and toxicity. Antivenom dose-finding studies usually recruit too few patients (e.g. less than 20) relative to clinically significant event rates (e.g. 5%). Model based adaptive dose-finding studies make efficient use of accrued patient data by using information across dosing levels, and converge rapidly to the contextually defined ‘optimal dose’. Adequate sample sizes for adaptive dose-finding trials can be determined by simulation studies. We propose a model based, Bayesian phase 2 type, adaptive clinical trial design for the characterisation of optimal initial antivenom doses in contexts where both efficacy and toxicity are measured as binary endpoints. This design is illustrated in the context of dose-finding for Daboia siamensis (Eastern Russell’s viper) envenoming in Myanmar. The design formalises the optimal initial dose of antivenom as the dose closest to that giving a pre-specified desired efficacy, but resulting in less than a pre-specified maximum toxicity. For Russell’s viper efficacy is defined as the restoration of blood coagulability within six hours, and toxicity is defined as anaphylaxis. Comprehensive simulation studies compared the expected behaviour of the model based design to a simpler rule based design (a modified ‘3+3’ design). The model based design can identify the optimal dose after fewer patients than the rule based design. Open source code for the simulations can be used to calculate sample sizes under a priori beliefs of efficacy and toxicity. Antivenom dose-finding trials would benefit from using standard model based adaptive designs. Dose-finding trials where rare events (e.g. 5% occurrence) are of clinical importance necessitate larger sample sizes than current practice. We will apply the model based design to determine a safe and efficacious dose for a novel lyophilised antivenom to treat Daboia siamensis envenoming in Myanmar. Snakebite envenoming is one of the most neglected tropical diseases relative to its mortality and morbidity. Antivenoms are the only known effective treatment for snake-bite envenoming but are frequently responsible for high rates of adverse reactions. Clinical development of antivenoms rarely follows the iterative phases of clinical development applied to other drugs. Dosing is typically based on pre-clinical testing. Here we propose a Bayesian model based adaptive design for clinical trials aiming to determine the optimal dose of antivenom needed. Optimality is defined using safety and efficacy thresholds contextual to the study. This design can be applied to all antivenoms which have binary efficacy and toxicity endpoints. Our design formally specifies a desired efficacy and a maximum tolerated toxicity. We use simulation studies to characterise the sample size necessary to determine the optimal dose in different scenarios. The simulation studies highlight the advantages of a model based design over simpler rule based alternatives. We intend to use this design to determine an effective and safe dose of the new lyophilised viper antivenom currently in use to treat Russell’s viper envenoming in Myanmar.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a major health concern globally. Genomic epidemiology is an important tool to assess the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Several mutations have been reported by genome analysis of the SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, we investigated the mutational and phylogenetic analysis of 30 whole-genome sequences for the virus's genomic characteristics in the specimens collected in the early phase of the pandemic (March–June, 2020) and the sudden surge of local transmission (August–September, 2020). The four samples in the early phase of infection were B.6 lineage and located within a clade of the samples collected at the same time in Singapore and Malaysia, while five returnees by rescue flights showed the lineage B. 1.36.1 (three from India), B.1.1 (one from India) and B.1.80 (one from China). However, there was no evidence of local spread from these returnees. Further, all 19 whole-genome sequences collected in the sudden surge of local transmission showed lineage B.1.36. The surge of the second wave on SARS-CoV-2 infection was linked to the single-introduction of a variant (B.1.36) that may result from the strict restriction of international travel and containment efforts. These genomic data provides the useful information to disease control and prevention strategy.

Background To fight the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries have implemented various mitigation measures to contain the spread of the disease. By engaging with health service providers, the community’s participation in adherence to preventive measures is certainly required in the implementation of COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures and its associated factors among the residents, Yangon Region, Myanmar. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study was carried out among 636 residents in Yangon Region, Myanmar, from October to December 2021. A multistage non-probability sampling method, purposively selected for three townships in Yangon Region and convenience sampling for 212 participants from each township, was applied and the data were collected by face-to-face interviews using structured and pretested questionnaires. Data were entered, coded, and analyzed using IBM SPSS version 25.0. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify the significant variables of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures. Results As a level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures, the proportion of residents who had good adherence was 39.3% (95% CI 35.5–43.2%), moderate adherence was 37.6% (95% CI 33.8–41.5%), and poor adherence was 23.1% (95% CI 19.9–26.6%). The age group of 31–40 years (AOR: 3.13, 95% CI 1.62–6.05), 30 years and younger (AOR: 3.22, 95% CI 1.75–5.92), Burmese ethnicity (AOR: 2.52, 95% CI 1.44–4.39), own business (AOR: 3.19, 95% CI 1.15–8.87), high school education level and below (AOR: 1.64, 95% CI 1.02–2.69), less than 280.90 USD of monthly family income (AOR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.01–2.29), low knowledge about COVID-19 (AOR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.26–2.88) were significantly associated with poor adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures. Conclusions In this study, nearly one-fourth of the residents were experiencing poor adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures. Therefore, building up the risk communication through the community using widely used mainstream media, the continuation of disease surveillance and announcement of updated information or advice for the public to increase awareness towards COVID-19, and enforcement to follow the recommended directions and regulations of health institutions are vital to consider for improving the adherence to preventive measures against COVID-19 among the residents.

