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This study evaluates how well key elements of freshwater resilience (e.g., hydrographic, physical habitat, and condition variables) explain the persistence of native fish species over time. Using the Temporal Beta Index (TBI), we quantify the change in fish species presence-absence in functionally connected networks within California to determine which watersheds within the network experienced significant changes in fish community composition. Random forest (RF) models were used to explore how the suite of network attributes influenced TBI and how the relationships varied by ecoregion. By integrating historical and contemporary fish distribution records with comprehensive datasets on fish passage barriers, stream habitat typologies, and watershed conditions, the analysis provides evidence that fragmentation—primarily driven by a century of dam construction—has impacted the persistence of fish species throughout the state. These results underscore the importance of maintaining and restoring interconnected river networks to preserve habitat heterogeneity, ensure the continued functionality of freshwater processes, and promote long-term ecological stability amidst ongoing and future environmental challenges. This research provides a framework to evaluate what factors contributed to fish loss in the past, thereby offering insights into enhancing the resilience of freshwater ecosystems and persistence of freshwater species into the future.

Motivated by declines in biodiversity exacerbated by climate change, we identified a network of conservation sites designed to provide resilient habitat for species, while supporting dynamic shifts in ranges and changes in ecosystem composition. Our 12-y study involved 289 scientists in 14 study regions across the conterminous United States (CONUS), and our intent was to support local-, regional-, and national-scale conservation decisions. To ensure that the network represented all species and ecosystems, we stratified CONUS into 68 ecoregions, and, within each, we comprehensively mapped the geophysical settings associated with current ecosystem and species distributions. To identify sites most resilient to climate change, we identified the portion of each geophysical setting with the most topoclimate variability (high landscape diversity) likely to be accessible to dispersers (high local connectedness). These “resilient sites” were overlaid with conservation priority maps from 104 independent assessments to indicate current value in supporting recognized biodiversity. To identify key connectivity areas for sustaining species movement in response to climate change, we codeveloped a fine-scale representation of human modification and ran a circuit-theory-based analysis that emphasized movement potential along geographic climate gradients. Integrating areas with high values for two or more factors, we identified a representative, resilient, and connected network of biodiverse lands covering 35% of CONUS. Because the network connects climatic gradients across 250,000 biodiversity elements and multiple resilient examples of all geophysical settings in every ecoregion, it could form the spatial foundation for targeted land protection and other conservation strategies to sustain a diverse, dynamic, and adaptive world.

Describing the physical habitat diversity of stream types is important for understanding stream ecosystem complexity, but also prioritizing management of stream ecosystems, especially those that are rare. We developed a stream classification system of six physical habitat layers (size, gradient, hydrology, temperature, valley confinement, and substrate) for approximately 1 million stream reaches within the Eastern United States in order to conduct an inventory of different types of streams and examine stream diversity. Additionally, we compare stream diversity to patterns of anthropogenic disturbances to evaluate associations between stream types and human disturbances, but also to prioritize rare stream types that may lack natural representation in the landscape. Based on combinations of different layers, we estimate there are anywhere from 1,521 to 5,577 different physical types of stream reaches within the Eastern US. By accounting for uncertainty in class membership, these estimates could range from 1,434 to 6,856 stream types. However, 95% of total stream distance is represented by only 30% of the total stream habitat types, which suggests that most stream types are rare. Unfortunately, as much as one third of stream physical diversity within the region has been compromised by anthropogenic disturbances. To provide an example of the stream classification's utility in management of these ecosystems, we isolated 5% of stream length in the entire region that represented 87% of the total physical diversity of streams to prioritize streams for conservation protection, restoration, and biological monitoring. We suggest that our stream classification framework could be important for exploring the diversity of stream ecosystems and is flexible in that it can be combined with other stream classification frameworks developed at higher resolutions (meso- and micro-habitat scales). Additionally, the exploration of physical diversity helps to estimate the rarity and patchiness of riverscapes over large region and assist in conservation and management.

