Explore the vast range of titles available.

The community structure of pelagic zooplankton and micronekton may be a sensitive indicator of changes in environmental conditions within the California Current ecosystem. Substantial oceanographic changes in 2015 and 2016 due to the anomalously warm ocean conditions associated with the ‘warm blob’ and a major El Niño perturbation resulted in onshore and northward advection of warmer and more stratified surface waters resulting in reduced upwelling. Data from fine-mesh pelagic trawl surveys conducted off Oregon and Washington during early summer of 2011 and 2013-2016 were examined for interannual changes in spatial distribution and abundance of fish and invertebrate taxa. Overall species diversity was highest in 2015 and lowest in 2011, but 2016 was similar to the other years, although the evenness was somewhat lower. The community of taxa in both 2015 and 2016 was significantly different from the previously sampled years. Crustacean plankton densities (especially Euphausiidae) were extremely low in both years, and the invertebrate composition became dominated mostly by gelatinous zooplankton. Fishes and cephalopods showed mixed trends overall, but some species such as age-0 Pacific hake were found in relatively high abundances mainly along the shelf break in 2015 and 2016. These results suggest dramatically different pelagic communities were present during the recent warm years with a greater contribution from offshore taxa, especially gelatinous taxa, during 2015 and 2016. The substantial reorganization of the pelagic community has the potential to lead to major alterations in trophic functioning in this normally productive ecosystem.

Rockfish are an important component of West Coast fisheries and California Current food webs, and recruitment (cohort strength) for rockfish populations has long been characterized as highly variable for most studied populations. Research efforts and fisheries surveys have long sought to provide greater insights on both the environmental drivers, and the fisheries and ecosystem consequences, of this variability. Here, variability in the temporal and spatial abundance and distribution patterns of young-of-the-year (YOY) rockfishes are described based on midwater trawl surveys conducted throughout the coastal waters of California Current between 2001 and 2019. Results confirm that the abundance of winter-spawning rockfish taxa in particular is highly variable over space and time. Although there is considerable spatial coherence in these relative abundance patterns, there are many years in which abundance patterns are very heterogeneous over the scale of the California Current. Results also confirm that the high abundance levels of YOY rockfish observed during the 2014–2016 large marine heatwave were largely coastwide events. Species association patterns of pelagic YOY for over 20 rockfish taxa in space and time are also described. The overall results will help inform future fisheries-independent surveys, and will improve future indices of recruitment strength used to inform stock assessment models and marine ecosystem status reports.

The Northern California Current is a highly productive marine upwelling ecosystem that is economically and ecologically important. It is home to both commercially harvested species and those that are federally listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Recently, there has been a global shift from single-species fisheries management to ecosystem-based fisheries management, which acknowledges that more complex dynamics can reverberate through a food web. Here, we have integrated new research into an end-to-end ecosystem model (i.e., physics to fisheries) using data from long-term ocean surveys, phytoplankton satellite imagery paired with a vertically generalized production model, a recently assembled diet database, fishery catch information, species distribution models, and existing literature. This spatially-explicit model includes 90 living and detrital functional groups ranging from phytoplankton, krill, and forage fish to salmon, seabirds, and marine mammals, and nine fisheries that occur off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. This model was updated from previous regional models to account for more recent changes in the Northern California Current (e.g., increases in market squid and some gelatinous zooplankton such as pyrosomes and salps), to expand the previous domain to increase the spatial resolution, to include data from previously unincorporated surveys, and to add improved characterization of endangered species, such as Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and southern resident killer whales ( Orcinus orca ). Our model is mass-balanced, ecologically plausible, without extinctions, and stable over 150-year simulations. Ammonium and nitrate availability, total primary production rates, and model-derived phytoplankton time series are within realistic ranges. As we move towards holistic ecosystem-based fisheries management, we must continue to openly and collaboratively integrate our disparate datasets and collective knowledge to solve the intricate problems we face. As a tool for future research, we provide the data and code to use our ecosystem model.

Spatial distributions of marine fauna are determined by complex interactions between environmental conditions and animal behaviors. As climate change leads to warmer, more acidic, and less oxygenated oceans, species are shifting away from their historical distribution ranges, and these trends are expected to continue into the future. Correlative Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to project future habitat extent for marine species, with many different statistical methods available. However, it is vital to assess how different statistical methods behave under novel environmental conditions before using these models for management advice, and to consider whether future projections based on these techniques are biologically reasonable. In this study, we built SDMs for adults and larvae of two ecologically important pelagic fishes in the California Current System: Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax). We used five different SDM methods, ranging from simple (thermal niche model) to complex (artificial neural networks). Our results show that some SDMs trained on data collected between 2003 and 2013 lost substantial predictive skill when applied to observations from more recent years, when ocean temperatures associated with a marine heatwave were outside the range of historical measurements. This decrease in skill was particularly apparent for adult sardine, which showed non-stationary relationships between catch locations and sea surface temperature through time. While sardine adults and larvae shifted their distributions markedly during the marine heatwave, anchovy largely maintained their historical spatiotemporal distributions. Our results suggest that correlative relationships between species and their environment can become unreliable during anomalous conditions. Understanding the underlying physiology of marine species is therefore essential for the construction of SDMs that are robust to rapidly changing environments. Developing distribution models that offer skillful predictions into the future for species such as sardine and anchovy, which are migratory and include separate sub-stocks, may be particularly challenging.