We developed surveillance guidance for COVID-19 in 9 temporary camps for displaced persons along the Thailand-Myanmar border. Arrangements were made for testing of persons presenting with acute respiratory infection, influenza-like illness, or who met the Thailand national COVID-19 Person Under Investigation case definition. In addition, testing was performed for persons who had traveled outside of the camps in outbreak-affected areas or who departed Thailand as resettling refugees. During the first 18 months of surveillance, May 2020-October 2021, a total of 6,190 specimens were tested, and 15 outbreaks (i.e., >1 confirmed COVID-19 cases) were detected in 7 camps. Of those, 5 outbreaks were limited to a single case. Outbreaks during the Delta variant surge were particularly challenging to control. Adapting and implementing COVID-19 surveillance measures in the camp setting were successful in detecting COVID-19 outbreaks and preventing widespread disease during the initial phase of the pandemic in Thailand.

Background Countries of the Greater Mekong Sub-region aim to achieve malaria elimination by 2030. In the region, malaria is concentrated in high-risk areas and populations such as forest-going mobile and migrant populations (MMPs). However, routine protective measures such as long-lasting insecticidal nets do not prevent all infectious bites in these high-risk populations. Evidence for the effectiveness of a personal protection package tailored to forest-going MMPs which is acceptable, feasible, and cost-effective for reducing malaria transmission is required to inform the malaria elimination toolkit in the region. Methods A personal protection package consisting of long-lasting insecticidal hammock net, insect repellent and health communication pamphlet was developed in consultation with relevant implementing partners from Cambodia and Lao PDR. An open stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial will be conducted over a period of 12 months in a minimum of 488 villages (~ 428 in Lao PDR and ~ 60 in Cambodia) to evaluate the effectiveness of the personal protection package. Villages will be randomised into 11 blocks, with blocks transitioned in random order from control to intervention states at monthly intervals, following a 1-month baseline period. The primary outcome of the trial is the prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infection diagnosed by rapid diagnostic test. Difference in prevalence of malaria infection will be estimated across intervention and control periods using generalized linear mixed modelling. Nested within the stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial is a mixed-methods study to explore the acceptability of the personal protection package, feasibility of implementing a personal protection package as a vector control intervention, and knowledge, attitude and practice of MMPs regarding malaria prevention; and cost-analysis to determine the cost-effectiveness of implementing a personal protection package. Discussion This study, using a rigorous design and mixed-methods methodology, will evaluate whether a personal protection package can reduce residual malaria transmission among forest-going MMPs in Cambodia and Lao PDR. It will also measure implementation research outcomes such as effectiveness of the intervention package, cost-effectiveness, acceptability, and feasibility, in order to inform potential national and regional policy. Trial registration This trial was prospectively registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05117567) on 11th November 2021

ObjectivesTo achieve malaria elimination by 2030, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) adopted a reactive surveillance and response (RASR) strategy of malaria case notification within 1 day, case investigation and classification within 3 days and foci investigation and response within 7 days. It is important to evaluate the performance and feasibility of RASR implementation in Lao PDR so that the strategy may be optimised and better contribute towards the goal of malaria elimination.DesignA mixed-methods study comprising of secondary data analysis of routinely collected malaria surveillance data, quantitative surveys and qualitative consultations was conducted in 2022.SettingPrimary data collections for quantitative surveys and qualitative consultations were conducted in Huaphan, Khammouane, Luangprabang and Savannakhet Provinces of Lao PDR.ParticipantsQuantitative surveys were conducted among malaria programme stakeholders and service providers. Qualitative interviews were conducted with malaria programme stakeholders, and focus group discussions with malaria programme stakeholders, service providers and mobile and migrant populations (MMPs).Outcome measuresOutcomes of interests were awareness and acceptability of current RASR activities by different group of participants, implementation, performance and feasibility of RASR activities including enablers and barriers.ResultsIn Lao PDR, malaria programme stakeholders and service providers were aware of RASR; however, these activities were not well known in MMPs. Respectively, the timeliness of case notification and case investigation was 0.0% and 15.6% in 2018 but increased to 98.0% and 98.6% in 2022. Implementation of RASR was acceptable to the malaria programme stakeholders and service providers, and continued implementation was perceived as feasible. Nevertheless, issues such as low level of community awareness, high level of migration and limitations in health system capacity were identified.ConclusionOverall, the timeliness of case notification and investigation in Lao PDR was high, and malaria programme stakeholders and service providers had positive opinions on RASR. However, some operational and health system-related barriers were identified, which need to be addressed to improve the performance of RASR in Lao PDR.