Many studies illustrate variable patterns in individual species distribution shifts in response to changing temperature. However, an assemblage, a group of species that shares a common environmental niche, will likely exhibit similar responses to climate changes, and these community-level responses may have significant implications for ecosystem function. Therefore, we examine the relationship between observed shifts of species in assemblages and regional climate velocity (i.e., the rate and direction of change of temperature isotherms). The assemblages are defined in two sub-regions of the U.S. Northeast Shelf that have heterogeneous oceanography and bathymetry using four decades of bottom trawl survey data and we explore temporal changes in distribution, spatial range extent, thermal habitat area, and biomass, within assemblages. These sub-regional analyses allow the dissection of the relative roles of regional climate velocity and local physiography in shaping observed distribution shifts. We find that assemblages of species associated with shallower, warmer waters tend to shift west-southwest and to shallower waters over time, possibly towards cooler temperatures in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Maine, while species assemblages associated with relatively cooler and deeper waters shift deeper, but with little latitudinal change. Conversely, species assemblages associated with warmer and shallower water on the broad, shallow continental shelf from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to Georges Bank shift strongly northeast along latitudinal gradients with little change in depth. Shifts in depth among the southern species associated with deeper and cooler waters are more variable, although predominantly shifts are toward deeper waters. In addition, spatial expansion and contraction of species assemblages in each region corresponds to the area of suitable thermal habitat, but is inversely related to assemblage biomass. This suggests that assemblage distribution shifts in conjunction with expansion or contraction of thermal habitat acts to compress or stretch marine species assemblages, which may respectively amplify or dilute species interactions to an extent that is rarely considered. Overall, regional differences in climate change effects on the movement and extent of species assemblages hold important implications for management, mitigation, and adaptation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf.

Understanding plant–plant facilitation is critical for predicting how plant community function will respond to changing disturbance and climate. In longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystems of the southeastern United States, understanding processes that affect pine reproduction is imperative for conservation efforts that aim to maintain ecosystem resilience across its wide geographic range and edaphic gradients. Variation in wildland fire and plant–plant interactions may be overlooked in “coarse filter” restoration management, where actions are often prescribed over a variety of ecological conditions with an assumed outcome. For example, hardwood reduction techniques are commonly deemed necessary for ecological restoration of longleaf pine ecosystems, as hardwoods are presumed competitors with longleaf pine seedlings. Natural regeneration dynamics are difficult to test experimentally given the infrequent and irregular mast seed events of the longleaf pine. Using a long‐term, large‐scale restoration experiment and a long‐term monitoring data site at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida ( USA ), this study explores the influence of native fire‐intolerant oaks on longleaf regeneration. We test for historical observations of hardwood facilitation against the null hypothesis of competitive exclusion. Our results provide evidence of hardwood facilitation on newly germinated longleaf pine seedlings (<2 yr old) after two mast seeding events (1996, 2011). Using regression‐tree and Kaplan–Meier survival analyses, we found that deciduous oak midstory density was the most significant variable associated with longleaf pine seedling survival rates in the first 2 yr after germination. We found that as few as 43 oak midstory stems ha −1 were sufficient to facilitate seedling survival, but as many as 1400 stems ha −1 maintained facilitation without competitive exclusion of seedlings. We found that 1.5‐yr‐old pine seedlings were more moisture stressed under more open canopy conditions when compared to those immediately adjacent to a midstory oak canopy. Recognition that deciduous oaks are important facilitators of longleaf seedling establishment on xeric sites represents a significant departure from conventional wisdom and current management practices that has largely focused on competitive exclusion. This points to a critical role of a deciduous oak midstory of moderate densities for long‐term ecosystem resilience in xeric longleaf pine ecosystems in light of climate uncertainty.

We examine the efficiency with which a suite of ecosystem services can be restored by different reforestation configurations. We use a spatial analysis to quantify the ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies of five equal-area, large-scale bottomland hardwood reforestation scenarios for a study area in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Each reforestation configuration is designed to achieve a different environmental objective: nutrient retention, intact riparian and floodplain areas, forest breeding bird habitat, and black bear habitat connectivity. A random reforestation of the same area is also created to represent an opportunistically driven scenario. The opportunistic reforestation delivered services between 85% and 94% less efficiently than targeted reforestation. We also find a distinct service trade-off between reforestation to address water quality and reforestation to provide habitat for large vertebrates. This analysis underscores the importance of spatially quantifying ecosystem services and their trade-offs when seeking to optimize the ecosystem service benefits of restoration.