In the northern California Current, Columbia River Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that return as adults in spring are primarily hatchery-produced, though they include natural-origin fish listed under the US Endangered Species Act. Anomalously warm ocean conditions persisted in the California Current during 2015 (>2.5°C above normal) through the winter period when fish prey resources of juvenile salmon develop and during spring as salmon enter the ocean. The biomass of ichthyoplankton in winter 2015 was the 4th highest of our 18 yr time-series (1998–2015), predicting good food conditions for salmon and high adult salmon returns several years later. The larval composition of 2015 ichthyoplankton included abnormally large amounts of the warm-water taxa northern anchovy Engraulis mordax and rockfish Sebastes spp. When the composition of ichthyoplankton is dominated by warm-water taxa in winter, we would predict poor returns of salmon. May diets of juvenile Chinook salmon collected in coastal waters reflected high proportions of juvenile rockfish, no evidence of northern anchovy, and most closely resembled those of other warm years. June diets also reflected a warm prey community being consumed, predicting poor returns of salmon. Chinook salmon had high percentages of empty stomachs and were small and thin in 2015, with fish weighing 17.6% less than the same-length fish in a cold year (2008). Lower condition of juvenile Chinook salmon related to decreased returns of adult salmon. Overall, all but one biological predictor (biomass of prey) suggests that the prospects for the 2015 ocean-entry smolts were not favorable for survival.

The bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli is the most abundant fish in Chesapeake Bay (USA) and is a vital link between plankton and piscivores within the trophic structure of this large estuarine ecosystem. Baywide distributions and abundances of bay anchovy eggs and larvae, and larval growth, were analyzed in a 5 yr program to evaluate temporal and spatial variability based on research surveys in the 1995–1999 spawning seasons. Effects of environmental variability and abundance of zooplankton that serve as prey for larval bay anchovy were analyzed. In the years of these surveys, 97.6% of eggs and 98.8% of larvae occurred in the polyhaline lower bay. Median egg and larval abundances differed more than 10-fold for surveys conducted in the 5 yr and were highest in the lower bay. Within years, median larval abundance (ind. m−2) in the lower bay was generally 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than upper-bay abundance. Salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen explained 12% of the spatial and temporal variability in egg abundances and accounted for 27% of the variability in larval abundances. The mean, baywide growth rate for larvae over the 5 yr period was 0.75 ± 0.01 mm d−1, and was best explained by zooplankton concentration and feeding incidence. Among years, mean growth rates ranged from 0.68 (in 1999) to 0.81 (in 1998) mm d−1 and were fastest in the upper bay. We identified environmental factors, especially salinity, that contributed to broadscale variability in egg and larval production.

Diets of juvenile coho Oncorhynchus kisutch and Chinook O. tshawytscha salmon are made up primarily of winter-spawning fish taxa in the late-larval and early juvenile stages that are undersampled in plankton and larger trawl nets. Although we have no direct measure of the availability of fish prey important to juvenile salmon during early marine residence, we do have data on the larval stage of their prey that may be used as a surrogate for the later stages. Data on these prey items were obtained from ichthyoplankton samples collected along the Newport Oregon Hydrographic line (44.65° N) during January–March in 1998–2010. We explored winter biomass of prey fish larvae as a potential indicator of marine feeding conditions for young salmon the following spring. The proportion of total winter ichthyoplankton biomass considered to be common salmon fish prey fluctuated from 13.9% in 2006 to 95.0% in 2000. The relationship between biomass of fish larvae in winter and subsequent coho salmon survival was highly significant (r² = 50.0, p = 0.004). When the 2 outlier years of 1998 (El Niño) and 1999 (La Niña) were removed, this relationship was also highly significant for spring Chinook (r² = 70.7, p = 0.0002) and significant for fall Chinook salmon (r² = 34.0, p = 0.03) returns. Winter larval fish composition showed a high degree of overlap with juvenile salmon diets during May, but less overlap in June. Larval fishes appeared to be an early and cost-effective indicator of ocean ecosystem conditions and future juvenile salmon survival.

Effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem dynamics are widespread. Oceanographic conditions vital to biological communities have already shown changes, resulting in negative impacts on several of the world’s largest fisheries. The Northern California Current (NCC) is a highly productive system that supports many important fisheries. In addition to large-scale oceanographic forcing and seasonal up- and downwelling cycles, in the last decade, the NCC also experienced two distinct marine heatwaves (MHWs) that resulted in pervasive ecosystem alterations. The 2014–16 and 2019 MHWs had contrasting oceanic and atmospheric origins and different effects on ocean temperature, providing the opportunity to identify the mechanisms important to juvenile fish recruitment processes and how they may be differentially impacted by future warming scenarios. We utilized a five-year time series (2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019) of larval fish concentration, growth, and diet as a natural experiment to investigate the impact of MHWs as well as two neutral years on cabezon ( Scorpaenicthys marmoratus ). Findings include the first published measurement of larval cabezon daily growth rates. Mean growth rates were higher during MHWs, suggesting that elevated temperatures did not pose a major growth or survival challenge. Cabezon’s fast growth response to MHW conditions demonstrates that larval cabezon were able to sustain fast growth in warmer temperatures, and were not likely prey limited. Further, larval cabezon gut fullness did not differ significantly among years. Instead, differences in diet composition and prey quality varied with larval growth. Relative to slower-growing larvae, larval cabezon with high growth rates consumed larger prey items, including larval euphausiids and amphipods. Consistent with these patterns of larval growth, nearshore recruitment of juvenile cabezon was also high during MHW years. Our findings highlight the importance of phenological coupling, or matches in timing, between cabezon and euphausiid population dynamics in that larval cabezon exhibited fast growth when the timing of flexion was coupled with the euphausiid population transition to a larger, omnivorous larval stage. Results of this study suggest that larval cabezon’s variable growth and broad diet coupled with selection for large, nutrient dense prey may be a source of resilience for its population dynamics.

The California Current System (CCS) has experienced large fluctuations in environmental conditions in recent years that have dramatically affected the biological community. Here we synthesize remotely sensed, hydrographic, and biological survey data from throughout the CCS in 2019–2020 to evaluate how recent changes in environmental conditions have affected community dynamics at multiple trophic levels. A marine heatwave formed in the north Pacific in 2019 and reached the second greatest area ever recorded by the end of summer 2020. However, high atmospheric pressure in early 2020 drove relatively strong Ekman-driven coastal upwelling in the northern portion of the CCS and warm temperature anomalies remained far offshore. Upwelling and cooler temperatures in the northern CCS created relatively productive conditions in which the biomass of lipid-rich copepod species increased, adult krill size increased, and several seabird species experienced positive reproductive success. Despite these conditions, the composition of the fish community in the northern CCS remained a mixture of both warm- and cool-water-associated species. In the southern CCS, ocean temperatures remained above average for the seventh consecutive year. Abundances of juvenile fish species associated with productive conditions were relatively low, and the ichthyoplankton community was dominated by a mixture of oceanic warm-water and cosmopolitan species. Seabird species associated with warm water also occurred at greater densities than cool-water species in the southern CCS. The population of northern anchovy, which has been resurgent since 2017, continued to provide an important forage base for piscivorous fishes, offshore colonies of seabirds, and marine mammals throughout the CCS. Coastal upwelling in the north, and a longer-term trend in warming in the south, appeared to be controlling the community to a much greater extent than the marine heatwave itself.

2022 marked the third consecutive La Niña and extended the longest consecutive stretch of negative Oceanic Niño Index since 1998-2001. While physical and biological conditions in winter and spring largely adhered to prior La Niña conditions, summer and fall were very different. Similar to past La Niña events, in winter and spring coastal upwelling was either average or above average, temperature average or below average, salinity generally above average. In summer and fall, however, upwelling and temperature were generally average or slightly below average, salinity was close to average and chlorophyll a was close to average. Again, as during prior La Niña events, biomass of northern/southern copepods was above/below average off Oregon in winter, and body size of North Pacific krill in northern California was above average in winter. By contrast, later in the year the abundance of northern krill dropped off Oregon while southern copepods increased and body sizes of North Pacific krill fell in northern California. Off Oregon and Washington abundances of market squid and Pacific pompano (indicators of warm, non-typical La Niña conditions) were high. In the 20 th century, Northern anchovy recruitment tended to be high during cold conditions, but despite mostly warm conditions from 2015-2021 anchovy populations boomed and remained high in 2022. Resident seabird reproductive success, which tended in the past to increase during productive La Niña conditions was highly variable throughout the system as common murre and pelagic cormorant, experienced complete reproductive failure at Yaquina Head, Oregon while Brandt’s cormorant reproduction was average. At three sampling locations off central California, however, common murre reproduction was close to or above average while both pelagic and Brandt’s cormorant were above average. California sealion reproduction has been above average each year since 2016, and pup weight was also above average in 2022, likely in response not to La Niña or El Niño but continuous high abundance of anchovy. The highly variable and often unpredictable physical and biological conditions in 2022 highlight a growing recognition of disconnects between basin-scale indices and local conditions in the CCE. “July-December 2022 is the biggest outlier from individual “strong” La Niña (events) ever going back to the 50s.” – Nate Mantua