The use of reference models as templates of historical or natural conditions to assess restoration progress is inherently logical; however, difficulties occur in application because of the need to incorporate temporal variation in ecosystems caused by disturbance and succession, as well as seasonal, interannual, or decadal variability. The landscape-scale restoration of the globally threatened and fire-dependent longleaf pine ecosystem in the southeastern United States is an example in which restoration efforts are even more complicated by the limited availability of extant reference sites. This study uses the dynamic reference conceptual framework to assess the direction and rate of recovery with respect to biodiversity restoration goals using a 15-year vegetation data set from an experimental restoration treatment in fire-excluded, hardwood-encroached longleaf pine sandhills. We compared ground-cover vegetation response to midstory hardwood removal through herbicide application, mechanical removal, and fire only. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordinations and proportional similarity analyses suggest that, while vegetation changed in all treatments over time, no differences in species composition or hardwood density in the ground cover were attributable to hardwood reduction treatments after 15 years with frequent prescribed fire. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that considerable variability is associated with reference sites over time. Sites identified in 1994 as attainable restoration targets had become a moving target themselves, changing in magnitude consistent with alterations in restoration plots attributable to treatment effects and shaped by the modest increase in fire frequency imposed since 1998. In a broad restoration context, this study demonstrates a conceptual framework to better understand and integrate the range of spatial and temporal variation associated with the best available reference sites. It also illustrates a practical tool for statistically defining reference sites and for measuring restoration success in continually changing conditions that should be widely applicable to other ecosystems and restoration goals.

Recognition of spatial heterogeneity of fire at fine scales is emerging, particularly in ecosystems characterized by frequent, low-intensity fire regimes. Differences in heat flux associated with variation in fuel and moisture conditions create microsites that affect survivorship and establishment of species. We studied the mechanisms by which fire affects seed germination using exposure of seeds to fire surrogates (moist and dry heat). Tolerance (survival) and germination responses of six perennial, herbaceous legume species common to the fire-prone longleaf pine–wiregrass ecosystem of the southeastern USA were examined the following heat treatments. Moist heat was more effective in stimulating germination than dry heat flux for most species examined. We also compared intrinsic seed properties (relative seed coat hardness, percent moisture, and seed mass) among species relative to their heat tolerance and heat-stimulated germination responses. Seed coat hardness was closely associated with the probability of dry and moist heat-stimulated germination. Variation among species in optimal germination conditions and degree of heat tolerance likely reflects selection for specific microsites among a potentially diverse suite of conditions associated with a low-intensity fire regime. Fire-stimulated germination, coupled with characteristics of seed dormancy and longevity in the soil, likely fosters favorable recruitment opportunities in restoration situations aimed at reintroducing a frequently prescribed burn regime to a relict longleaf pine site. In a restoration context in which externally available seed pool inputs are limited, this regenerative mechanism may provide a significant source of recruitment for vegetative recovery in a post-fire landscape.

The \"past as prologue\" approach to ecological restoration is increasingly problematic due to global climate change, invasive species, and human perturbations that are outside of evolutionary boundaries, all of which argue for new conceptual approaches to restoration. We present the dynamic reference concept, an approach that quantitatively incorporates the temporal and spatial variation of reference ecosystems such that targets reflect ecological dynamism. Success is measured by simultaneously quantifying changes in reference and restoration sites over time. To illustrate the practical application of this concept, we present a case study of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) restoration on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, USA. We use Mahalanobis distance with non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination to quantify the dynamic nature of reference plots and the extent to which restoration sites move toward them. Reference ecosystems were first defined by expert judgment and ecological models including maximum entropy. We then further refined restoration targets through data analysis using Mahalanobis distance to determine plots that were within the 90% confidence region of initial benchmark species composition. Species composition of benchmark sites was more resilient than restoration sites, i.e., changing less with a natural disturbance regime of frequent fire. Restoration sites with higher fire frequency moved more rapidly towards the reference conditions than sites with fewer fires. By quantifying the \"moving target\" of reference ecosystems while simultaneously measuring change of restoration sites, this application of the dynamic reference concept offers promise to manage for reference conditions that are achievable in a world where change is the norm.